Greens launch at 10:30am
Greens to agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for National
Greens to agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for Labour
Greens to not agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply either National or Labour
Will repeat for other minor parties
Draft contract:
Greens to agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for National
Symbol: GREENS.NATS
Long Description: This contract pays $1 if the Green Party formally agrees with the National Party to either SUPPORT or ABSTAIN on Confidence and Supply votes after the 2011 General Election (important: see Judging Criteria for details). Otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging Criteria:
Formal agreement includes coalition agreement, confidence and supply arrangement or abstention arrangement.
This contract pays out based on a formally signed agreement between the parties, and not on any prior announcement.
This contract will immediately close at $0 if either party definitively announces no agreement on Confidence and Supply will be made with the other party.
This contract will immediately close at $0 if a) a new General Election is announced; or b) Greens agree to support or abstain on Confidence and Supply for Labour; or c) Greens are not in the next Parliament.
This contract is unaffected by which party has more MPs (i.e. this contract applies to Greens support for National and National support for Greens).
To pay $1 any formal agreement must not be proposed to last less than 12 months. If no end date is specified or the agreement covers the Parliamentary term then iPredict will take this to mean more than 12 months.
If any agreement between the National Party and Green Party is significantly ambiguous on Confidence and Supply agreement between National and Greens then this contract will close based on the first vote on Confidence or Supply. If no Greens vote against National on Confidence or Supply then this contract will close $1; otherwise $0.
For reference, post-2008 election agreements between National and the Act, Maori and UnitedFuture parties would all have paid $1 whereas the Memorandum of Understanding between National and Greens would have paid $0.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 11/23/2011 10:20AM by admin.