Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch
Posted by admin
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 28, 2010 12:05PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 632 |
Quote
E Crampton
The only sane vote is for Michael Hansen.
I'd double down on Alcoa (NYSE:AA) if this guy gets anywhere near the echelons of power.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 28, 2010 05:45PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 463 |
Well, if there were any chance of his winning, I'd change my recommendation of course.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 01:58AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
Parker miles ahead in latest poll! Go Crazy!
Apparently when Parker polls about 50-50 with Anderton it's cause enough to go crazy on Ipredict and buy 130 odd Parker stocks at $.89
Did I say apparently? I mean definately! buy buy buy!
Apparently when Parker polls about 50-50 with Anderton it's cause enough to go crazy on Ipredict and buy 130 odd Parker stocks at $.89
Did I say apparently? I mean definately! buy buy buy!
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 02:02AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
Ok I just sold 100 Parker stocks for $0.95.
Now I feel like the doofus. Obviously someone knows something I don't, and I hate it when that happens
Now I feel like the doofus. Obviously someone knows something I don't, and I hate it when that happens
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 02:05AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 447 |
Do they count as the votes come in, or start counting after the close-off date?
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 02:18AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
Yeah that's the obvious question. But on the other hand, would that matter? if the poll today of some 350 people is even remotely accurate it wouldn't matter if you knew what, say, 30% or 50% of the votes are because it could still go either way.
Buying stock at .95 should mean you know the outcome without doubt. I'm just pissed I sent my votes (ahem, I mean my vote and that of my apolitical wife) in yesterday. Anyway, where was I... oh yes.
VOTE ANDERTON! WE'RE LUCKY HE'S EVEN WILLING TO BE OUR MAYOR! HE'S DONATING THE LAST YEARS OF HIS LIFE! HE'S FANTASTIC AND DOESN'T WANT TO PUT FLUORIDE IN THE WATER! YOUR RATES WILL BE THE LOWEST EVER! HE SOUNDS LIKE A COMMIE BUT HE MIGHT NOT BE!
Buying stock at .95 should mean you know the outcome without doubt. I'm just pissed I sent my votes (ahem, I mean my vote and that of my apolitical wife) in yesterday. Anyway, where was I... oh yes.
VOTE ANDERTON! WE'RE LUCKY HE'S EVEN WILLING TO BE OUR MAYOR! HE'S DONATING THE LAST YEARS OF HIS LIFE! HE'S FANTASTIC AND DOESN'T WANT TO PUT FLUORIDE IN THE WATER! YOUR RATES WILL BE THE LOWEST EVER! HE SOUNDS LIKE A COMMIE BUT HE MIGHT NOT BE!
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 02:25AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 463 |
They report votes received by area; that's the most I've seen. Would be surprised if they were counting as they went.
$0.90 would be an overshoot if there were a single election date rather than "mail in over period of time". Not sure with the mail in.
$0.90 would be an overshoot if there were a single election date rather than "mail in over period of time". Not sure with the mail in.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 02:46AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
It's 3.45pm and over 6,500 anderton/bob stocks have been traded. Great stuff.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 03:21AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 207 |
"The survey was done online and questioned only a small sample of 361 Christchurch residents so had a relatively high margin of error of 5.2 per cent."
361? That's like 20% of iPredict traders let alone Chch voters. It's online, so hardly random - or some would say includes only "randoms". The 190 Parker backers could probably be made up entirely by Facebook mates having an afternoon laugh. And when was it conducted? During/close to the honeymoon fortnight after the quake... or after two weeks with an infant in a portaloo?
I know how much credence I'd give it - but don't let any Bobbists out there be put off putting your wallets on the line if you feel inclined.
361? That's like 20% of iPredict traders let alone Chch voters. It's online, so hardly random - or some would say includes only "randoms". The 190 Parker backers could probably be made up entirely by Facebook mates having an afternoon laugh. And when was it conducted? During/close to the honeymoon fortnight after the quake... or after two weeks with an infant in a portaloo?
