OCR contracts

Yeah 2.9% was free money.

With insider trading, I was wondering whether anyone working at the Reserve Bank could have the information a few hours before the announcement, as a POTENTIAL for future insider trading, rather than evidence for it actually happening.

I'm thinking that the large jump was from people who didn't read about the rounding properly, and so I'm all for continuing stocks that round to 1 d.p. - the more the confusion, the more I profit!

I see, there will definitely be people out there with potential knowledge - but I wonder if they have strict employment contracts when it comes to sharing the information they have for financial gain, as compared to the political contracts I havent seen much/any evidence of RBNZ insiders.

I'm just gutted I didnt back myself when the 2.9% contract went upto 35c, had a quick panic and had to recheck the definition and figures and was down around 20 once I got back into selling!

My (second-hand) understanding is that the RB does have a policy preventing people from using any information they may have from profiting. I would have expected this to have been in existance with regard to financial markets anyway, but to have been extended to include iPredict once it appeared on the scene.

I also enjoyed the person(s) who hadn't read the long description properly and contributed to my net gain of $120 for the day However, in the long run, I don't think that profiting off people's confusion is that great as it just annoys people and discourages them from continuing to participate in the market.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/02/2011 06:06AM by Economist.

Agree profits from confusion aren't great, in this case at least I think it was pretty clear but someone got a little over excited who decided to get involved last minute without having a good look beforehand!

Surprised the NC stock for March is so low - You'd think they would be focused on canterbury initiatives rather then nationwide accellerants, effectively dropping 50 points helps Auckland and Wellington as much as Christchurch and that seems silly to me!

youareapirate Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Surprised the NC stock for March is so low - You'd
> think they would be focused on canterbury
> initiatives rather then nationwide accellerants,
> effectively dropping 50 points helps Auckland and
> Wellington as much as Christchurch and that seems
> silly to me!

Totally. Though I shorted them at 95 cents so what would I know.

I guess its just widely predicted by economists - but the direct effects of dropping the OCR will penalise canterbury comparitively since its harder to borrow money and build new structures that aren't insurance jobs then the rest of the country, not to mention the weaker dollar it will bring which isnt a good match with the current petrol price for growth



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/05/2011 12:54PM by youareapirate.

low dollar good for exports though, get the farmers spending and all that....

need to strike a good balance with that dollar rate. I wonder where Bollard would like it to be as presumably higher petrol prices increases inflation for the wrong reasons. Interesting piece from the Greens about impact on economy from higher oil prices.

"A study by Green Party transport spokesman Gareth Hughes says every increase of $US1 in the price of a barrel of oil wipes out $40m to $60m of New Zealand's annual gross domestic product, and destroys between $22m and $33m in household spending. That equated to a loss of more than $1 billion to GDP, and around a $600m reduction in consumer discretionary spending"

I think it's unfortunate the outlook for oil is so unstable at a time when a low dollar would be good.

OCR poser for RBNZ

What's up with the new OCR July stocks?

When I tried to sell OCR.28JUL11.U25 I got an error.

Just on the discussion about potential RBNZ insider trading, which I hadn't seen unil now:

The RBNZ doesn't calculate the daily 90-day rate itself. At 11:10am it takes a snapshot from the Reuters data feeds for a whole bunch of data, including the FX rates and bank bill rates. (Why 11:10? Because it gives markets time to settle down after any official data releases, which are at 10:45.) Any person sitting in an NZ dealing room (and I know that there are lots of them on iPredict) would have that same information as at 11:10am.

So yeah, I'd say that any money made or lost that day was due to someone not reading the fine print of the contract. It happens sometimes - caveat emptor/vendor (depending on which way around you are).

90 Day BBR stocks for June can close - 2.68 for 1 June.

[www.rbnz.govt.nz]

Closed now

OCR 8 March 2012 contracts just launched.

[www.nbr.co.nz]

New OCR contracts launched 14 June 2012.