NZ dollar: how high in 2011 against the greenback?

NZ dollar: how high in 2011?

US$0.87: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

US$0.88: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

US$0.89: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

US$0.90: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

"This contract will immediately close at $0 if the New Zealand dollar buys less than US$0.8000 as recorded in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand data series."

Why? Unnecessary complication I'd have thought.

I presume it's so they can close the contract early if it becomes clear there's no chance of it hitting those levels by 31st December.

Shazzadude Wrote:
> early if it becomes clear there's no chance of it
> hitting those levels by 31st December.


Well, I think "no chance" is something that the market should determine, indeed, it would be interesting.

Just one example of considerable rapid movement (was this one of the RBNZ sell offs?).

6th August '07, .7459
3rd Sept 07, .6905
8th Oct 07, .7752

In the space of less than 2 months, a drop of 5.5c for a period, followed by a recovery of 8.5c



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/22/2011 06:16PM by sleemanj.

As there are now these stocks for the NZ / US exchange rate any chance on others such as Euro / US ?

I think a lower bound of 75 cents would have been more reasonable.

Good call putting a lower limit on it. Everyone has been asking for shorter term stocks and complaining that its capital gets tied up for ages on stocks that close a long way in the future, this is just another factor that people should include when making the decision, if you think it will drop below 80 before it goes up to 88etc then you should just short it and take the money at that end

Yep, agreed Dave, that was my point. If there is a drop that threatens to break 80 you'll get a lot of activity, otherwise it'd likely be dead until December 31st.

The test is straightforward. It is included to free up your funds on a dead question. We can always launch the contracts again should the exchange rate head up again.

Yes could possibly do a Euro:US. Is there more interest in that than a Euro:NZ?

Come on Obama.. Find the solution..

admin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes could possibly do a Euro:US. Is there more
> interest in that than a Euro:NZ?


do both?

Wow, its right on the limit now at 86.94..

[www.stuff.co.nz]

The Press says it has already reached 87c. Does the RBNZ data require 87 as an average or is it the 4pm trading value?

"Average as at 11:10 am for period ended"

Wow, somebody is brave...
Sell 719 $0.9700

(or I guess it could be liquidating, probably is)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/26/2011 05:35PM by sleemanj.

The ironic thing is that if the US debt situation is resolved, the $ will probably go even higher. Not sure if it would get to 90c just on the back of that alone, though.

At the moment it went up because there's a chance the debt situation isn't resolved. And if the debt situation isn't resolved, it'll probably crash (with gold and swiss francs being the only winners). Weird.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/26/2011 05:37PM by Lanthanide.

87cents as at 6:02pm.
Slightly ambiguous ruling as to whether requires "Average as at 11:10 am for period ended" from RBNZ or as defined in the description "New Zealand dollar buys US$0.8700 or more any time before 1 January 2012" ??

I think the "judging criteria" take precedence over the description, as long as there's no egregious disagreement between the two.

Anyway you've cut the quote of the Long Description to the point that it clearly changes meaning. Here's the full Long Description:
"This contract pays $1 if one New Zealand dollar buys US$0.8700 or more any time before 1 January 2012, as reported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand here. Otherwise this contract pays $0.", with "here" being a hyperlink to the RBNZ website.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/26/2011 06:10PM by Lanthanide.

Agreed.

bugger - ah well.
Still doing better than my wife who thought it was a good idea to buy $US when it was at 0.84 *facepalm*.
At least she is pretty looking for an economics major

0.8726

Another leg higher: 0.8741



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/26/2011 10:26PM by shortbear.

Hi - can we please have the market closed on us0.87? Thanks

As at the time of posting this, the RBNZ website still does not show the $NZ to be 0.87 or higher. The latest value is for 26th of July at 0.8628.

[www.rbnz.govt.nz]

Just wondering if I can arrange for a DOS attack on the RBNZ in order to keep that current page in place until the end of the year.... :->

The wording in the judging criteria would preclude that from being a viable solution:

"This contract is not affected by changes in data series methodology, including time of collection or means of display by the Reserve Bank. This contract is not affected by any NZ:US exchange rates prior to the launch of this contract.

In the event this data series is discontinued by the Reserve Bank, iPredict may select a new data series at its sole discretion.

In the event a reporting error is suspected iPredict reserves the right to seek clarification before judging this contract."

You'd have better luck manipulating the market to make NZ$ close under 80c. ipredict allows insider-trading, so this would effectively be legit



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/27/2011 01:22PM by Lanthanide.

Any one want to put money that it will reach $0.95 US or even ( cue dramatic music ) parity with the US dollar ?

.87 contract closed now

I think that future contracts should not be based on RBNZ averages, but the mid-market rates. If the dollar buys, for example, US90c, even for a moment, that is more significant than the RBNZ averages - if they really are that. Rough figures can easily be obtained from xe.com and I am sure if it got them a plug then Bank of NZ, or others, would he happy to declare whether the NZD actually crossed the line.