FIJI.PM

Thats how i read it, as of this point, he is only commander of the armed forces, he no longer has the tital of interim prime minister. The contract says nothing about him being reinstated, and being interim prime minister up to 30 dec 09.

If the President confirms FB as Prime Minister, I think the contract is unfulfilled if he remains there until year's end. If no other person is made Interim PM or PM.

Also if we look at the intent of the market - it is basically about whether or not FB would give up power or call elections. It is very clear that neither is happening.

The contract call for "Frank Bainimarama to lose position as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji in 2009" if he is reappointed then he must have lost the position in the first place. This, I believe, is within the spirit and intent of the contract.

Even if he is appointed Prime Minister, he has to lose the position of interim Prime Minister, which i beleive is the main point of the contract. Nothing in the wording that says, and not be reinstated as interim, or Prime Minister before 30 dec 09.

Re: Shatec - not sure, the wording is ambiguous on that one (IMHO).

"This contract is unaffected by the following:

3.1 Frank Bainimarama exchanges the position of Interim Prime Minister for Prime Minister"

Does that mean it must be Frankie's decision to call himself Prime Minister, or can it be the decision of someone else (e.g. the President)?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2009 07:26PM by gr.

dpf Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If the President confirms FB as Prime Minister, I
> think the contract is unfulfilled if he remains
> there until year's end. If no other person is made
> Interim PM or PM.
>
> Also if we look at the intent of the market - it
> is basically about whether or not FB would give up
> power or call elections. It is very clear that
> neither is happening.

The intent of the contract is solely based upon the position of IPM/PM. The additional wording in the contract exists to cover any dead end scenarios surrounding, elections, suspensions and death. The additional clauses regarding the appointment of a successor are there solely to determine when in fact FB's position has been lost. Right now we have a clear result that his position has been lost. Nowhere in the contract does it stipulate there is a time limit on how long he is to lose this position for. There was only a time limit within which it must occur. It has occurred however temporary or ineffectual it may turn out to be.

The test of losing the IPM/PM position is not really a measure of giving up/losing power as the root of his power and influence stems from the backing of the military.

Bainimarama HAS lost his position as Interim Prime Minister, he's admitted as much himself.

It is possible that he will be re-appointed as Interim Prime Minister under the new constitution by the president until the next election, but that won't be exchanging Interim for permanent.

I made quite a bit yesterday going long when I first saw the news and have gone long again today when it dropped to 70c.

I've banked my losses on shorting this one, but I would expect that if he gets to stay on as Interim or PM at the end of this, that this closes at 0.

Latest news: [www.stuff.co.nz]

sativa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Latest news:
> [www.stuff.co.nz]
> oup-brings-further-confusion-to-Fiji


Stuff left out the best bits

"MILITARY commander Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama has decided to return to the army barracks and remain there for the next five years, he said in an interview with Radio Tarana."

[www.fijitimes.com]

Or this: Fiji Times. Money quote:

MILITARY commander Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama has decided to return to the army barracks and remain there for the next five years, he said in an interview with Radio Tarana.

"I don't know who the next interim PM will be - the President will make that nomination," he said.

"I will be back in the military in the next five years to look after the army."

oh boy, i think he's been reappointed. lol

what a farce.


i dont think ipredict can close this now. if they did it would have had to have happened yesterday. way too much trading has gone on now.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/11/2009 10:40AM by ltgorman.

Fiji, what a joke, he's back in [www.fijitimes.com]

I agree ltgorman. The amount of trading that has gone on the last two days is huge, so if the contract was satisfied it should have already been closed. Since he's been sworn back in as p.m this contract should stay alive.

I was long on quite a lot of these stocks and have just sold out of them at a small loss. I'm now shorting these stocks. So if this contract was to close it would be a bit unfair on all of the people that have been doing similar.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/11/2009 10:53AM by sativa.

It should close. He did, for however short a period of time, lose the position.

This is ridiculous. This contract was clearly satisfied:

Yesterday Cdre Bainimaranimarama [sic] told ABC News that he would not mind returning to the post he had held in the previous interim government which took power after a coup in 2006.

Yesterday Ratu Iloilo revoked Fiji's constitution, named himself to replace temporarily the post-coup interim government and called for fresh elections by 2014.

[www.stuff.co.nz]

Now that Bainimarama has been reappointed, the question is whether the events over the past two days qualify as him having lost his position.

