Auckland Mayor 2010

How does it happen?

People think one of the stocks are underpriced and the rest are overpriced.
They buy the one they think is underpriced, but can't afford to sell the overpriced ones.

Peter, there is also the sheer number of clicks needed to short 5-8 stocks. There are at least 3 page loads per stock, so you need to click through 24 pages to short all the stocks.

just put in the total amount you need to buy, and the last price you'll need to pay, and it automatically pays the lower price for the earlier ones.

Hi Peter,

I meant shorting multiple MAYOR stocks rather than multiple different buy/sell orders. I.E., for shorting all the MAYOR stocks, first you'd short MAYOR.STRANG (3 clicks, 3 pageloads), then you'd short MAYOR.BANKS (3 more clicks, 3 more pageloads), then MAYOR.MOORE (3 more clicks, 3 more pageloads), etc etc.

ah right!

I have created a webpage to help keep track of the MAYOR stock prices. More information on my blog post about the Mayor stocks.

The Bundle option will be welcome, that must mean there will also be a "Other" choice which has got to be worth a fair amount at this stage!
- This will sort out the overpricing...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2009 04:17AM by corbusian.

Wow that worked fast. I was in on it in under a minute, and I didn't make a penny. The time it took me to click all the buttons cost me.

I did a fair amount of shorting prior, just gradually reaping the benefits now ...kaching!

Reckon Banksie is still overprice.. not sure he's that popular in the other Auckland cities - The other option has to be a good bet - good knows who will crawl out of the woodwork and take a shine to the mayoralty over the next year!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2009 05:02AM by corbusian.

Thanks Admin.

I haven't made big $$$, but finally being able to unlock all the capital that was tied up in the shorted stocks is a relief!

Note to self: Next time, don't short massively unless you can cover, profitably, whenever you want!

Pipe42, I hear you about the sheer number of page clicks (with required keyboard inputs) to sell off a bundle at market prices. Not only that, but one must add up all of the prices, to see if the market is overpricing, or underpricing the bundle.

I propose that the MARKET price to BUY and SELL the total combined stocks in each bundle be displayed on the bundle screen. This would avoid a lot of time and hassle and would make it instantly clear what is underpriced, what is overpriced, and which bundles are priced just right.

Good idea. Do you want the sum of the sell prices, or the sum of the buys as well?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2009 10:59AM by admin.

Both would be good.

If sum(bids) > 1, then buy a bundle & sell off immediately (or short then cover by buying a bundle).

If sum(asks) < 1, then buy one of each, wait till the price collectively rises, then sell off (this is where sell-a-bundle functionaility would be wicked cool).

I'm meandering: my point's that both pieces of data are useful.

Why is the price of other dropping after a poll shows jbanks isn't the front runner??

Because it was ridiculously overpriced in the first place. Exactly who else is out there who (a) would want the job, and (b) had more chance of getting it than all of the non-Banks candidates combined?

As a catch all it's quite a nice backup. Possibly overpriced I agree. I think more price correction needs to happen though.

Current set up of this stock must always favour banks because if super City does not go ahead he is the incumbent in an election with current boundaries.

There may be maori appointees to a Supercity council or maori party could stand candidates. This aspect could be included.

There is no candidate list yet. The net could be widened further to see who might stick there hand up if they were getting support on iPredict.

Mayor Tim doesn't care where
Michael Laws could be up for a challenge.
Winstons got nothing to do.
Cullens looking for a new job.
Matt McCarten had a go about ten years ago.
Willie Jackson tried in the South
John Tamihere tried in the West.

Larry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Current set up of this stock must always favour
> banks because if super City does not go ahead he
> is the incumbent in an election with current
> boundaries.
>

Yep Larry, as the judging criteria is written, this is so. Seems to me that this adds a bit of a premium to MAYOR.BANKS but, just how much is that.

Larry seems to have the right idea.. Other option covers a heck of a lot of unknowns at this point. but Banksie still would have the incumbent spot

I have a better question: why is iPredict, which is ostensibly an opinion poll with money, so bad at anticipating the results of actual opinion polls? And it's not just this case; I remember that the pricing for the share of votes in the Mt Albert by-election was wildly off base until a real poll dragged it into line. (Not that I'm complaining, since I did quite nicely out of it.)

It would be interesting to get some guidance from Admin on how the "other" stock is going to be handled when/if strong candidates put their names forward - particularly if they become start to make a showing in polling data.

At one stage there was a suggestion of allowing a share split, ie 1 share of old "other" would give you 1 share of new other and 1 share of new candidate however there was a question about how to deal with shorted stocks.

Has any thought been put into this?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/24/2009 04:23AM by ST00.

ST00, two possibilities: a) a share split, or b) to run separate stocks that are outside the current bundle.

If one other candidate emerges as a strong contender then 'Other' will become in effect their stock. If more than one other major contender emerges then we may consider a share split. We've never done it before but I don't see a major technical issue there. Whether owners of Other stock like the idea or not is something we'd need to test. Changing a stock's definition midstream is not something we take lightly!

I couldn't myself see how running seperate stocks outside the bundle could in any way be equitable to holders of 'Other' stocks who have bought these as all encompassing for any number of strong contenders that may emerge.

However the share split has some merit apart from the existing shorted stocks cover mechanism.

Running stocks outside of the bundle would not affect those people holding "other" stocks. You would retain those stocks, and they'd still cover all candidates other than those currently running. Admin are considering running a conditional stock, ie, additional stocks that, in order to be satisfied, the "other" stock must also be satisfied.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/24/2009 02:52AM by Taurusport.

Gotcha Taurusport - thanks for that ..I'm now enlightened!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/24/2009 05:16AM by corbusian.

Is Bob Harvey really accurately priced at a 1% chance of becoming mayor? As a mayor who has been elected 6 consecutive times of a city with a population of 201,000, you would think he had quite a substantial fan base.

Granted he hasn't announced whether he is running for the top job, only for a seat.

Artist, old Bob is 67 this year! I think the new city needs someone a bit fresher & younger and less... well westie to take Auckland into the future

You realize old banks is 63 right?

Time to clean out the lot of them and have a fresh start...

How about David Kirk - isn't he looking for a new job?

Other potential candidates could be:

Laila Harre - I believe she has a new job, and I suspect she is too left-leaning to have any real chance in the current climate.
Christine Fletcher - what's her news? Has she retired from all public offices?
Dick Hubbard - although he is probably too busy making cereal and flying his workers to Samoa to re-run. Was he the worst mayor ever?
Speaking of oldies, maybe Les Mills will have another go at the ripe old age of 75? Somehow I doubt it.....
I suspect someone with the surname Tizard will also have a go.

How about a 'Bring Back Buck' campaign? {j/k}

Personally I believe (assuming there is a super city and an election) that none of the sitting mayors will win the top job given each candidate will have more people voting against them than for them (although I am still taking insurance on other candidates!). In the event a centre-right personality that was considered a 'breath of fresh air' was to declare they want to be super-mayor, then I reckon they would win by a landslide.

Just my opinion.....