Auckland Mayor 2010

Bring back Robbie.

Surely there's plenty of other rich business men who fancy a crack. Throughout the history of politics they tend to spring up quite regularly.

I just can't see people in one 'city' opting to vote for someone from another 'city'. The local incumbent got there through winning their vote last time so any 'local' candidate who wants to push a regional barrow is going to have the support of their (former) constituents.

I won't be voting for anyone who has served in another 'city'. I acknowledge I am being 100% parochial and one-eyed, but who won't be when it comes time to putting pen to paper? Who won't put their 'city' ahead of others for the sake of the greater good? Let's not forget exactly half the population is not as smart as the average person - and at the risk of sounding like I'm speaking from an ivory tower, what will motivate these people? I could be wrong but I believe it will be regional issues and local personalities. Imagine the support someone like Inga Tuigamala or Michael Jones would get in South and West Auckland if they decided to have a go!

But seriously, in the absence of someone else coming out of the woodwork, I can see the votes falling according to historical city lines/populations. So I believe we actually need a new or independent candidate to motivate voters to work together to get a clean result. 70% of voters won't want a mayor that won 30% of the vote!

Again, it's just my opinion
Andrew

Disclosure: I'm long on the big 2 candidates (Banks & Brown) at cheap prices as an insurance policy, and long on 'Other'. Banks is a useful insurance policy in the event there is no super-city and Others is a useful insurance policy if there is no election.

andrew93 Wrote:
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> I just can't see people in one 'city' opting to
> vote for someone from another 'city'. The local
> incumbent got there through winning their vote
> last time so any 'local' candidate who wants to
> push a regional barrow is going to have the
> support of their (former) constituents.

I assumed the same thing, hence my original post about the poor showing of old Harvey. I think people are underestimating the diversity of the regions. Manukau and Waitakere account ~40% of the supercity population. North Shore and Central City account for ~45%. Assuming another right leaning candidate puts their hat in the ring there will be real competition through vote splitting.

At this stage I think its safe to assume the supercity proposal is going through. The first supercity bill went through relatively easily in parliament and the transitional authority is set up. National have the power to get this through and are showing the political will. I think the only question is, will it happen in time.

Quote

"A second bill creating the boundaries and nature of the council goes to select committee for submissions and becomes law in September.

A third bill that defines the powers and functions of the Supercity is then introduced and becomes law by April 2010 in time for the super council elections the following October."

[www.nzherald.co.nz]

I thought Brown had a fair chance until he said he supported Maori seats and implied he would bring them in if elected, which I understand he would be able to do

... I think that alone will come back to bite him and totally ruin his chances - personally I would now go out of my way to see anyone else elected including my pet cat!

I dont think there will be any Maori seats Corbusian

Super City details released just now:

"The Government is expected to adopt the recommendations of the select committee as the basis to pass the Local Government(Auckland Council) Bill into law next week."

[www.nzherald.co.nz]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/04/2009 03:09AM by Artist.

Mystery candidate announcement in next few days?

Has to happen sometime! its way to juicy a job for the power hungry to be left to the 2 present candidates unopposed.

Len Brown up 23 cents ... did I miss something?

An opportunity for profit?

It's Brown's Town

Is anyone else sick of seeing Winston's ugly mug shot amongst the candidates? I need to find a way to block that photo.

TraderV Wrote:
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> Is anyone else sick of seeing Winston's ugly mug
> shot amongst the candidates? I need to find a way
> to block that photo.


I feel the same about Banks however, I find using a mental block and getting over it helps.

Mind you better than having Jenny Shipley's mug shot (just)

URM poll just released by NZ Herald puts Brown ahead of Banks by a mile.

Brown 43 points, Banks 32 points; the poll was conducted during Banks full page advertising campaign!

I also notice Banks team has done polling although they disagree amongst their own team on sample size but havent released the results which means it says the same as the Herald poll

By by Banks and Buy Buy Brown.

[www.nzherald.co.nz]

Banksie down to 8.2% in this poll! .. Though it seems a bit of an entertainment holiday poll the sample size was 3 times the URM poll.

Tindall for mayor! .. never thought of that but why not

Did Tindall just come second behind Brown in that Herald poll? That's what I took from the graphic. Might have to launch a new contract - but it will have to be outside the current bundle.

Poll commisioned by Banks himself and carried out by a polling company with National party links shows Banks & Brown level pegging. I wonder when we'll get an unbiased poll to get a clearer picture?

Funny that Banksie didn't release the last poll he carried out at the same time as the URM poll, perhaps they didn't poll the right people to give him a favourable outcome..

If Banks carried out this poll I'd expect at least a 10% bias in the result in his favour.

[www.nzherald.co.nz]

I think both polling companies are valid, the results are close and spot on it will be a very tight race. Banks stock price is high as he and/or his mates are buying in to inflate it (so take advantage of this if you want to sell down) - much like they did with Huljich Wealth Management Kiwisaver to inflate reporting of returns, yes Banks is an Executive Director of this company according to it's prospectus, if he was still an MP he would have resigned by now. Once the Security Commission fully investigates polls/stock prices will change!

Aha! Thanks Create, I have got the distinct impression the Banks price was being artificially inflated by one determined buyer, with plenty of money to throw at it. They must have thousands of this stock by now - definitely an opportunity to continue to sell Banks at a good price! and buy the alternatives cheaply..



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/26/2010 07:11PM by corbusian.

Is there supposed to be some positive feedback loop between inflated stock prices and voter intention?

Artist Wrote:
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> Is there supposed to be some positive feedback
> loop between inflated stock prices and voter
> intention?

Or so someone thinks. Time to play market maker and get some sensibility back into that price....

Some one is playing this stock hard - more money than sense or some other agenda - buying stock off him/herself to push it up - thanks for the shorting opportunity.
Money cant buy everything.

Cheers Heez

how do you buy off yourself without 2 accounts? which of course is not allowed...The Banksie price does though seem heavily driven by one buyer whatever the motivation... time will tell - theres certainly opportunity there!

If you look at the track record of ipredict stock prices and past performance it is a pretty good indicator of future outcomes. Agreed that someone is wasting large bucks on Banks and their motivation is most likely a self-fulfilling prophecy to give Banks backers a bit of comfort so they dont put someone else up to split his vote. Buy short on Banks because as soon as a third contender is announced Banks will drop. Think Brown is still a good buy at current prices. I heard him speak at a business function in the CBD the other day, he was well received by all of us blue boys!

Given the paucity of publicity about iPredict prices, I'm heavily skeptical about manipulation intended to create self-fulfilling prophecies.

I know nothing about Auckland politics so am staying out of this one (except long position on Shipley running given a rumour I'd heard and very low price at which I was able to buy),.

See Len Brown has 5,000 Facebook friends and Banks has under 2,000. Also JT in the Herald this week saying he won't stand. Looks like a 2 horse race!

Yep u can buy stock but u can't buy friends.

What's happening with Brown stock heaps traded today pushing Brown up - but last poll had Banks ahead?

Wouldn't take much notice of the last Poll as it was done by Banks and only polled ratepayers when in fact everyone gets to vote. But yes a lot traded today in Browns favour, perhaps Banks is stepping down due to Securities Commission investigation into his business practices!