Wanganui or Whanganui? Or both? Or neither.

ORACLE: If the Minister announces that Wanganui and Whanganui are to be both official and used individually, which contract closes at $1?

Hidn

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That's scenario #5 above, OTHER would close at $1. The OTHER description doesn't mention this option, but it must close at $1 because none of the other 3 stocks could. The BOTH description specifically says

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If the Government announces that either name may be used, and leaves the official name unspecified, that will not cause this contract to close at $1.

You may want to read the highlighted bit. If both names are official, then that clause doesn't trigger. But I agree, it's imprecise - and we're now betting on the interpretation of iPredict's lawyers. Which makes the whole prediction exercise a bit of a joke when what we're predicting isn't what we think we're predicting, and when the names of the stocks mislead the predictors.

I'll note that legally the Minister has only 3 options. They can confirm the decision (Whanganui becomes official placename, CITY.WHANGANUI pays at $1), reject it (the status quo prevails, Wanganui remains an unofficial name, and CITY.OTHER pays at $1 because CITY.WANGANUI requires the name to be official), or they could modify it (which could in fact mean anything - such as making Wanganui the official placename (CITY.WANGANUI pays at $1), using a hybride name (CITY.BOTH pays at $1), making both official (see above), or calling it "Fishtown" (CITY.OTHER pays at $1)).

Or we could ask a different question: what if there are two official names, each useable individually? Is that a metaphorical slash or hyphen (BOTH), or a fallthrough to OTHER?

And while we're at it: WANGANUI is clearly predicated on that being the current official name. Its not. Which makes the short description utterly misleading.

mrh Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Or we could ask a different question: what if
> there are two official names, each useable
> individually? Is that a metaphorical slash or
> hyphen (BOTH), or a fallthrough to OTHER?
>
> And while we're at it: WANGANUI is clearly
> predicated on that being the current official
> name. Its not. Which makes the short description
> utterly misleading.


The part of your comment mrh that I have marked in red is the scenario that had me suggesting on both October 2 & 3, there should be a contract for.

As I read the various contracts:
CITY.WHANGANUI is straight forward and there appears to be no issues.
CITY.WANGANUI apart from the point mentioned by mrh above is also straight forward and perhaps, only needs that one point sorted as there again, appears to be no other issues.
CITY.BOTH also appears to be straight forward and has no issues.

However, none of the above cover Wanganui and Whanganui both being official but to be used individually.

CITY.OTHER has the following long description:
This contract pays $1 if the Government announces a new name for Wanganui other than Whanganui or Wanganui/Whanganui (or equivalent) after one or more transition periods of any length, or makes no decision before 1 January 2011. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

The bit about "no decision" is straight forward and will cause it to close at $1. This is subject to part of the Judging Criteria that states -
"If the Government announces an indefinite delay in the decision then this contract will close three months after that announcement, unless the Government either announces a decision or provides a decision date that is before 1 January 2011." - there doesn't appear to be any problems around this.

However, CITY.OTHER, in the Long Description states "new name for Wanganui" therefore, for this contract to close at $1, Wanganui, is out, the Long Description further states "other than Whanganui or Wanganui/Whanganui (or equivalent)" so it's clear, that all forms of Wanganui and Whanganui, whether collectively or singularly, are out for CITY.OTHER to close at $1. The name has to change to something completely different (simply making Wanganui official does not and cannot make it different) or there needs to be "no decision before 1 January 2011" to close CITY.OTHER at $1.

In my humble opinion, CITY.OTHER has almost no show of closing at $1. For the Minister to fail to make a decision in a timely manner, would be plainly ridiculous and later than 1 January 2011 is, in no way, timely. To change the name completely would, I believe, be even more ridiculous and perhaps, be political suicide in the area for National. I am therefore short on CITY.OTHER.

I get a sense of deja vu reading the posts on this thread from the last week or so. I have to say I agree that OTHER is very unlikely to close at $1. And I think people are underestimating the chances of BOTH being satisfied. At the risk of repeating myself, here is a post I made over two months ago:

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My conclusion is that, if the Minister decides that both names will be officially recognised, this is almost always done through the inclusion of both names in a "linked format" in the official name (ie the name that is published in the Gazette). You can check this by downloading all 117 pages of NZ official place names in the "Gazetteer" at [www.linz.govt.nz]

There are numerous examples of English and Maori names both being incorporated into an official name via this method. The following are a few of the hundreds of examples:

Alpine Lake/Ata Puai
Aoraki/Mount Cook (both the mountain and the town)
Colac Bay/Ōraka (both the town and the bay)
Dart River/Te Awa Whakatipu
Doubtful Sound/Patea
Fox Glacier/Te Moeka o Tuawe
Hauturu/Little Barrier Island
Matiu/Somes Island
Riverton/Aparima (a town)
Southern Alps/Kā Tiritiri o te Moana
Stewart Island/Rakiura
Titi/Muttonbird Islands
Waerenga/Mission Bay

Re Taurusport: Yes, but none of those examples are corrections of 'mis-spellings' as appears to be the drive behind the current debate. (I accept that in the fuller list there may be more, but I haven't done my homework to check.)

I doubt that the Government would accept both on the basis that "Wanganui" is an English name for town - it's a misunderstanding of the Maori name.

