Summers and Geithner

/15849655773cef225fbc69ac9114808a/the-press-office/2010/09/21/dr-lawrence-h-summers-director-national-economic-council-return-harvard-

Quote

WASHINGTON - Dr. Lawrence H. Summers, Director of the National Economic Council and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, announced his plans to return to his position as University Professor at Harvard University at the end of the year.
Dr. Summers is the chief White House advisor to the President on the development and implementation of economic policy. He also leads the President’s daily economic briefing.

/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=SUMMERS.RESIGN

Quote

Judging Criteria

The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood of Lawrence Summers surviving 2010 as US Director of the US National Economic Council.

Departure must be announced or widely understood to be permanent. This contract will not close, for example, due to sick leave, or due to an Acting Director being appointed while Mr Summers is overseas or on holiday or temporarily stood down.

This contract will close at $1 on Mr Summers' resignation, sacking, or permanent departure due to any reason.

This contract will be judged based on when Mr Summers' departure takes effect

Note: this contract will close at $1 for a departure up to and including departure on Monday 3 January 2011 US Eastern Standard Time, the first working day of the year.

Are there any announcements from The White House that Larry stood down as the Director of NEC?
Are there any announcements of resignation from Larry? Was the resignation accepted?
Can the US National Economic Council function without the Director?
Who is officially the Director of NEC now ?: /15849655773cef225fbc69ac9114808a/administration/eop/nec/director
Is Larry incapacitated or dead? (Can anyone hold the position at Harvard University and the White House at the same time?)



___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

It's possible for the position to be vacant - Obama left all kinds of executive positions vacant for rather a while. And it's possible for Summers to be at Harvard and on the NEC at the same time, especially if Harvard's happy that it's just a short stint till a replacement comes in.

Worst case is that the position is vacant 'till mid-January with no announcement of any kind. Matt would then need to email NEC and ask who the current director is, or if the position is vacant, as of end of first business day back, US time.

This from CNN State of the Union, interview with the Press Secretary:

Quote

CROWLEY: Why is it so hard to replace Larry Summers who was supposed to leave in the fall, top economic adviser to the president? Where is his replacement?

GIBBS: Well, first and foremost Larry continues to be on the job and helping the president and the economic team and will do so through the end of the year. I expected the president will make an announcement on a new NEC director probably the first week or two weeks after congress comes back into session.

I think obviously it's an important part of our economic team, and the president wants to take some time to make a good decision because as you mentioned we have had a lot on our plates the last couple weeks.

Transcript



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/02/2011 01:42AM by TraderV.

New post from Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/02/AR2011010202796.html


"...The departure of National Economic Council director Lawrence H. Summers, whose last day was Friday, has left a crucial vacancy in the president's inner policy circle as the economy remains his top domestic focus and shapes up to be the No. 1 issue of his 2012 reelection campaign. ..."

Well spotted Eclipse - that seems pretty conclusive, cant argue with it. So time for the stock to close..... its been an interesting ride over the past week, I've made a little bit but I'm sure some traders have made or lost heaps.

Indeed it was, haven't logged in for a month or so and realised I was shorting it when it jumped 60% today so someone must have noticed before me.

Still doesn't quite win me back from losing $1500 on UK and Auckland elections, but is a new year to try get that back. p.s. yes it was me moving the market to all those who won.

Eclipse Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> New post from Washington Post:
> [www.washingtonpost.com]
> le/2011/01/02/AR2011010202796.html
>
>
> "...The departure of National Economic Council
> director Lawrence H. Summers, whose last day was
> Friday, has left a crucial vacancy in the
> president's inner policy circle as the economy
> remains his top domestic focus and shapes up to be
> the No. 1 issue of his 2012 reelection campaign.
> ..."

Quote from the same article:
"Well, first and foremost Larry continues to be on the job and helping the president and the economic team and will do so through the end of the year." -- Robert Gibbs, the White House Press Secretary, 27 December 2010 (Bloomberg)

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

Well this is the start of the year, and "whose last day was Friday, has left a crucial vacancy"
Friday being the 31st December 2010 seems to make it clear that that was his last day.

However I do see your point; how about you short the stock, I buy it and we see who wins?

Eclipse Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well this is the start of the year, and "whose
> last day was Friday, has left a crucial vacancy"
> Friday being the 31st December 2010 seems to make
> it clear that that was his last day.

Not so sure:
[www.whitehouse.gov]

Quote

Lawrence H. Summers
Director of the National Economic Council and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy

Lawrence H. Summers is Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council. He was appointed by President Barack H. Obama on November 24, 2008.