The relevant wording in the contract is:

This contract pays $1 if Frank Bainimarama loses his position as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji before 1 January 2010.

This contract will close at $1 if, before 1 January 2010, Frank Bainimarama:

1. Loses his position as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji by any means, subject to clauses 3; ...

For the purposes of this contract, Frank Bainimarama must lose his position as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji before 12am 1 January 2010 Fiji time. This contract pays out based on the date a change in Frank Bainimarama's position takes effect.

This contract is unaffected by suspension or illness unless that results in the appointment of a permanent replacement for the position of Interim Prime minister or Prime Minister. This contract pays out based on the date that appointment takes effect.


Nothing should be read into the fact that this contract has not yet closed. There is at any time value in waiting for new information, and research takes time. The conditions for closing this contract may or may not have already been satisfied - that remains true whether contract closes today or next week or on 1/1/2010. We will take the time required to come to a decision that reflects the wording of the contract. You are free to close out your position on the open market at any time. It is not possible to anticipate events like this when drafting a contract. I draw your attention to clauses 7.10-7.12 in iPredict's Terms of Service.

Next steps: iPredict will research what has happened in Fiji in the last two days, we will obtain the opinion of experts in the matter, and come to a decision taking into account a careful reading of this contract's terms. Please limit your comments to this forum thread. I cannot answer your questions when privately emailed.

I have no financial interest whatsoever in the outcome of this contract. I personally do not trade on iPredict, except for testing.

Nothing should be read into the fact that this contract has not yet closed. There is at any time value in waiting for new information, and research takes time. The conditions for closing this contract may or may not have already been satisfied - that remains true whether contract closes today or next week or on 1/1/2010.

Thanks admin - I will keep that in mind for the future - helpful to know these things on a turbulent stock like this.

So now the trading continues on Ipredict's research....50/50 chance?

Another point, the President reappointed him, he didnt reappoint himself, so he lost the position of interim Prime Minister. Iam staying in.

Thanks gr. I'm sorry if this comes as a surprise, but in practical and general terms it is neither realistic or helpful to close contracts the instant they are satisfied - contracts can stay open because understanding that the conditions have in fact been satisfied can take time.

Sativa - yes. That is an unavoidable consequence when things like this happen. The important points for you as a trader are that iPredict will carefully interpret the contract as it stands, and do so in good faith and without any personal financial interest in the matter, and we will seek the opinions of experts in coming to a view.

Added a link to this forum to the stock definition.

Thanks admin for all of the clarification - I understand that stocks like these can be hard to judge

Thanks Sativa

Was he suspended though?

I thought what happened was that the courts judged that his rule was illegal under the constitution - they themselves didn't suspend him, after the judgement he gave a TV address and stepped down, resigning as PM. He has now has been reinstated of course but my understanding is that he lost the position by resignation and not by suspension .

[www.newstalkzb.co.nz]
[www.abc.net.au]

Surely the intent of the this contract can not have been to close at 1 when FB still holds the position of IPM, albeit after seemingly stepping down for a few hours on a legal ruling that has now been overturned? How many people would seriously have traded this contract on the understanding that this could happen?

Further to the comment above, it strikes me that the fact that the contract is now back to trading where it was prior to this whole episode is sufficient by itself to suggest that the Ipredict community believes that the terms of the contract - as understood by most that trade it - remain unfulfilled. Seems to me that it is just back to business as usual with this contract.

Re Dibbo:

"...albeit after seemingly stepping down for a few hours on a legal ruling that has now been overturned..."

Good enough for me, especially when the contract is to close at $1 if Bainimarama loses his position "by any means".

"... it strikes me that the fact that the contract is now back to trading where it was prior to this whole episode is sufficient by itself to suggest that the Ipredict community believes that the terms of the contract - as understood by most that trade it - remain unfulfilled."

Or that people are following market trends. Who wouldn't have sold off their stock at .90, seeing it take a spectacular dive? I think those that did sell off are now biding their time, waiting for more information, or are staying out of this stock because of the uncertainty. Unfortunately I wasn't in quick enough to sell off, but I have bought up again at the new low price.

Admin's comments above suggest that a determination as to whether or not the contract closes out at $1 or keeps going will be judged soon.

Another point on clause 3.1... he has been reinstated as interim Prime minister. The wording says, from interim Prime Minister to Prime Minister. I guess a number of legal opinions could result on the wording.