I know how much credence I'd give it - but don't let any Bobbists out there be put off putting your wallets on the line if you feel inclined.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 05:51AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
hey now ManontheCliff, this poll looks easily 300% better than the Christchurch Star poll of 100. But yes... would be nice to know when it was taken. Your "20% of iPredict traders" comment got me thinking though. Imagine if there was a way to poll iPredict users! because of course you might vote bob but be long Jim because you think he'll win. I suppose most of us would then vote on a poll here not based on who we want to win but who we want others to think will win or knowing others here would know this we might vote on who we want others to think we want them to think we want others to think will win. I'm assuming we're all slimy, sneaky bastards. 
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 06:56AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 207 |
Well, I've always believed it's who you ask that matters more than how many you ask...
but yes, I've gained the impression that some traders would happily invest their funds based on polls of people who have read polls of people who have read other polls of the likely preferences of people nobody knows and nobody is polling.
I don't know whether they're the same people you assume are slimy, sneaky and of dubious parentage.
Are the two necessarily linked?
but yes, I've gained the impression that some traders would happily invest their funds based on polls of people who have read polls of people who have read other polls of the likely preferences of people nobody knows and nobody is polling.
I don't know whether they're the same people you assume are slimy, sneaky and of dubious parentage.
Are the two necessarily linked?
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 09:30AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
9000+ Parker & Anderton stocks traded so far today. If someone has inside knowledge they're certainly making good use of it.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 29, 2010 09:47PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 275 |
From memory last time, the mayoral victors in areas with FPP were announced pretty soon after the 12 noon closing time on the Saturday - it suggested to me they count as they go. In contrast, areas with STV such as Wellington City took forever (ie like 10pm) to announce the result because it's exponentially more complicated to count.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 30, 2010 08:38AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 332 |
9000+ Parker & Anderton stocks traded so far today. If someone has inside knowledge they're certainly making good use of it.
That's what happens when you get a poll result
That's what happens when you get a poll result
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 30, 2010 07:46PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
Sure, but does anyone buy thousands of stock at 90% after a poll of 55%?
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 30, 2010 10:02PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 651 |
Fender Wrote:
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> Sure, but does anyone buy thousands of stock at
> 90% after a poll of 55%?
>
They might (it wasn't me by the way as personally, I wouldn't).
Are you comparing the 90% against the 55% and saying that they are buying at 35% over the odds, and hence a purchase of faith rather than something more rational?
Alan.
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> Sure, but does anyone buy thousands of stock at
> 90% after a poll of 55%?
>
They might (it wasn't me by the way as personally, I wouldn't).
Are you comparing the 90% against the 55% and saying that they are buying at 35% over the odds, and hence a purchase of faith rather than something more rational?
Alan.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 30, 2010 11:28PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
We-eel... no. I'm saying someone buying at 90 (or 95% for 300 stocks or so) would or perhaps should be purchasing on the rational that they know something we don't. I was trying to sound out my assumption that no-one would buy at 35 or 40% over the odds, particularly when those odds were based on a weak poll.
Jim Anderton for instance said he was surprised he was polling so close when he saw that poll, and I'm sure plenty would have agreed. So I'm just trying to get an idea on whether iPredict giving Anderton odds of 10-15% is a measure of lots of ppl or the measure of just one or two who have inside info or a case of the crazies.
Jim Anderton for instance said he was surprised he was polling so close when he saw that poll, and I'm sure plenty would have agreed. So I'm just trying to get an idea on whether iPredict giving Anderton odds of 10-15% is a measure of lots of ppl or the measure of just one or two who have inside info or a case of the crazies.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch September 30, 2010 11:44PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 275 |
Of course a poll of 55% vs 41% support doesn't translate to a 55% probability that Parker will win and a 41% chance that Anderton will win - I'd argue that (even with a margin of error of +/- 5.2%) that the spread should be wider in terms of likelihood of winning... maybe 70/30 or 75/25? 90% or 95% though does seem over the top.
