Roy Morgan polls: Labour/National up/down/nc?

Such a 'chaotic' stock is very difficult to predict which way it will move when asked to predict a single movement. It's a bit like guessing which way a beetle will move on top of a lid - you know it will fall off at some point but you don't know when, or from which side. However, such a stock (or apparently chaotic system, other than the beetle) will eventually strive for equilibrium, and as you stated there should be an equal probability of going up as there is going down. This is correct given a large enough sample and time period, but we don't have that luxury given we have to work with a single instance, and the margins of error could turn a positive into a negative and vice versa.

If there has been a shift one way beyond the mid-point, then to restore order at some point in the future, the voting intention would have to swing the other. Secondly, the further you get from the mid-point, the more effort is required to keep pushing something in that direction (aka diminishing marginal returns). So it gets harder and harder to keep pushing a high number higher, and approval ratings over 50% will have to trend downwards at some point in the future - exactly when is the $64 question.

It seems the members of this community are (consciously or otherwise) following one or two theories : approval ratings over 50% will eventually swing back, and/or the stock will do the opposite of what it did last time. Given the National rating is currently over 50% and it increased last time, order has to be restored at some point and the majority of members here (who vote with their money) are expecting it will move accordingly next time.

This is of course hocus pocus given (from memory) the previous stocks were also picking a fall for National and it didn't happen. But if you think something is mis-priced at 25/30c then you can afford to be wrong 2 times out of 3 and still make money. There is nothing wrong with being a contrarian - it has worked for me a number of times on the stock market. Just don't sell the farm to fund such a strategy (everything in moderation, including moderation!).

So, in summary, this is gambling. I personally don't like these stocks and try to close out my positions (at a profit, if possible) before the results are released. One way of making money on these stocks is to identify mis-pricing which will allow a 100% risk free profit (ie arbitrage). For instance, if the buy prices of the 3 Labour stocks exceed $1, then you sell all three stocks in equal quantities for a value greater than $1 and you know your maximum liability is going to be $1 for each bundle, hence a risk free gain, and vice versa if all 3 stocks are under-priced.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/20/2009 08:36AM by andrew93.

mproctornz Wrote:
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> Roy Morgan are blatantly pro-National? How so?

Have you tried reading their commentaries?

By the way I'm not suggesting that the survey is skewed towards National - just the spin they put around it.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/20/2009 09:18AM by MikesRetirementFund.

What's caused these stocks to change so suddenly?

Result is out, Nats down Lab up.

Ah, I see! [www.roymorgan.com]

iPredict right again! hic!

You know what? I enjoy these stocks, regardless of what other people say!

The next will be interesting, because National at 53% is right about at the mid range of the last few months.

My account will be a bit tidier now so, yes, I'm enjoying them too.

Yes, I enjoy these stocks as well

Indeed chaps, I propose a toast - To iPredict!

Well done folks, stocks closed now. Will launch new contracts tomorrow

New contracts just launched

I am thinking longer-term Roy Morgan stocks might be more interesting. The sense I get is that under the current arrangement, its a bit of a lottery - or actually see-saw - and there's not a lot of interesting stuff to be learned. But a contract based on every other RM poll might be more interesting. What we want is to capture a party's appeal to the electorate and relate that to events. There's a lot of noise in each poll and I wonder if that can be mitigated somewhat by a longer term contract.

What I'm getting is that senior traders are strongly in favour of this stock exactly because the noise allows predictions to be made easily. And the quick turn-around times allow profits to be collected regularly.

I like the current format also.

admin Wrote:
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> I am thinking longer-term Roy Morgan stocks might
> be more interesting. The sense I get is that under
> the current arrangement, its a bit of a lottery -
> or actually see-saw - and there's not a lot of
> interesting stuff to be learned. But a contract
> based on every other RM poll might be more
> interesting. What we want is to capture a party's
> appeal to the electorate and relate that to
> events. There's a lot of noise in each poll and I
> wonder if that can be mitigated somewhat by a
> longer term contract.

