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NZ government to sign TPPA before end of 2016 - 1 year ago

We already have a stock for "before end of 2015". In the last few days we have had significant coverage in the media about it. National and Key are so far pressing ahead, but if there is significant public backlash, will they pull out?

Re: Trans-pacific Cable - 1 year ago

How is admin going to judge whether it is 'fully laid', without the requirement for it to be operational?

Re: Trans-pacific Cable - 1 year ago

Re: Next Labour Party deputy leader - 1 year ago

Just threw Parker in since he was the previous deputy, and also he ran for the leadership in the last race (as did Mahuta).

Will Peter Dunne stand as a candidate (electoral, or list) in the next general election? - 1 year ago

He's getting a bit long in the tooth - time to retire? UF isn't really a party of any note any more, he might decide it's time to pack it in. Especially if it looks like his chances of being Minister after the next election are slim.

Next Labour Party deputy leader - 1 year ago

Surprised there isn't a stock for this. Anette King was appointed by Andrew Little as the deputy leader for 1 year, on the basis that there were many potentials for the DL position and it would have been divisive and unhelpful to choose someone after he'd just won the leadership, and he wanted to see who could prove themselves up to the task. So, likely possibles: Shearer, Cunliffe, King, Nas

Re: Road Cops repeats to have better ratings than Campbell Live - 1 year ago

iPredict has a special dispensation from the government to operate, as long as they don't have stocks on "entertainment" categories, to protect the TAB (sports betting) and any potential future endeavour the TAB or other government agency might undertake (eg betting on masterchef outcomes or something). This stock strays to far into the realm of entertainment.

Re: Anne Tolley to be next Speaker of Parliament - 1 year ago

Thought it would be Brownlee.

Re: Will Reactionless Drives be proven to work? - 1 year ago

There's a huge amount of water to go under the bridge before anything comes from these. I'd rather see a more easily definable 'moonshot' technology contract, like net-positive sustained nuclear Fusion by 2020.

Re: Government Support of the Sky City Convention Center - 2 years ago

Judgement criteria could be whether the 2015 budget includes money put aside for the convention centre (regardless of year for when it is assigned) or not. Since that's when the rubber actually meets the road.

Re: Yes/no vote in NZ flag referendum - 2 years ago

Just wait for the referendum date to be announced. No need to jump the gun now. Once the referendum to choose the alternate design has been announced, we can have contracts for which one will win; similar to the Wellywood contracts we had.

Re: Pay the Searcher Advertising - 2 years ago

I'd never even heard of the concept until I saw these stocks. I assume that they've been raised on behalf of someone else - either an industry player that wants to conduct some research (or possibly generate opinions in the first place - maybe SLI Systems? hard to see anyone else that would care about the opinions of a tiny NZ prediction market), or it's a university research project in some w

Re: NZ dollar to reach parity with Australian dollar in a specific month - 2 years ago

Bundled with an option for NZ $ to not reach parity during 2015.

Re: Labour deputy leader - 2 years ago

Simply "Who is Labours next deputy" is sufficient. Trying to put a time frame on it is too annoying - what if they don't announce the new person until the 12th of Jan, for example?

Re: Sony hack? Did North Korea really do it? - 2 years ago

Since the US government has made an official statement that names North Korea as the perpetrators, a follow up statement by the US government that says something different would be pretty definitive. But the chances of that happening seem extremely slim, because it would be embarrassing to them to admit the mistake, and it appears they have taken down the North Korean internet on two occasions

By-election to be held in 2015, 2016, 2017 - 2 years ago

3 new stocks: A by-election to be held in any NZ electorate in [2015, 2016 or 2017], during the term of the 51st government (ie, contracts expire at dissolution of Parliament, which could occur prior to 2017).

Re: LABDEP.KING.14 - 2 years ago

Strictly speaking, she isn't actually deputy leader yet. The vote happens tomorrow. She could, for example, get hit by a bus tonight.

Re: Bad management - 2 years ago

Yeah, was pretty pathetic.

Re: What are you doing admin? - 2 years ago

Yeah, disappointed that the post about the trading suspension says they'll be suspended at 11:59pm, and they're suspended already.

Re: DOTCOM.NAME.KEY - 2 years ago

KDC hasn't even attempted to prove the veracity, he's just limply said "it is what it is" and that he believes it is proof. He hasn't even said where the email came from and how it came to be in his possession - there's no identified chain of custody, nor other supplementary emails from the same conversation chain or anything like that. Apparently he's still using it as part of his e

Re: DOTCOM.NAME.KEY - 2 years ago

Premature. Admin made it quite clear that the "reasonable person" test is already met. What has not been met is proof of veracity of the email that has been produced. QuoteTerms of contract The evidence, and proof of its veracity, must be published or broadcast in a new bulletin or section A of at least three of TVNZ, TV3, RNZ, NewstalkZB, RadioLIVE, New Zealand Herald and Dominion-

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

Well that was an anticlimax

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

Ok, that makes sense.

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

admin do you have any comment on the specific clause about the evidence clearly having to identify John Key knowing the name Kim Dotcom, not just Kim Schmitz? Are you satisfied that the email evidence we have clearly shows Key must have known the name Kim Dotcom? Or, is this clause simply being ignored, in the sense that the 'reasonable person' clause has prominence due to the nature and co

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

QuoteKey responded today saying: "I do not believe that to be correct, I have no recollection of the conversation that's alluded to in that email. "There are no records there and the meetings that I had were with other people around me, so in the end, we're going to get to the bottom of it but we don't have any record of it. "In all the meetings that I had with Mr Tsujihara w

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

So there appear to be 3 hurdles to clear: 1. Veracity: "The evidence, and proof of its veracity" 2. Reasonable person test: "a reasonable person would believe proves, on the balance of probabilities, that Mr Key knew of Kim Dotcom's name before 19 January 2012." 3. Proof of "Kim Dotcom" and not "Kim Schmitz": "The contract will NOT pay $1 if evidenc

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

Yes, would be nice to have admin chime in on this. Seems to me it doesn't meet the criteria to close at $1, because the email is second-hand information, so we cannot know if John Key was told the name Kim Schmitz, Kim Dotcom, or both. But because we cannot know this, and the email "does not clearly provide evidence that Mr Key knew of the name Kim Dotcom", I don't think it constitut

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

The rumour is that the evidence is a recording of a conversation between Key and Warner Brothers executives where WB tell Key to give KDC residency so they can investigate and extradite him, and then go on to talk about changing the law so as to allow the hobbit production.

Re: John Key statements on knowledge of Kim Dotcom to be proven wrong - 2 years ago

How is this contract going to be judged if Kim Dotcom produces evidence that John Key knew about him prior to the raid, if John Key then produces evidence that "shows" that he didn't, eg notes from when he was first briefed on the raid and he asks if KDC is Korean, with the argument being this 'proves' he didn't know KDC was or he wouldn't have asked the question? Given Key's notorio

Re: 2014 Election Vote Share: Binary Stocks - 2 years ago

Winston is saying they'll get over 10 on the day.