I'm staying out of this one. I was just glad to be able to unload my stocks at a small profit in the days after the quake when it looked like Anderton was romping home and I was getting hammered before that.
I'm staying out of this one. I was just glad to be able to unload my stocks at a small profit in the days after the quake when it looked like Anderton was romping home and I was getting hammered before that.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 12:22AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 207 |
Fender Wrote:
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> We-eel... no. I'm saying someone buying at 90 (or
> 95% for 300 stocks or so) would or perhaps should
> be purchasing on the rational that they know
> something we don't.
The notion of someone "knowing something we don't know" in regard to a poll that still has a week to run sounds like a matter for the electoral commission, or else something to discount. It's not like a Board of Directors has sat around and decided they're going to appoint a new chief exec, or float new shares.
But surely, it could be nothing less rational than someone figuring that if a candidate is ahead on 55% at this stage then their victory is near enough to a sure thing to be worth buying into - i.e. that a lead of that size at this point equates to a 95% certainty. I think there are a lot of people who aren't mathematicians or accountants. Witness the number who bet on horse races. If it's simply "will Bob win?" or "will Jim win?", which is the rational choice, based on a poll putting Bob ahead a week out?
That said, I haven't recently bought 300 Bobs.
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> We-eel... no. I'm saying someone buying at 90 (or
> 95% for 300 stocks or so) would or perhaps should
> be purchasing on the rational that they know
> something we don't.
The notion of someone "knowing something we don't know" in regard to a poll that still has a week to run sounds like a matter for the electoral commission, or else something to discount. It's not like a Board of Directors has sat around and decided they're going to appoint a new chief exec, or float new shares.
But surely, it could be nothing less rational than someone figuring that if a candidate is ahead on 55% at this stage then their victory is near enough to a sure thing to be worth buying into - i.e. that a lead of that size at this point equates to a 95% certainty. I think there are a lot of people who aren't mathematicians or accountants. Witness the number who bet on horse races. If it's simply "will Bob win?" or "will Jim win?", which is the rational choice, based on a poll putting Bob ahead a week out?
That said, I haven't recently bought 300 Bobs.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 01:30AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 463 |
The Press is supposed to come out with a poll tomorrow. Anybody there could be trading too for all we know. Or anybody who's doing door to door work for either campaign.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 02:04AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 26 |
I can't imagine the scenario where a real journo would play on ipredict form their professional inside knowledge.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 02:21AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 13 |
Vici Wrote:
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> I can't imagine the scenario where a real journo
> would play on ipredict form their professional
> inside knowledge.
If they have inside knowledge why shouldn't they make the most of it?
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> I can't imagine the scenario where a real journo
> would play on ipredict form their professional
> inside knowledge.
If they have inside knowledge why shouldn't they make the most of it?
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 03:49AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 463 |
I would were I a journo.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/01/2010 03:49AM by ECrampton.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/01/2010 03:49AM by ECrampton.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 06:20AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 26 |
I'll ask one of them I know tonight. I just think it would put your relationships with sources at risk for what is fairly small beer returns.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 07:29AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
mmm... beer returns.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 04:28PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 463 |
CHC Press poll results out.
Quote
The survey of 400 voters, conducted between September 24 and 29, showed that of those who had voted or planned to vote, Parker had 36 per cent support to Jim Anderton's 20 per cent.
Another 28 per cent had not decided, 16 per cent would not disclose and 1 per cent opted for Blair Anderson.
The poll results, with a margin of error of 5.3 per cent, echoed the trend of an online poll this week that showed Parker ahead by 55 per cent to Anderton's 41 per cent.
A Press poll in August had Anderton ahead by 50 per cent to Parker's 31 per cent of those who had made a choice.
The latest poll also looked at the impact of the September 4 earthquake on voter behaviour, with Parker widely expected to have benefited from his handling of issues in the aftermath.
