Floating mortgage rates in 2011 - how high?

6.5%: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

6.75%: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

7.0%: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

7.25%: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

7.5%: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

7.75%: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

20% chance for over 6.5% huh...

yeah..that is a bit low.

[deleted]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/29/2011 09:06AM by Lanthanide.

@ Lanthanide .............. that was an inspiring post. lol

Whats making this stock do next to nothing?
I brought 20 on a punt. But I am wondering why it is mostly left alone by traders.

What are peoples feelings on this stock?

6.5% probably needs 3 25 point OCR hikes this year to happen. Not at all likely so Im short but its an expensive stock to short for 7 months!

OCR hasn't moved for ages...and floating rate was 6.39% from october 2010 end of Feb 2011.
now its 5.90%

OCR decreased from 3.0 to 2.5 on March 10

[www.rbnz.govt.nz]

my bad....I didn't research enough!

6.00% and 6.25% just launched - apply for June-December 2011 period only

how many OCR basis point would it ned to go up for 6.50%


Price is punt-able at the moment.

if it hits 6.50% by years end it won't be due to OCR movements

OCG Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> if it hits 6.50% by years end it won't be due to
> OCR movements


It will be?

well if you say it's punt-able you'd want to think of a probable scenario to pay off your punt.

1. 3x 25pt OCR raises by year end
2. 1x 50pt OCR rise + 1x 25pt rise

3. 2x 25pt OCR raises + bank increase
4. 1x 25pt OCR increase + bank increase
5. bank increase only

i think a punt would be on banks here raising rates due to some rapid change in their ability to source cheap cash, something like a european melt-down over one of the PIGGS countries defaulting. or something.

No-one is picking a 75pt OCR increase by years end is all i'm saying. it's hard to think of a reason or even a dramatic scenario where a 75pt hike would make sense.

do ppl agree?

There is no way the OCR is going up 75bps by year-end. The market is only pricing a 40% chance of one 25bp hike.