US Unemployment Revision.

Is anyone else not surprised and slightly disturbed by the backward revision of an extra 824,000 job losses over the last 12 months?

Was it not obvious that unemployment is being under reported throughout this crisis due to the births/death modelling

“It’s a huge number, much more than usual,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. The government’s models “tend to assume dying firms get replaced, but that didn’t happen.”

[blogs.wsj.com]

This graph from calculated risk is quite striking

It's interesting that, prior to the current recession, 2001 took approx 46 months start to finish, 1990 took approx 30 months and 1981 took approx 27 months. All others were 2 years or less. So, where does this one fit in the chart when finished. Will it exit in a hurry perhaps, less than 12 months, a steady exit of 12 to 18 months or are we looking at something more like 18 months or even 2 years plus? I know what I believe and that's good, because it means, what with my dismal record of late, that we exit in a hurry. Hooray!

My guess is that we are looking at something between 40 and 50 months from start to finish, so that is a recovery over the next 2 years.