Yes, this is an unusual situation. But Laws' argument in favour or retaining the misspelling, as I understand it, is that it has over time virtually become effectively an English word. My point is that if that argument is accepted, then the above format would most likely be used.

Decision tomorrow 11:30am. If Michael Laws on iPredict expect major trading from 10:35am. Nice excitement in the last half hour guys! Wanganui Finds Out Tommorrow!!!

Someone must know something in order for CITY.BOTH to shoot up so dramatially. I'm choosing to ignore that reality and instead dine out on cheap CITY.WANGANUI stocks :-)

Right then, who has a seen the as yet embargoed announcement, b works on the Ministers staff and knows the result or c by what ever means, fair foul or otherwise, knows the result and has failed to fess up? Well, don't be reticent, speak up, c'mon then.

Who, who, WHO knows?






Who is it, who knows?









Tell meeeah






Arrrrrgh!

Maybe the announcement today on Maori welfare changes, is a trade off to leave the name alone.........

Folks, regarding CITY.OTHER - the combined payout of the stocks must be $1. In the event of a conflict between the short or long descriptions, and the judging statement, in this case the judging statement must prevail so as to preserve the total payout equalling $1.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/18/2009 07:34AM by admin.

[www.nzherald.co.nz]

According to the NZHerald, it's going to be both Whanganui and Wanganui

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The Herald understands his solution will be similar to the compromises that created Aorangi/Mt Cook and Mt Egmont/Mt Taranaki, making Wanganui and Whanganui official names.

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ORACLE
Who, who, WHO knows?

Well looking at the Net Worth page and who jumped up I'd say #22 and #80 are the ones that know.

This raises an interesting point. Certainly two groups of traders who have an upper hand here would come from Williamson's office or LINZ. If it's the latter, I wonder if they're aware of their obligation "never to misuse [their] position for personal gain":

[www.ssc.govt.nz] and [www.ssc.govt.nz]

Don't be too harsh though, it's a prediction market. We almost rely on insider information.... Don't we?

gr: If they're public servants, that would be bad. But given the Herald story, there are clearly journalists who know (or think they know).

mrh: Agreed. I'm just raising a point (given that I'm a public servant myself)

Oh well, lesson to be learned for me - only trade on issues in which the value of information available to me is greater than the value of information that isn't!*

* Provided I don't break the Code of Conduct, of course...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/18/2009 10:04AM by gr.

Actually I just re-read the Herald article

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Government agencies will have to follow the new spelling but others will have a choice.

It means people will have a choice of which spelling they use, but Government agencies will be told to start including the "h" as soon as they can.

That's not really both being official then ? If the government must use Whanganui and anybody else can use both?

Will that satisfy the BOTH contract?



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 12/18/2009 10:10AM by jmvm.

Thought about that too, but this dampened my spirits somewhat:

The Herald understands his solution will be similar to the compromises that created Aorangi/Mt Cook and Mt Egmont/Mt Taranaki, making Wanganui and Whanganui official names.

It means people will have a choice of which spelling they use, but Government agencies will be told to start including the "h" as soon as they can.

The contract runs on what the official name is, not what Government tells people to use outside of that 'official' name. But I agree it isn't clear.

"If the Government announces that either name may be used, and leaves the official name unspecified, that will not cause this contract to close at $1." [emphasis added]

It comes down to the official name - If the official name was both.. would the governement use both? Confusion.

Yes but either should be able to be used as an official name by the government - as in the other examples.

If you make the government use h officially, and other people use what they like the non-h version will just fade out of use.

When arriving in Aorangi/Mt Cook and Mt Egmont/Mt Taranaki the signs reference both names. If Whanganui only uses the new name as per the government requirements then they're not both official names.

It seems more of a way to make the h the official version while keeping the locals happy that don't want the h, until it fades out of existence.

For BOTH to close at $1 then we need him to say that Whanganui and Wanganui are BOTH the official versions.

That's about all that will close BOTH at $1 right?

Correct.

*EDIT* Short, Short, Short.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/18/2009 10:29AM by LaxTrade.

From Stuff:

[Turia] had not been told by Mr Williamson what his decision was. "He's definitely kept it very close to his chest."

Aha! Williamson is our mystery trader!

"Mr Williamson said the official geographic name for the city would be the alternatives Whanganui or Wanganui. "

Looks like Both.

or OTHER ! we need to see the fine print...

Yes, we need to see exactly what the decision is before closing (sorry folks). Please post links to relevant official sources here.

[www.linz.govt.nz]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/18/2009 12:03PM by admin.

Definitely OTHER. The key phrase is

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If the Government announces that either name may be used, and leaves the official name unspecified, that will not cause this contract to close at $1.

Could it come down to an interpretation of the meaning of the word "the"? "The official name" implies a single name doesn't it. If there are two official names then that would activate the clause.

This close enough?
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0912/S00329.htm

Alternative names Wanganui or Whanganui official

Friday, 18 December 2009, 11:44 am
Press Release: New Zealand Government
Hon Maurice Williamson
Minister for Land Information

18 December 2009
Media Statement

Alternative names Wanganui or Whanganui to become official

The official geographic name for the city of Wanganui will be the alternatives ‘Whanganui’ or ‘Wanganui’, Minister for Land Information Maurice Williamson announced today.

“My intention to assign alternative names for the city allows people to choose the name they prefer.