US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional
Long Description:
This contract pays $1 if, before 1 January 2013, a majority of the United States Supreme Court rules that the "individual mandate" provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 is unconstitutional; otherwise it pays $0.
Judging Criteria:
In trading this contract, traders acknowledge potential differences of opinion over the interpretation of court judgments and accept that iPredict's decision on the closure price will be final.
"Individual mandate" refers to a requirement in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 for citizens to purchase health insurance.
For the contract to pay $1, a majority of the Court must find that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and therefore unable to be imposed. Justices may give different reasons for finding the individual mandate to be unconsitutional - it is their final conclusion as to its constititionality and the effect of this finding that matters.
If there is any doubt about whether or not a majority has found that the individual mandate is unconstitutional and therefore unable to be imposed, iPredict will be guided by its own analysis of media coverage of expert legal opinions in The New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, CNN, Fox News and MSNBC.
If a majority of the Supreme Court finds that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 does not contain an "individual mandate", the contract shall close at $0, whether or not the court rules that such a mandate would be unconstitutional.
All dates and times are in NZT.