OCR contracts
Posted by admin
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Re: OCR Increase stocks August 30, 2010 07:03AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 61 |
Seems like the ipredict markets on side with BNZ at the moment!
[www.stuff.co.nz]
[www.stuff.co.nz]
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 12:50AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 175 |
Better than even chance Canada will raise interest rates...
[www.businessweek.com]
[www.businessweek.com]
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 09:30AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 52 |
What Canada do on Thursday and the statement from the rba on Tuesday will be very telling on how much bearishness rubbed off on the central bankers from growth countries at the conference last week with the fed.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 10:13AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 399 |
I'm also picking the earthquake repairs and the SCF payout will provide quite a boost to the SI economy in the coming months. As to how this impacts the OCR remains to be seen.....
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 09:00PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 103 |
Are you saying the earthquake will have a good effect on the SI economy?
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 09:05PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 651 |
defaultswap Wrote:
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> Are you saying the earthquake will have a good
> effect on the SI economy?
>
My take:
It has to generate economic activity, much of it funded, ultimately, from offshore via the global re-insurance markets.
Also the SCF thing is akin to the govt dropping $1.7b (short term), or a net (estimated) $600m longer term into the economy, although that won't be as focused in the SI as the earthquake cleanup.
Alan.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Are you saying the earthquake will have a good
> effect on the SI economy?
>
My take:
It has to generate economic activity, much of it funded, ultimately, from offshore via the global re-insurance markets.
Also the SCF thing is akin to the govt dropping $1.7b (short term), or a net (estimated) $600m longer term into the economy, although that won't be as focused in the SI as the earthquake cleanup.
Alan.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 09:29PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 103 |
If only finance company fails and earthquakes could happen more often!
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 10:55PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 145 |
yeah! i've got an idea!
let's build some buildings and then tear them down so we can build them again!
what a stimulus that will be!!!
let's build some buildings and then tear them down so we can build them again!
what a stimulus that will be!!!
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 11:08PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 651 |
polaris Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> yeah! i've got an idea!
>
> let's build some buildings and then tear them down
> so we can build them again!
>
> what a stimulus that will be!!!
>
Indeed it would, but don't confuse economic activity with wealth.
BTW: Your approach is what certain politicians in the thirties tried. There were a few casualties.
Alan.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/05/2010 11:08PM by Alan3285.
-------------------------------------------------------
> yeah! i've got an idea!
>
> let's build some buildings and then tear them down
> so we can build them again!
>
> what a stimulus that will be!!!
>
Indeed it would, but don't confuse economic activity with wealth.
BTW: Your approach is what certain politicians in the thirties tried. There were a few casualties.
Alan.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/05/2010 11:08PM by Alan3285.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 11:27PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 399 |
defaultswap Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Are you saying the earthquake will have a good
> effect on the SI economy?
Not at all. 'Good' is an emotive word that cannot be defined in the context of this discussion. Taken as a whole the damage resulting from the earthquake will provide economic stimulus to the region. Whether or not that is a 'good' thing depends on one's perspective.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Are you saying the earthquake will have a good
> effect on the SI economy?
Not at all. 'Good' is an emotive word that cannot be defined in the context of this discussion. Taken as a whole the damage resulting from the earthquake will provide economic stimulus to the region. Whether or not that is a 'good' thing depends on one's perspective.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 05, 2010 11:46PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 651 |
Well put Sir!
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 06, 2010 10:24AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 145 |
Yeah, I was mocking you, rather than being serious...
which in itself is comical!
which in itself is comical!
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Re: OCR Increase stocks September 06, 2010 10:39AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 651 |
polaris Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah, I was mocking you, rather than being
> serious...
>
> which in itself is comical!
>
I was probably thrown by the dazzling technical proficiency
Alan.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah, I was mocking you, rather than being
> serious...
>
> which in itself is comical!
>
I was probably thrown by the dazzling technical proficiency
Alan.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 23, 2011 03:29AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 147 |
60% of OCR march cut
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 23, 2011 07:39AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 1 |
Taurusport...Bloomberg would be wrong re Westpac. There is absolutely no chance the RBNZ will change the OCR in the next announcement. People seem to forget the RBNZ is independent of making a change based just one occurrence in NZ even given it's severity. There is simply not enough time for them to gather the necessary data that would be required to change it at the next announcement.
