Bob Parker to be re-elected mayor of Christchurch

[www.ipredict.co.nz]

If there was a prize for the most mental trading chart on iPredict, Parker would win by a country mile. iTeam maybe needs to take a look at this one.

Also fixing the old links in the forum would be good. Simple search & replace in the database.

Link above no go any more, link below is the one...
[www.ipredict.co.nz]

That is pretty weird, but I don't think it is an error. Here's a larger version of the chart on the Easy API Interface.

I think the craziness comes from the difference between the buy (0.42) and sell prices (0.68). In the past week or so, there have been trades for as low as 0.0004 and 0.0008, hence the crazy low dips.

I guess the market maker is running out of funds to run properly on this stock.

{Alan puts his hand up for buying at $0.0004}

I'd love to see a bundle which includes Bob Parker and Jim Anderton. I'm looking forward to short selling Jim Anderton down very hard.

Looks like the Parker market maker is working again. Quite interesting comparing PARKER win to the ANDERTON resign prices though.

As was mentioned in the anderton thread, this is almost a bundle, if Parker loses, Anderton almost certainly has won and will announce his resignation Parker=0 Anderton=1, if Anderton doesn't announce his resignation then Parker has almost certainly won Parker=1 Anderton=0, but the stock prices are way off that reasoning with both prices well over 50c, Anderton is over 70c.

I reckon there is a fairly significant chance that, if Anderton loses, at age 72, he thanks his supporters and announces that the coming year in parliament will be his last. After all, he is actively looking for a new job (the mayoralty), so that could indicate that he is over life in parliament.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/12/2010 07:26PM by Scott.

Quote

As was mentioned in the anderton thread, this is almost a bundle, if Parker loses, Anderton almost certainly has won and will announce his resignation Parker=0 Anderton=1

He's explicitly said he will not stand in 2011 if he wins, but that is enough to meet the terms of the contract, and so the maths works out the same.

The tricky bit is the "almost". Anderton could announce his resignation anyway even if he loses. He could resign to fight the campaign. Or he could drop dead or resign for health reasons. But I don't think these are enough to increase the value of the stock by 100%.

Currently MAYOR.PARKER + MP.ANDERTON.2010 = $1.35. Even if you think there's some chance of those almosts coming true, there's still money to be made. They can't both win, after all.

Hi mrh,

I have been looking at this too, thinking there is an opportunity here.

By my way of thinking, the one that seems to be out of kilter is MP.Anderton.2010?

It looks like that is way too high at 77c (or thereabouts), if you compare with Mayor.Parker.

Looks to me like it makes sense to short MP.Anderton.2010 at 77c, and short Mayor.Parker but somewhat less for now?


How far? Obviously that depends on what you think will actually happen, but it seems to me that the chances of Parker winning AND Anderton not standing is more like about 10% overall across both, or about 20% if I take a 50/50 position on Parker winning (or make that a given). If Parker wins, then Anderton clearly didn't, so it seems likely he will stand again as an MP. The 'unknown' for me is what are the chances that he doesn't get Mayor of Chch AND still stands down (or otherwise doesn't run) as MP?

Similarly, if we look at Parker winning and Anderton standing then, again, if I assume Parker wins, then I think there is at least an 80% chance of Anderton standing again (or if I assume 50/50 on Parker, then a combined probability of 40%)

All of that would seem to say that MP.Anderton.2010 shoud be trading at between 16c and 21c.

Perhaps I am way off with my conditional probabilities though?

What are your thoughts?

Let's keep it simple, and talk about:

Given that Parker wins the Chch mayoralty (and Anderton loses), then:

What is the probability that Anderton will not stand for MP?


Or alternatively, if MP.Anderton.2010 is assumed correct at about 77c, then Mayor.Parker should be about 13c, but this would seem to introduce other inconsistencies, so I am picking mainly on MP.Anderton.2010 being over-priced, and going mainly short there, but somewhat short on Mayor.Parker too.


Of course, I might have all the maths wrong too!

Alan.

The chance of Anderton not standing as MP can not be less than the chance of Anderton winning as Mayor, it is some undetermined amount more, but it can not be less as he said if he wins then he will not be standing as I understand.

So, in you saying that the Anderton not standing stock should be sold down to 16 to 21c, you are saying that the chance of Anderton winning mayor is less than this.

We can assume this is a two horse race, realistically, it WILL be one of these two. Even at the most generous your numbers give Anderton 21% chance of winning and Parker 79% chance of winning.