[www.whitehouse.gov]
Can't find any official statement that Larry has resigned or removed from the office.

> However I do see your point; how about you short
> the stock, I buy it and we see who wins?

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

@dutching

Look back further.
Official Release

Here were his parting remarks (13th December) Widely reported to be his farewell address by a variety of news agencies.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2011 10:27AM by TraderV.

TraderV Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> @dutching
>
> Look back further.
> Official Release
>
> Here were his parting remarks (13th December)
> Widely reported to be his farewell address by a
> variety of news agencies.

The official release have been already quoted by you and me:
[www.ipredict.co.nz]
However, it is only said about Larry's plans to return to Harvard, but not about his resignation.

Since then the media spinning off: "Larry go, going, gone"; at what point of time it became official?

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

UPI

Friday was the last day in office for National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers, one of several key voices for the White House on fiscal and economic policies.

[www.upi.com]

That along with the Washington Post makes 2 major news outlets reporting that he's gone last week. That along with previous statements more than enough for me and I'm sure will satisfy Admin - He's gone


.....come on Dutching - keep shorting please



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2011 08:34PM by corbusian.

Bloomberg

"Top contenders to replace the departed Lawrence Summers are...."

[www.bloomberg.com]

Thats 3 major news outlets...

Are those media outlets reporting the announcement from the White House, Congress or US administration official?

What's about this media outlet:
[www.whitehouse.gov]
[www.whitehouse.gov]
[www.whitehouse.gov]
It is updated every day including public holidays.

P.S. and what media reports are correct:
Larry announced his resignation in September 2010
Larry gone after his "farewell speech" on 13 Dec 2010
Larry last day in the office was last Friday 31 Dec 2010
(maybe media reporters spotted him there tracking Santa from the Bloomberg terminal)?

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2011 10:25PM by dutching.

.... Short it Dutching, Short it! ... you can make heaps! Honestly

corbusian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> .... Short it Dutching, Short it! ... you can make
> heaps! Honestly

Just spotted Larry and Rob on the way covering their shorts on ipredict:



___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

corbusian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> .... Short it Dutching, Short it! ... you can make
> heaps! Honestly


Dutching has been doing a good job giving away cash - lost $256 yesterday! and only has a net worth of $225 left (-90.22% ROI)

fenian looks like the next biggest contributor and is down to $127, Mumdad still has $662 left and only lost $108 yesterday - hopefully they are keen to sell some more

Thanks guys....

3peter Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dutching has been doing a good job giving away
> cash - lost $256 yesterday! and only has a net
> worth of $225 left (-90.22% ROI)
>
> fenian looks like the next biggest contributor and
> is down to $127, Mumdad still has $662 left and
> only lost $108 yesterday - hopefully they are keen
> to sell some more


Beware all ye who counteth yon chickenths before hatchings taketh place.
Remember yon FIJI.PM, AU.USD.2010.1, MAYOR.PARKER and such.
Fool are ye who forgets the gnashing of teeth and wailing of RBA.NC.25.2NOV10.

But yes some more shorting would be appreciated

3peter Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Dutching has been doing a good job giving away
> cash - lost $256 yesterday! and only has a net
> worth of $225 left (-90.22% ROI)
>
> fenian looks like the next biggest contributor and
> is down to $127, Mumdad still has $662 left and
> only lost $108 yesterday - hopefully they are keen
> to sell some more
>
> Thanks guys....
>

Get some more:

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

And another one... New York Times

"The top job at the economic council is currently vacant; the former director, Lawrence H. Summers, resigned at the end of 2010."

[green.blogs.nytimes.com]

Thats most of the major US news agencies confirming he's gone at the end of last year now

corbusian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And another one... New York Times
>
> "The top job at the economic council is currently
> vacant; the former director, Lawrence H. Summers,
> resigned at the end of 2010."
>
> [green.blogs.nytimes.com]
> ental-economist-joins-white-house-staff/?partner=r
> ss&emc=rss
>
> Thats most of the major US news agencies
> confirming he's gone at the end of last year now

Could you point the clause in the judging criteria about US news agencies and sufficient wording to be considered as departure.

It might help to understand the exact meaning of this passage:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-03/obama-said-to-consider-william-daley-for-top-white-house-post.html

Quote

The president returns to Washington today from Hawaii where he spent the last 12 days vacationing with his family. He’s expected to make a number of staff changes and reshape his administration for the next two years. One of the pressing personnel decisions he must make is choosing a successor to Lawrence Summers as head of the National Economic Council -- an announcement that could come as early as this week.

