Auckland Mayor 2010

Front page Sunday Star Times - Banks is history.

He needs to sack his campaign team. Why oh why didn't they do TV advertising?

Too late now.

Thats a HUGE lead... no way can Banks come back now! margin of error +/- 4.1% and about a 30% lead...

[www.horizonpoll.co.nz]

Come on Banks buyers...feed us please!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2010 11:02AM by corbusian.

The really telling statistic is that Brown has a 12% lead amongst people who backed National at the last election!!

Aaron how could you get it so WRONG

Guys thats not a scientific poll, its an online one. Farrar's done a post recently about the dangers of them. The poll means nothing basically.

Aaron who?

Art Wrote:
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> Aaron who?


Exactly

polaris Wrote:
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> Guys thats not a scientific poll, its an online
> one. Farrar's done a post recently about the
> dangers of them. The poll means nothing basically.


Wouldn't pay much attention to Farrar's posting as he is out of touch, just anti Brown and logic doesn't count. Comes from the same posionous stable as that other blogger standing for Council on the North Shore.

Agree with Art

"The survey is weighted age, gender, ethnicity, employment status, personal income and party vote 2008. It has a maximum margin of error at the 95% confidence level of +/- 4.1%"

The poll clearly has some scientific basis and is not just a random online one!

@Art: Sorry to say, DPF is on the money on that question.

The Horizon "Poll" is a self-selected piece of nonsense. Its population isn't "Auckland voters". It's "subscribers to the Horizon website/newsletter". Horizon seems to treat the subset of its subscribers who are also Auckland voters as a legitimate sample of Auckland voters – a big no-no.

Horizon is very coy on its website as to how it arrived at its population. Did they simply buy a list of email addresses from a firm that assured Horizon that the list is demographically representative? (Even then, we're not talking about a legitimate sample of the "Auckland voters" population if the same base group of subscribers is used as the population for each poll.) If so, then why does Horizon then allow you to self-select by "Joining the panel"? Is the poll then demographically weighted? (Combined with self-selection, this is potentially a huge source of error that we're not told about: those motivated to "join a panel" are likely also unusually motivated to vote.)

The "Poll" might be accurate. But that would be due only to good luck, and not at all to good adherence to statistical best practice. Or maybe it's simply intended to create a self-fulfilling prophesy (pimping it out to the SST is suggestive on this point). Either Horizon or the SST or both are derelict in their duty if they're reporting this bullshit as a legitimate poll.

Full disclosure: my personal opinion on Banks v Brown (and also Williams v Slater) is a pox on both their houses. The world would be a better place if someone locked them all in a room together with no food somewhere in Antarctica. I love Auckland, but I'm damn glad I don't live there. I'm not unideological (I'm a libertarian), but my hatred of illegitimate statistics trumps ideological factors by far as I write this. I've met DPF a few times, and found him a nice enough guy. But I wouldn't lie or obfuscate to defend him (if he were so low as to want to stoop to that kind of defence—which I doubt—, he's smart enough to do it himself.)

EDIT: the maximum margin of error calculation is illegitimate, for the same reason the whole "Poll" is. It fails to distinguish between the following populations: "subscribers to a website/newsletter who also say they're Auckland voters" and "Auckland voters".



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2010 05:52PM by bkd.

+/-4% at the 95% confidence level with a sample size of 160??? Yeah right. 28% of those surveyed had voted. I don't see how an opinion counts if you don't vote....voting intention means nothing if you haven't voted or don't vote.

I'm curious: what's with the dismissive comments towards Farrar? Insofar as I can see (http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2010/09/online_panel_polls.html) the article shows some understanding of statistical sampling. I wouldn't call that 'out of touch'....why would you Art?

"The weighted survey of 570 city voters, conducted on Thursday and Friday (September 23-24), " .... not sure where you get 160??? sample size from Andrew... ah yes, 28% of the 570 I presume - still seems reasonable at this stage of the game.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2010 06:18PM by corbusian.

Even if the poll is not strictly scientific, the gaps are so big as to be a major concern to the Banks camp I would have thought. And much of the breakdown rings true to me - I've voted National in national politics on every occasion since Roger Douglas was ousted by Labour and yet I can't bring myself to vote for Banks. The Auckland Olympics? Yeah right.

Agree. Banks is pretty much toast. Just didn't think that poll counts as evidence, and was a little dismayed to see traders think it does.

That said, my portfolio summary stats should be borne in mind whenever I say anything...


Portfolio Summary
Current Today’s Change
Net Worth: $0.00 NC
Cash: $0.00 NC
Portfolio: $0.00 NC

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" a poll with a web sourced sample base is limited to a certain group. Surely low income households and the oldies would be missed. Both groups that Brown has polled well with according to the Herald DigiPoll.

The arrogance of Banks and his team have totally under esimated Brown. Brown has run a very professional campaign and got across the region talking to ALL. Banks has targeted the converted not reaching those that he needed to.

Too late all over rover.....thanks for the profit and farewell

...Not quite farewell Create - theres still near 20% to be made if Banks finds traders support at this level, or hopefully try to push even higher. Still money to be made!

corbusian Wrote:
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> ...Not quite farewell Create - theres still near
> 20% to be made if Banks finds traders support at
> this level, or hopefully try to push even higher.
> Still money to be made!


True; as I've said it's not over until the fat lady sings, speaking of which I wonder if Michelle Boag is still on team Banks?

corbusian Wrote:
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> ...Not quite farewell Create - theres still near
> 20% to be made if Banks finds traders support at
> this level, or hopefully try to push even higher.
> Still money to be made!


Corb still profit yes but on Banks stock, good buying at 0.25 as I'm sure Banks mate will be back during the week to pump it up or have they given up on him?

I think Banks' stock is grossly undervalued, i'm not sure what information is out there to suggest Brown is gonna romp home as 85c indicates...Horizon poll is not even a poll, just a hocked-off piece of online chicanery to a leftie newspaper....

Brown might well win but i think its closer to 50/50 or even 60/40...

Banks stock is worth a big fat zero - dosnt matter how close it is a win is a win

Sell I'm happy to buy 200 stocks from you at 0.05 if that's the case

Would if I was holding some :0) happy to sell you Brown at 0.95

Sell Wrote:
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> Would if I was holding some :0) happy to sell you
> Brown at 0.95
>

No need to be holding any, just go short at 5c and make 5c per stock when he loses.

Alan.

polaris Wrote:
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> Sell I'm happy to buy 200 stocks from you at 0.05
> if that's the case



I cannot for the life of me, workout why anyone would sell at 0.05 when other mugs are paying 0.14.

0.14c Oracle? I've sold around 100 at 0,20c today! I just hope they keep buying

Geez corbusian, that is rough when some traded around 0.2316. however when I made that post the current top buy was 0.1401, so I guess you did all right.

The Brown/Banks stock has been a lot of fun over the last 6 or so months - someone/s has sponsored us to the hilt or not as the case maybe.

Sell Wrote:
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> The Brown/Banks stock has been a lot of fun over
> the last 6 or so months - someone/s has sponsored
> us to the hilt or not as the case maybe.


Now if only the election could be declared invalid and we could have the fun all over again.

Puts up hand sheepishly, have 2500 stocks in banks .. at prices before

Strike that, someone just offered to buy 840 stocks