I, a christchurch (wigram) voter, who is well aware that there is plenty of dislike for Parker around, and plenty of old biddies who think Anderton is just lovely, personally would put it MUCH closer to 50/50.

Which means Anderton announcing he won't stand should be, in my opinion, OVER 50% by some amount (I'd put it about 60). And Parker winning somewhere about 50%.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/14/2010 02:06AM by sleemanj.

MAYOR.ANDERTON + MAYOR.PARKER = $1.22

They can't both win.

Didn't last long.

Now best bids are:

Mayor.Anderton = 0.5988
Mayor.Parker = 0.3854

Combined = 0.9843

Therefore, implied

Mayor.Other = 0.0158


Alan.

Just out of interest, and if you don't mind saying, why did you post it here, rather than shorting them both down?

Alan.

Lack of capital to do the whole job.

mrh Wrote:
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> Lack of capital to do the whole job.
>

Has there been some sort of poll released or something? Parker seems to be being sold off quite a bit in favour of Anderton.

Its crazy, iam staying with Parker. I have seen no poll in local media.

I'm pretty sure the shift was from just one trader as it all happened very quickly last night. It was done pretty clinically - he/she simultaneously pushed Anderton up 10c, Parker down 10c, and placed sizable orders at the new prices. It's unusual to witness a 10c shift in price with no arbitrage opportunities.

It might just be reaction to Burke's confirmation he is not standing for Mayor.

Why am I buying Parker when I should be hedging against an Anderton win? My property taxes go up what, a third or so, if Anderton wins? And half the bars get shut down?

Will this scandalous news about the misuse of credit cards have an effect on this mayoral election in Christchurch? What is your opinion?:

"Progressive leader Jim Anderton racked up a $22,000 bill on his ministerial credit card during a month-long trip to Europe in 2003.

He also spent $324 on a gift from Kirkcaldie & Stains before leaving on the trip.

The cash splash while in Europe from April 9 to May 3 included $3500 at Hotel Hilton in Frankfurt, $3400 at Hotel Conrad in Dublin, $2600 at the Palace Hotel in Helsinki and $1000 at a restaurant in Vienna. His wife and private secretary went with him on the trip.

At the Frankfurt hotel he spent about $2100 on "room charges''. No details are provided in the documents. He was a regular user of room service, mini bar (mineral water and beer) and in-room movies.

He spent $202 at a clothing store in Frankfurt, which he later reimbursed.

In July 2003, he used his credit card to pay for a $50 a round of golf at Millbrook Resort during a Local Government conference in Queenstown. He later repaid the $50. "

[www.stuff.co.nz]

Price on Anderton winning CHC went up, not down. Guess that covers it.

Will Anderton HOLD his support in the NEXT poll?

'UMR poll today showed Anderton leading Parker by 61 per cent to 30 per cent in a head-to-head contest. It showed 63 per cent of Christchurch City residents had a positive opinion of Anderton, while 21 per cent viewed him negatively.

That compared with 35 per cent having a favourable opinion of Parker, while 49 per cent had a negative opinion.

The results were based on an online survey of 350 Christchurch City residents, conducted by UMR Research. The survey was in the field from May 27 to June 7 - before revelations about spending by ministers including Anderton hit the headlines.

The margin of error was 5.2 per cent.'
[www.stuff.co.nz]

Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker has claimed that his main rival, Jim Anderton, wants to take decisions over whether fluoride should or should not be added to the city's water supplies, out of the hands of ratepayers and councillors.

and his stock is up another cent. I don't get it.

@admin

Are there any plans to make the Christchurch Mayor stocks a bundle? All it needs is an OTHER, or perhaps a GORDON and an OTHER.

Oh, and maybe WAKEMAN too. Although I'm pretty sure an OTHER would suffice!

Gidday - yes we can bundle. Nominations close on 20 August IIRC so we can bundle now or later - what's the preference traders?

admin Wrote:
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> Gidday - yes we can bundle. Nominations close on
> 20 August IIRC so we can bundle now or later -
> what's the preference traders?
>

I am not from Chch so I can only go from what I read on the net, but it looks to me that if you add Wakeman (keep DefaultSwap happy ) plus the OTHER, then anyone else would be covered anyway, and they'd seem like a very low probability at this point.

Do it now.

Alan.

GORDON is no longer needed. All we need is an OTHER I think.

I'm with Alan re bundling this sooner rather than later.