Symbol: ACC.POLICE
Closure date: 1 November 2012
This contract will pay $1 if, before 1 October 2012, the NZ Police launch an investigation into matters discussed in the report by the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) to the Minister of ACC dated 16 March 2011 (sic) entitled “Situation Report - Breach of Privacy, Disclosure of Claims Data”, which can be found at [www.acc.co.nz]; otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging criteria
The purpose of this contract is to measure the probability that a possible police investigation, referred to at [www.nzherald.co.nz], is launched by the police in the next six months.
The contract will immediately close at $1 if:
• the NZ Police issue a media statement announcing or confirming that, prior to 1 October 2012, they launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters
• both www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz report that an authoritative spokesperson for the NZ Police has announced or confirmed that, prior to 1 October 2012, the NZ Police launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters
• the NZ Police confirm in writing to iPredict that, prior to 1 October 2012, they launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters
The contract will immediately close at $0 if:
• the NZ Police issue a media statement announcing or confirming that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters
• both www.nzherald.co.nz AND www.stuff.co.nz report that an authoritative spokesperson for the NZ Police has announced or confirmed that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters
• the NZ Police confirm in writing to iPredict that they have decided not to launch an investigation into any of the relevant matters
If by 1 November 2012 iPredict has found it impossible to ascertain whether or not, before 1 October 2012, the NZ Police had launched an investigation into some or all of the relevant matters, the contract will close at $0.
“Relevant matters” are those discussed in the report dated 16 March 2011 (sic) entitled “Situation Report - Breach of Privacy, Disclosure of Claims Data” by the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) to the Minister of ACC, which can be found at [www.acc.co.nz]
If there is any doubt about whether a police investigation does cover these matters, iPredict will seek guidance from the NZ Police, ACC and/or a Queen’s Counsel. Having taken into account that guidance, iPredict’s decision on the closure price will be final.