NZ dollar: how high in 2011 against the greenback?

Yep, have tried drafting contracts based on momentarily touching a certain rate (see the draft contracts forum), but it seems to create more confusion than it is worth. I haven't managed to find a relevant time series that records daily highs. The advantage of RBNZ is that it is stable, looks reliable, is authoritative, and is clear.

What advantage is there to a contract based on a momentary touching of a threshold vs. crossing it long enough to be registered by RBNZ, and would forecsasts or trading be materially different or better in some sense?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/01/2011 10:04AM by admin.

The advantage of the RBNZ is that it's at a set point in time and independant of iPredict. At least that is how I see it.

Well I want to keep you guys happy if I can, but from my perspective there is a lot of value in a simple, clean test. Arguments over a contract's definition is a painful thing for everyone. thedoctor's concern might be that iPredict paying $1 may not coincide with what the media reports, which are the peaks, and sometimes and possibly frequently a trading peak will not trigger a $1 payout. But I wouldn't expect ex ante that daily peak vs average would much affect forecast likelihood. I do worry about contract definition confusion, it happened before on US vs AU, so the contract was written to try to emphasise that we rely on the daily RBNZ data only, and confusion doesn't seem to be in play here. So I'm not sure what a peak-based contract gets us?

If a reliable time series which shows daily highs can be pointed to then we could tie contracts to that instead. FWIW InTrade does it the same way we do and not as far as I know on peaks.

RBNZ site is showing 0.8822 now:
[www.rbnz.govt.nz]

88 closed now.

Gonna keep going a bit higher. 89 would appear a great stock at current price.

why would it keep going up?

OCG Wrote:
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> why would it keep going up?


Because America's economy is more-or-less poked for the near future.

Economist Wrote:
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> OCG Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > why would it keep going up?
>
>
> Because America's economy is more-or-less poked
> for the near future.

So what's new

85.2c what a rollercoaster

Glad I bailed on this

well it was easy money for 87 and 88 cents, that is to say it was my money and someone got it easy

Every exporter in NZ should really be thanking me personally, with my track record all it took was for me to buy into these stocks for the price to start plummeting.

sleemanj Wrote:
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> Every exporter in NZ should really be thanking me
> personally, with my track record all it took was
> for me to buy into these stocks for the price to
> start plummeting.


Ah so it was you. I was wondering why the dollar was dropping a sack of sh.. potatoes.

wow these stocks could actually close in the near future at this rate

Hell Yeah, who would have predicted two days ago that these stocks would be closer to the 80cent back door than their top margin.
NZX is looking very very ugly, red across the board.

The rollercoaster continues. Liquidating time I think! Rising again

Oblongmana Wrote:
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> The rollercoaster continues. Liquidating time I
> think! Rising again

yeah the article says "Kiwi rises in wake of US credit downgrade" and I've seen others say the same. Funny thing is the NZD has gone down rather than up against the USD -it's 83.6c 83.5 right now.

Besides "84.14 US cents, up from 83.74 cents on Friday" is hardly news when the NZD just lost over 5 cents last week.

Still, in about 2 seconds it'll have changed again no doubt.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/08/2011 11:59AM by OCG.

That might be a bit premature. The article concludes:

"The kiwi may trade between a range of 83.50 U.S. cents and 85.20 cents, Sinton said, with further gains against the U.S. dollar likely"

Not exactly banging on the door for .89 or .90. Even doubling that range upwards it's still under .87

Kiwi may fall after US downgrade

"...a median range of 81.50 U.S. cents and 85.22 cents this week"

Kiwi will strengthen due to downgrade, may fall due to downgrade... then it's 'volatile range' which is admitting they've no idea, not that you could blame anyone

We have hit the 0.80's...

We have hit the 79's...

These stocks closing at zero are looking pretty good now. Not because they won't necessarily hit .89/.90, but because they'll dip under .80 first (and in fact already have done so - just need the RBNZ to capture it at the right time).

Today's low is .7965: [www.fxstreet.com]

I know that the rate on the RBNZ site is the criteria and I hvae no problems with that but how is that rate determined
Is it taken at a certain time , are the highs & lows averaged or something else ?

The RBNZ page says it is an average as at 11.10am for the period. So I imagine it's the average of all trades in the 24 hours to 11.10am.

It's nudging 82 cents now
Anyone want to hazard a suggestion why ?

As to why the figure is so high, when the real-time data is low? The answer to that is because the RBNZ only publishes once a day, and I'm presuming in the time between 11am yesterday and 11am today, the average was in fact .8179.

If today's figures keep going, tomorrow's number at 11am will probably be closer to .8100, but of course we'll have to wait and see...

torture... so close yet so far. Imagine it now sitting in a 81-88cent range till christmas. That would be hilarious Takes me right back to the AUD/USD fiasco where it popped over $1 (and the stock went to 98%) just to fall quite a way down again without the stock closing due to the RBNZ average requirement. Good to see we're all smarter now and these stocks held at 11-10% despite dropping below 80cents.

Back down to .8080.

It's at 82.50 now
What the **** is going on ????