Roy Morgan polls: Labour/National up/down/nc?

Send me an email when it releases, don't want to leave you guys hanging

What the heck is up with this poll? They've got a page for it all ready to go, with yesterday's date on it, but still no action.

Hopefully, this is not a case of someone using their position at Roy Morgan to delay the release while they acquire a very profitable personal gain.

It's not that I'm suspicious just that, I'm suspicious.

Sometimes they seem to release things on Monday - my only suspicion is that they're a disorganised bunch of slackers!

This is the stock that never ends
It just goes on and on my friends

ahh significantly has gone up in the past couple of hours, anyone know something we don't?

Hmm, smells like insider trading!

Unless like it seems, been watching for the past while on my other screen, it goes up, and has spiraled more people to buy them which in turn has seemed to spiral more people.
ahh should have bought them yesterday

I took up some positions about 20-30 minutes ago, looking at old stats etc. Don't think i would have moved the market that much though. Maybe it's just spiralling up with others jumping on the same stocks??

Part of me thinks some traders have the poll in their hands already, with the way the prices on all six stocks moved at once.

But on the other hand, on the rare occasion that I have got concrete information before the market, I tend to bid things to almost $1 (or short all the way to 0). There is still a lot of money to be made if you really did have insider information, which makes me wonder if it was just a bandwagon effect.

Another thought - liquidity could be constraining the few who may have already seen the poll.

Prices seem to be slowly moving back the other way now.

Time will tell, when the Aussies finally get off their backsides long enough to publish the poll.

I personally think National falling is more likely than 10%. Three main reasons;

1) 51.5 is still a pretty high level for a single party

2) The Bill English 'saga' (I personally think it is overblown) was really heating up during the time this poll was taken

3) The poll has a small sample size and bounces around like crazy - so there is always an element of randomness (Often a fall is followed by a rise but not always).

I have a modest position on national falling, mainly because it was so cheap. But I have been wrong before.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/12/2009 02:54AM by rocketman101.

Hmm, smells like insider trading!

Isn't that the whole point of prediction markets?

David Farrar's September polling appears to show National down and Labour up.

Poll is out Morgan Poll
The latest NZ Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government is 61.5% (up 5.5%) comprising National Party 57.5% (up 6%), Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), ACT NZ 1.5% (down 0.5 %) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted September 21 - October 4, 2009.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/12/2009 06:59AM by mc2001.

Like I said, been wrong before. But there is no way you can convince me that, had those polls been elections, National's actual support went from 56.5 to 51.5 back to 57.5 within a few weeks. They need a larger sample size!

Certainly not a great result for Labour. I'm picking that it won't be long before life at the top will start to turn rough for Goff if there isn't a very distinct and timely change to the overall trend in these polls.

I agree. I doubt very much Goff will ever be prime minister, which is a shame really. As labourites go he has a pretty good head on his shoulders.

National will win next time, Goff will be rolled and then National may be able to squeeze a third term if they are still sweet with the Maori party before a new labour leader strides in. Its just politics.

which makes me think we need a new goff stock without the time limit.

rocketman101 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree. I doubt very much Goff will ever be prime
> minister, which is a shame really. As labourites
> go he has a pretty good head on his shoulders.
>
> National will win next time, Goff will be rolled
> and then National may be able to squeeze a third
> term if they are still sweet with the Maori party
> before a new labour leader strides in. Its just
> politics.

I'm thinking well before next term at this rate.

I think Goff being rolled before 2011 is possible but unlikely.

Sure Goff is floundering, but who else would want to lead Labour right now? Those with leadership asperations will most likely be happy to let Goff suffer the next election defeat before mounting their challenge.

A leadership change would not deliver a win in 2011, and the Labour party knows it.

EDIT - Of course this discussion probabily belongs on the Goff leadership thread.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/12/2009 07:39PM by rocketman101.

Latest poll close now

New contracts just ;launched. Market maker is currently thin, as usual will thicken up at some point in near future

[www.stuff.co.nz]

TV3 poll puts National up another 2 % and Labour support dropping 1%

Ipredict is picking the opposite will happen with 80% favouring a National drop and a Labour gain.

MikesRetirementFund Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What the heck is up with this poll? They've got a
> page for it all ready to go, with yesterday's date
> on it, but still no action.


I'm curious as to how you found that page before they loaded the data. I tried finding it myself but could only get to it through the link in your posting?

I expect Mike just changed the last number in the URL to whatever the next in the sequence would have been on the off chance.

Correct. Actually they had already put up polls 4420 and 4422-4424, so I knew they must have poll 4421 ready to go. I'm surprised they were so slack in putting it out though - Roy Morgan are so blatantly pro-National that I would've thought they'd want to get that kind of result into the weekend papers.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/19/2009 07:07PM by MikesRetirementFund.

Roy Morgan are blatantly pro-National? How so?

FWIW I think these contracts are of worthless value - what interest, research or otherwise, is there to anyone in guessing what the Roy Morgan polls will show about changes in political support over the past fortnight (where the sample error is surely as large if not larger than the average fortnightly change no less). And in the meantime they sap liquidity.

As far as the Roy Morgan survey is concerned I'd be more interested in seeing how people here expected to see the fortnightly consumer confidence index evolve. Evaluating this question at least has some end use as far as making predictions about a variable that is important in determining developments in the broader economy.

gotta agree, i made a suggestion for a new stock over a longer time span to iron out the week to week fluctuations so the stock would be representative of longer term trends

[www.ipredict.co.nz]

Dibbo if what you said about the sample error is correct, I don't really understand why National increase is only $0.25. Particularly considering the TV3 poll that jmvm posted yesterday that showed National up 2%. It seems like it's more of a 50/50 stock to me?

Typically sample error for these polls is +/-3%...so a move in national's vote from say 56% to say 55% is not statistically significant so why even bother to try to predict it? I think that it would suffice to move to a contract on the first poll of each quarter in 2010, perhaps up frequency as the 2011 election nears.