Is there anything against keeping the existing type of stocks and running longer term ones?

I am a Labour supporter but I swear they seem to go from bad to worse in the media. I don't think this is much of an issue but it looks bad to people who just read the headlines.

Quote
Bryce Edwards, a politics lecturer at the University of Otago, said that the episode appeared to show a misuse of Parliamentary resources: "I would say that any phone polling at Parliament would fall foul of the rules."

www.nzherald.co.nz



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/24/2009 09:50PM by MrMag.

Perhaps a longer term stock could work on some sort of average. For example, will the average poll result of Labour/National across the next three polls be greater than the average over the last three? Or something similar...

There is so much variation with the polls. This herald-digipoll shows national only at 57% compared to the last Roy Morgan at 53%. I agree with you guys that the short term stocks are very hit and miss because of the small sample size, resulting in a large margin of error.

www.nzherald.co.nz

National Up, Labour down

[www.roymorgan.com]

Hmm dam managed to miss it being out early again.

Still is not present on the poll page, nice spotting.

New poll contracts out folks, in a new format. Ranges rather than up/down, and for January 2010 rather than two weeks. I've posted a blog note explaining why - basically, trying to get a bit more political signal into the forecasts.

I have nothing against the longer term stock and I'm still inclined to believe that this format can be run at the same time as running the shorter type of stock that was running previously.

The longer term stock doesn't have much appeal for me (although I may take part nearer closing) as I prefer the quicker turnover.

It would appear that I'm not alone in holding these sentiments.

Quote Taurusport
You know what? I enjoy these stocks, regardless of what other people say!

jmvm
Yes, I enjoy these stocks as well

mproctornz
What I'm getting is that senior traders are strongly in favour of this stock exactly because the noise allows predictions to be made easily. And the quick turn-around times allow profits to be collected regularly.

I like the current format also.




So although there are those who will prefer the longer running stock there are also those who seem to probably have a preference for the shorter, faster and more edgy stock.

It will be a pity if one type has to go to accommodate the other.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/09/2009 09:28AM by ORACLE.

Yes, I agree Oracle. It would be good to see the shorter term stocks running at the same time as the long term one.

The petrol price contracts seem to show that short term stocks generate interest and attract traders.

Is it just me, or is LAB.JAN10.VHIGH underpriced at 6 cents? Over the last 10 Roy Morgan polls, Labour has gone about 33.5 once, but it has also scored 33 once and 33.5 once. I would have thought this contract should be trading anywhere between 10 and 15 cents.

In the same vein, National to go below 50.5 (ie LOW and VLOW) seem overpriced at 22 cents collectively. In the last 10 polls, National has not gone registered 50.5 or lower. In fact, the last time it polled below 48.5 (currently trading at 13 cents) was around 10 months ago.

Latest poll out : [www.roymorgan.com] .

National down 4, Labour up 4.

As far as I can see national has not polled under 55.5% in over 4 months on the Roy Morgan polls, yet 55.5%+ is priced lower than the 53.5%-55.5% stocks which seems a very narrow margin given national has been between 56% and 62% since september, VHIGH looks a good buy to me am I missing something?

November 2-15, 2009 51.5%
November 16-29, 2009 53.5%
November 30 - December 13, 2009 54%

hmm, guess I am missing something, where are you looking?
I only see these for

for the 05 Nov 2009
New Zealand National-led Government lead increases
Now 60.5% (up 1.5%) compared to Opposition Parties 39.5% (down 1.5%)

& the 20th of november
Labour Party (33%, up 4%) cuts National-led Government support (57%, down 3.5%)

& 07 Dec 2009
National-led Government support (58.5%, up 1.5%) increases lead,
Opposition Parties (41.5%, down 1.5%)

Roy Morgan



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 12/20/2009 10:22AM by r_sivvy.

nvm i understand where this is coming from now

r_sivvy,

That's a bit dangerous. Those number are for the coalition, not National aren't they? Lucky you figured it out.