North Korea contracts

Three proposed contracts: North Korea to invade South Korea before 1 March 2012; United States to declare war on North Korea before 1 March 2012; President Obama to announce, before 1 March 2012, he will visit North Korea


North Korea to invade South Korea before 1 March 2012

This contract pays $1 if, before 1 March 2012, at least 1000 land-based soldiers of the Republic of North Korea Army enter South Korea territory on hostile terms. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


This contract will close based on media reports of the size of any invading North Korean army.

This contract is tied to the timing of any invading force crossing what is at the launch of this contract South Korea territory.

“Land-based soldiers” refers to all land-based military personnel and excludes military personnel in South Korea air and sea space.

For the purposes of this contract, ‘hostile’ means an act of war or aggression against the interests of the receiving country.

South Korea territory means the mainland of South Korea which includes capital Seoul, excludes South Korean embassies and consulates in any country including North Korea, and excludes island territories of South Korea.




United States to declare war on North Korea before 1 March 2012

This contract pays $1 if, before 1 March 2012, the United States formally declares war on North Korea. Otherwise this contract pays $0.




President Obama to announce, before 1 March 2012, he will visit North Korea

This contract pays $1 is it is announced, before 1 March 2012, that President Obama will personally visit the mainland territory of the North Korea

This contract is tied to the timing of the announcement, not the timing of any visit.

Announcement must be definitive that a visit will occur.

Announcement must state that President Obama will visit the mainland territory of North Korea that includes Pyongyang. This contract is not affected by announcement of a visit by President Obama to a North Korean consulate or embassy in any country.

I'd be more interested in knowing whether Kim Jong Un will be leader in 3 months' time.

Can we have the nuclear test one too? I also think the time frame on these is a bit short, I think it'd be more interesting (read: likely to happen) with July 1st as the deadline.

I'm with Lanthanide. Would be rocket speed diplomacy if Obama was into Korea so soon after the new kid installed, and tantamount to the US blessing - and bowing to - his regime. I don't doubt that negotiations and manoeuvres started long ago, but 1 March is barely time for Obama to track down a grabaseat fare let alone see how the guy plays in the world.

Have launched a NK nuclear detonation contract for 2012, but these draft contracts will have to wait until January now. Thanks for feedback.

Seems that we don't have any Active Stock for this, could you create one admin?

In the meantime:

Quote

Experts say satellite imagery of North Korea's north-east Punggye-ri site, where previous nuclear tests were conducted, shows deep tunnelling, and other preparations may be under way for a third nuclear test, possibly based on the country's yet-unproven highly enriched uranium program.

''A nuclear test next month is a virtual certainty,'' said Marcus Noland, a North Korea expert at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

[www.smh.com.au]

Which ones are you most interested in?
The nuke test one is at [www.ipredict.co.nz]
and leadership ones will be launched at [www.ipredict.co.nz]

I just want a new thread in Active Stock forum to discuss the nuke one, that's all.

Thanks. Done: [www.ipredict.co.nz]