However, the poll found 74 per cent had not changed their vote as a result of the quake. Of the 13 per cent who had changed their mind, 80 per cent now supported Parker.
...
Parker held the the lead in three city wards, but not in Hagley-Ferrymead, Shirley-Papanui and Banks Peninsula.
He and Anderton were tied for support in the Riccarton-Wigram ward, which includes part of Anderton's Wigram parliamentary electorate.
The results showed Parker was comfortably leading across all voter age groups.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 09:10PM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 207 |
Interesting that Parker doesn't retain support in his old Banks Peninsula area which he took into amalgamation.
But otherwise it could be anybody's. It would be hard to find grounds for assuming the "undecided" & "will not disclose" groups will merely follow the pattern of the other voters - and they're 44% of the vote.
But otherwise it could be anybody's. It would be hard to find grounds for assuming the "undecided" & "will not disclose" groups will merely follow the pattern of the other voters - and they're 44% of the vote.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 09:55PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 463 |
ManontheCliff: I have 200 Anderton shares that I'll give you then for the low low price of $0.15. Please run up the book to take them from me.
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 01, 2010 10:04PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 463 |
Look at the numbers, ManontheCliff. Parker needs 14 points of the 44 (don't know / won't disclose) to make a majority; Anderton needs 30 of the 44.
Is it likely that Anderton has 69% support among those who are undecided or who won't disclose?
I can buy that people might be more embarrassed to reveal support for Anderton, especially with all the rah-rah-rah for Parker (and as folks like me who'd have gone Anderton over Parker would only do so while holding nose at minimum).
I just don't buy that the undecideds / won't reveal break more than 2-1 in favour of Anderton. But that's what needs to happen absent Parker supporters flipping back to Anderton. Can happen: Parker can still screw this all up. He showed massive capacity for screwing things up pre quake. But he seems to have smartened up now that screwing up means he'd lose (whereas before it just meant he'd lose by more).
Is it likely that Anderton has 69% support among those who are undecided or who won't disclose?
I can buy that people might be more embarrassed to reveal support for Anderton, especially with all the rah-rah-rah for Parker (and as folks like me who'd have gone Anderton over Parker would only do so while holding nose at minimum).
I just don't buy that the undecideds / won't reveal break more than 2-1 in favour of Anderton. But that's what needs to happen absent Parker supporters flipping back to Anderton. Can happen: Parker can still screw this all up. He showed massive capacity for screwing things up pre quake. But he seems to have smartened up now that screwing up means he'd lose (whereas before it just meant he'd lose by more).
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Re: Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch October 02, 2010 01:19AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 207 |
ECrampton Wrote:
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> ManontheCliff: I have 200 Anderton shares that
> I'll give you then for the low low price of $0.15.
> Please run up the book to take them from me.
Hmmm, despite repeated encouragement to do otherwise, I take the term "Forum" as an invitation to air and discuss ideas, as opposed to a platform to broadcast or trumpet my trading strategies. So thanks for the offer but I'll do the buying and selling quietly on the trading pages. Not everybody's approach, I know, but it works for me.
I do wonder why, if you are a substantial Jimbo holder, you're so keen to talk down the prospects for Jim stocks? Not being one of those sly characters somebody referred to earlier in the week, I hope ? ;-)
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> ManontheCliff: I have 200 Anderton shares that
> I'll give you then for the low low price of $0.15.
> Please run up the book to take them from me.
Hmmm, despite repeated encouragement to do otherwise, I take the term "Forum" as an invitation to air and discuss ideas, as opposed to a platform to broadcast or trumpet my trading strategies. So thanks for the offer but I'll do the buying and selling quietly on the trading pages. Not everybody's approach, I know, but it works for me.
I do wonder why, if you are a substantial Jimbo holder, you're so keen to talk down the prospects for Jim stocks? Not being one of those sly characters somebody referred to earlier in the week, I hope ? ;-)
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