[Relatedly, a 2011 to be warmest ever contract will also be launched]
TEMP.2011
Global temperatures to be warmer in 2011 than 2010
This contract pays $1 if average global surface temperatures in 2011 are higher than in 2010.
This contract will be judged based on the NASA GISTEMP series at that date will be used (for both 2010 and 2011 global temperatures) provided it is judged to be a Complete Result. The specific GISTEMP time series is: "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index", available as at the launch of this contract at:
[data.giss.nasa.gov]
iPredict will use the GISTEMP "J-D" annual value (currently in column 14).
Values in this series are calculated as anomalies from the global average temperature over the 30-year period 1951-1980. This contract will pay $1 if the anomaly in 2011 is larger than in 2010 (0.63 at contract launch measured January through December).
In the event of a tie, this contract will close at $0.
Missing Data
For the purposes of this contract, a Complete Result means a time series that includes temperature data (provisional or final) for all 12 months of 2010 and 2011.
This contract will close at the earliest time in 2012 when the GISTEMP series provides a Complete Result, or on 1 March 2012. iPredict will use the available data as published at the time the contract closes.
If, by 1 March 2012, the selected GISTEMP series does not provide a Complete Result then the following procedure will occur:
1. The GISTEMP Northern Hemisphere Land-Ocean Temperature Index series will be used for both 2010 and 2011 global temperatures provided it is judged to be a Complete Result.
2. If neither GISTEMP Global or GISTEMP Northern Hemisphere is judged to be a Complete Result, the NOAA GHCN Monthly Adjusted global temperature series will be used.
If, by 1 March 2012, none of these time series are judged to be a Complete Result, then a calculation based on the available data will be used from GISTEMP Global Monthly or GHCN Global Monthly, using whichever series is most complete on that date and appears earliest in this list. Only months for which data in both years is available will be included in the calculation. For example, if December 2011 data is missing, then December 2010 data will be excluded from calculation of the 2010 average temperature.
Average Temperature Calculation
If a year's average temperature anomaly is not included in the time series specified above, then the average will be calculated as the simple average of the available monthly data. This is the averaging method currently used in the GISTEMP Monthly Global file.
Annual temperature will be calculated January through December.
iPredict will use the available information as published and will not round results.
Links
[data.giss.nasa.gov]
[
ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov]
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/01/2011 02:25PM by admin.