This is going all the way $1.
This is going all the way $1.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 23, 2011 06:57PM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 74 |
I'd argue there is every chance of a cut. The RBA had plenty of data available to it prior to the quake to show the NZ economy was not running strong. Now that our second largest city will have its contribution to GDP chopped off for the next few weeks, they can easily estimate the impact. And sure it's legally independent, but it won't be immune to the single, largest natural disaster in our history. Also, have a read of the business pages today.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 23, 2011 07:28PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 16 |
Reasonable drop in 90 day rates overnight. LT3.1 is looking to be a good buy at 50c for the next 5 days.
And I'd expect LT 3.2 to be at 99c by now, but I'm all out of cash
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/23/2011 07:38PM by ozaki.
And I'd expect LT 3.2 to be at 99c by now, but I'm all out of cash
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/23/2011 07:38PM by ozaki.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 24, 2011 01:09AM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 433 |
Good spotting, the 90 day rates have dropped to around 2.9 today. With calls for a drop in OCR by 50bps the rate should actually be hovering at about 2.7% by OCR time (50bps lower than the 3.2 we've seen for the past few weeks).
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 24, 2011 07:48PM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 74 |
Yep, RBNZ yield for 24 Feb confirmed at 2.9% for 90 Day
[www.rbnz.govt.nz]
Looks a good buy at 26% today
[www.rbnz.govt.nz]
Looks a good buy at 26% today
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 24, 2011 09:01PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 16 |
We need it under 2.85 for "Less than 2.9" to pay out
iPredict are using Swedish rounding so anything above 2.85 will be rounded to 2.9, not fulfilling this contract. Not a bad buy, but if the market price in 25 bps it wont drop much more, if they lean more towards 50 then we might see this as a good buy. I think ~25 cents is probably appropriate in this case.
iPredict are using Swedish rounding so anything above 2.85 will be rounded to 2.9, not fulfilling this contract. Not a bad buy, but if the market price in 25 bps it wont drop much more, if they lean more towards 50 then we might see this as a good buy. I think ~25 cents is probably appropriate in this case.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 24, 2011 09:04PM |
Registered: 8 years ago Posts: 275 |
Latest futures market reading gives an 88% chance of a 25-point cut at the next meeting, which could also be interpreted as a 44% chance of a 50-point cut (on this occasion I think the latter is probably a better interpretation). Probability of a cut is still going up according to these numbers.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 24, 2011 10:36PM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 74 |
It dropped 0.2 between the 23rd and the 24th (3.1 to 2.9)!
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 25, 2011 01:04AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 16 |
2.86 today
[www.rbnz.govt.nz]
[www.rbnz.govt.nz]
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 25, 2011 07:55AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 175 |
So do you concider that 2.86 is already priced in and a rate cut @0.25 = 2.61 bringing in less than.2.7?
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 28, 2011 01:09AM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 16 |
Well it closes tomorrow... today's data just came out at 2.86
That doesn't satisfy the less than 2.9 as the contract uses rounding and as per contract description this result is rounded up to 2.9.
Great as a short now. 90 day rates don't seem to be moving today.
That doesn't satisfy the less than 2.9 as the contract uses rounding and as per contract description this result is rounded up to 2.9.
Great as a short now. 90 day rates don't seem to be moving today.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 28, 2011 10:42PM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 9 |
It's past 11.10am, so all there is left for the Reserve Bank is to calculate the average for the last day and announce it. The result can't change now, but the stock can. I wonder who has that inside information?
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 28, 2011 11:11PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 16 |
If it was inside info then it'd be much higher than it is now....
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 28, 2011 11:18PM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 9 |
Interesting mind games from ozaki...
I'm all out of cash so I can only wait and profit.
I'm all out of cash so I can only wait and profit.
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Re: OCR Increase stocks February 28, 2011 11:57PM |
Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 16 |
mind games? 
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Re: OCR Increase stocks March 01, 2011 03:58AM |
Registered: 6 years ago Posts: 41 |
I dont think there's any insiders on the 90 day stocks, at 3pm there was a big order buying at 10c on the 2.9% stock, which I sold to once the announcement came in around 3.03pm on the website and an insider would have jumped all over that! For some crazy reason after that the 2.9% stock then went upto about 35c... easiest money Ive made on ipredict for a while!
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