Contract 1: extraordinary circumstances
Justice Binnie to report finding “extraordinary circumstances” in the David Bain case
This contract pays $1 if Justice Binnie, in his final report to the Minister of Justice or another member of the Government, finds there are “extraordinary circumstances” in the David Bain case. Otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging:
In the event the judgement is reserved or withheld, this contract will stay open until Justice Binnie’s final report is released.
In the event Justice Binnie is replaced this contract will follow the final report of his replacement.
If it is announced that there will be no report on this matter, then this contract will immediately close at $0.
If Justice Binnie expresses no view either way on “extraordinary circumstances” then this contract will close at $0.
This contract is not affected by any decision on compensation.
Contract #2: innocence on balance of probabilities
Justice Binnie to report finding David Bain innocent on balance of probabilities
This contract pays $1 if Justice Binnie, in his final report to the Minister of Justice or another member of the Government, finds David Bain innocent on balance of probabilities. Otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging:
In the event the judgement is reserved or withheld, this contract will stay open until Justice Binnie’s final report is released.
In the event Justice Binnie is replaced this contract will follow the final report of his replacement.
If it is announced that there will be no report on this matter, then this contract will immediately close at $0.
If Justice Binnie expresses no view either way on whether Mr Bain is innocent on the balance of probabilities then this contract will close at $0.
If Justice Binnie’s report is withheld or reserved, a decision to award Mr Bain compensation will cause this contract to close at $1.