Tug of war in Hutt South

The Hutt South electorate race (Trevor Mallard [Lab] vs Chris Bishop [Nat]) seems to be the highest traded electorate at the moment.

Huge volume today (Sun 31 August) for instance. Those who think Trevor will almost certainly win matched by those who thing former Gerry Brownlee staffer Chris Bishop has at least a 20% chance.

There's been some electorate boundary changes Raises an interesting question of whether National Party supporters are pumping up the price to make it appear like they have more of a chance than they actually do?

My opinion is Chris will reduce Trevor's majority a bit but has no chance of winning - locals know Trevor and like him more than people outside the electorate think. Chris' experience is as a political staffer for Gerry Brownlee and while intelligent, probably lacks the 'common touch'. Plus nationally the bad headlines for National continues, with possible more to come. My opinion anyway. What have I done? Shorted Chris rather than bought Trevor, will keep short until close.

It's definitely pumping up to make it appear it's a competitive race.

Tallyroom's fantastic graph and map here [www.tallyroom.com.au] shows that while the boundary changes are favourable to them, Mallard would still come in with a comfortable margin even accounting for those. This page shows that the margin accounting for the boundary changes the margin would reduce from a 15% margin to a 9.91% margin-still quite healthy.

Not only do Chris Bishop and supporters need every National voter from last time to vote that way again, they also need to swing an additional 2000 or so electorate rates from Mallard.

That is really useful analysis - thanks. Looking around for more that seem to be out of sync. Palmerston North perhaps is one.

I heard the National Party saying it was going to target the seat and the local mayor is going to be a popular candidate but enough to overcome a 10% margin to Labour? That's a tough ask, and a 48% chance of that happening is too high in my opinion.

Another is Christchurch Central - the government's most marginal seat at 1.33% margin. If the government keeps getting bad headlines I don't think that margin will stand. But 80/20 in Labour's favour is perhaps about right. Will leave that one alone.

Finally Waimakariri where Kate Wilkinson is stepping down and an unknown standing against an very well known, experienced campaigner Clayton Cosgrove. This is National's third most marginal seat so look for it to swing to Labour if the election looks like it will be closer than it does at the moment. Currently Labour only on $0.38 which seems low. [Disclaimer! I've bought into this after reading www.tallyroom/com.au analysis].

Palmerston North I don't believe the mayor standing for National will be enough to swing it, in fact I think there'll be a number of Palmerston North residents who will be disgusted they've been voting for a tory for mayor all this time.

Christchurch Central I think the Christchurch East by-election result tells you all you need to know about what way Christchurch will be swinging.

Waimakariri is one I'm hugely unsure about. Clayton Cosgrove in the past has benefited from popular third party candidates splitting the vote in his favour (Ron Mark stood there a couple of times, getting 5,000 or so votes a pop, and then former popular Christchurch City Councillor Aaron Keown stood for ACT in 2008 and got 1700 which handed Cosgrove the win yet again). It's an electorate that I think looks like blue on paper, but Cosgrove is popular.

I personally love tugs of war and partisan traders, when stocks spike or trough you can just cash in.

Looks like we have the Conservatives now throwing money around to boost Garth McVicar's perceived chances in Napier

My prediction is that Labour will triumph in all four seats: Waimakariri, Hutt South, Christchurch Central and Palmerston North. The current majorities that Labour have are too strong in Hutt South and Palmerston North, and the current MPs are popular candidates, Trevor Mallard has served for 21 years and Iain Lees-Galloway is proving very popular in his second term.

With regards to the Christchurch seats, National is going to really struggle to attain votes given the situation down there four years after the earthquakes. Christchurch Central is a certainty it will change hands from National to Labour. Ilam is an exception which will definitely stay National.

Port Hills is another interesting seat - it's very marginal too, and a seat National thinks it can win, although it has about the same chance at winning this as it has keeping Waimakariri.

In Napier Garth McVicars candidacy for the Conservative Party is likely to help Labour's Stuart Nash as the right vote will be split between Garth and the National candidate.

I'm also surprised at Auckland Central, with the odds highly in favour of incumbent Nikki Kaye. In my opinion it will be much closer than that.

There seems to be no duckie hoardings in HS. The nats boy comes across as lost though and doesn't have a shot with turnout for the working class probably high after two nat terms and a close election.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/12/2014 10:25AM by daskapital.