These "staff changes" have been made or pending?

P.S. Somebody silly placed a sell of 1000 at 0.98.
That's 2% profit in 1 day, 730% per year if you buy
this case beyond any reasonable doubt as surely all these newspapers are reporting facts and only facts

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 01/04/2011 06:12PM by dutching.

/15849655773cef225fbc69ac9114808a/the-press-office/2011/01/04/remarks-president-travel-pool-aboard-air-force-one-en-route-andrews-air-

Quote

The White House

Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release
January 04, 2011
Remarks by the President to the Travel Pool aboard Air Force One en route Andrews Air Force Base

January 3, 2011
10:00 P.M. HST

THE PRESIDENT: Did you guys have a little bit of fun?



Q Anything on Larry Summers’ replacement?

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, guys. Happy New Year.

END 10:02 P.M. HST

Maybe Larry was there too taking a nap in the Air Force One lavatory,
so The President did not want to upset his awakening by the announcement?

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/04/2011 11:13PM by dutching.

Harvard Release

Can this close now? we have his resignation from a few months ago, and reports he has actually gone all over the place.

I wonder if this part of the criteria is a bit confusing:

"This contract will be judged based on when Mr Summers' departure takes effect"

I assumed it meant that the if date he says he is going to leave in his resignation is in the period it would satisfy the criteria and could close, but others seem to think it means we need to wait for the day that he actually goes before it closes. Maybe we could change the wording slightly in future contracts or some other way of clarifying the intent.

Either LS was or wasn't The NEC director on 3/1/11 - surely that's not a hard question to answer.

Arghh I would hate to be Admin on this one.. as i agree.. the wording of the contract has made it hard and they have learnt from that.. But what to do about this one?? he resigned MONTHS ago.. but when did he stop attending the office? was he going daily anyway or will he be working from his own study at home??


All yours Admin.. good luck and hope you dont get too many complaints by whatever you decide to do!..

@SSB
Comments in the CSpan video by LS indicate he doesn't actually live in DC.

The elephant in the room is the CNN video by LS himself saying his last day will be before Xmas, since then it was reported he would 'remain at his post' til 31st December at the request of POTUS.

What isn't clear to me, (and is ignored) is why the consistent use of language "at the end of the year" in the official release and media interviews by Press Secretary.
At any time alternative language refering to the New Year, or will step down when a new appointment is made - could have been used - yet was not.
Not to mention the flack Obama is receiving for not making an appointment, which would have been avoided if Larry had chosen to depart in January.

I think this one's done. Summers is out. Three sources:

LA Times:

Quote

Summers' last day as director of the National Economic Council was Friday. His deputy, Jason Furman, has taken over the job as the White House finishes a search that began when Summers announced his resignation in September.

Washington Post:

Quote

The departure of National Economic Council Director Lawrence H. Summers, whose last day was Friday, has left a crucial vacancy in the president's inner policy circle as the economy remains his top domestic focus and shapes up to be the No. 1 issue of his 2012 reelection campaign.

Reuters:

Quote

One of Obama's first orders of business in 2011 is to pick a new director of the NEC, which coordinates economic policy throughout the administration.

The post became vacant when Larry Summers resigned to return to his teaching job at Harvard University.

Oh, I'm long, if that matters. Presumably those short can come up with three sources saying he's still at his desk?

Ok.........I will play devil's advocate.

I don't understand the rush. Do we have confirmation from the White House the position is vacant? I don't believe we do at the moment. Plus we all know the media are not always right. First we had he was definitely leaving, then there was an official/unofficial extra two weeks and now I'm reading to the end of the year, as well as through the end of the year. All of this from the media. What a mess. So I ask again: why rush?

Let's assume for the moment that POTUS appoints a new person 17 Jan 2011 and there is a press release confirming that is Larry's last official day. The terms of the contract have not been met to pay $1. What happens next if the contract has already paid out?

Furthermore, this contract doesn't state the need for 3 news media reports so the number of media outlets reporting something is irrelevant. I would only accept a statement from the White House, or someone with the authority. If that date is retrospectively given as Friday 31 December 2010 then so be it.

Right now I do have something from someone in a position of authority and that is the White House. Today's date is January 5th and their website states Larry Summers is the director of the NEC. Source: [www.whitehouse.gov]

So to complete the role of devil's advocate, can anyone who has a long position provide a link from the White House that Larry's last day was on or before January 3rd 2011?

Patience my dear Watson, patience.

Devil's advocately yours.....