FIJI.PM

Frank Bainimarama to lose position as Interim Prime Minister of Fiji in 2009.

I was expecting to see a fair bit of volume around the time of the flood; interesting that it took so long for the big price drop. Bainimarama had said he would defer the elections anyway; the flood rebuilding gives him now a much better excuse for continued deferment. Price didn't drop 'till 23 January. I'm not going to cover my shorts here 'till the price is down around $0.15.

I'm long on this one, looking at what comes out of the Pacific Leaders forum today will be interesting. I hope international pressure on FIJI will result in some sort of compromise for elections this year.

I'm short. The other Pacific leaders cannot credibly commit to making flood aid conditional on elections, and Bainimarama can reasonably say that there are more important things to worry about this year. I'd be long on elections for 2010, but definitely short 2009.

Bainimarama's now saying 5-10 years 'till elections. Further shorting...

I've gone long, having promised elections I figure he will be out on his butt soon enough. The appointment of his mate as admiral of the navy having just been released from jail after killing a guy a year ago should have put another nail in his coffin.
Would have said it was at least a 50/50....

I cant see him giving up power any time soon, freedom of press is always the first thing to start slipping with dictators and the third(?) expulsion has now happened.

Chaudry(?) says elections impossible this year.

Latest news, i'm shorting this harder now.

[www.stuff.co.nz]

[www.rnzi.com]

"Make it 2011 says Rabuka"

Wish i had some more cash available.

[www.fijivillage.com]

Does a court saying the interim government is illegal really change the probability of Bainimarama losing his position?

I dont think there was any doubt the 2006 coup was illegal in the first place, how does this change the situation?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/09/2009 06:00PM by ltgorman.

Are you trying to talk this stock up Itgorman? (...or do I mean down...?
I'll be watching with interest to see if you have any effect.

i spoke too soon....it seems Bainimarama has given up his position of interim prime minister, Technically that would satisfy the contract?

[www.rnzi.com]

Waiting to see what the President announces.

Frank Bainimarama will relinquish his post as self-appointed prime minister but remain Fiji's military leader


[www.stuff.co.nz]

I have just received this question via email:

If the President confirms that he is keeping the Commodore on as Acting PM, does that mean the stock is satisfied or not?

One can argue that he lost his job by court order, and there was a gap of a few hours until he was reappointed so you could say the contract is satisfied? On the other hand if no one else is appointed to the job, then he de jure is still Interim PM.

I will do some research.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/10/2009 08:20AM by admin.

You can also argue that by law he never officially held the position of Interim PM and for all intents the contract has been referring to his unlawful occupation of the PM position.

You could also say he hasn't 'lost' the position of Interim PM as currently there is no Interim PM position to hold as there is no government in place.

I'm not sure. I don't think this contract can conclusively finished until the President announces what is happening.

If he ever held the position he has clearly lost it. The spirit of the contract is clearly satisfied I would have thought.

"This contract is unaffected by suspension or illness unless that results in the appointment of a permanent replacement for the position of Interim Prime minister or Prime Minister. This contract pays out based on the date that appointment takes effect."

I would have taken the above quote from the contract to imply that a permanent replacement must appointed. It can be argued, I believe, that the effect of the court order is, suspension.

Uhhh... the President has revoked the 1997 constitution and all judiciary appointments. WTH.

I didnt catch what was happening with the government. Was listening to radio broadcast of tv broadcast(judging by the sound quality). News sites should catch up soon.

The latest, from Stuff: [www.stuff.co.nz]

Fiji's president has fired all judges and revoked its Constitution after a ruling that the military government is illegal.

President Ratu Josefa Iloilo revoked Fiji's Constitution, appointed himself head of State and suspended all appointments to the judiciary, the Fijilive website reported this morning.

Iloilo announced that he will appoint a new judiciary along with a new interim government "in the coming days" and said Fiji would hold general elections by September 2014.

What's the opposite of a snap election?

So now instead of predicting facts about Fiji, we're predicting whether iPredict staff will rule that he was sacked or not. Great.

Lots of bickering about the outcome, forget about where the stock will actually be judged, if you are long, sell at a massive profit, if you are short, cry....

I'm just jumping around the room celebrating my huge windfall gain having accumulated hundreds of these at $0.30 odd with the price now as close to $1.00 as I care to wait for. ..

Buy low, sell high, people.

Ahh what the hell im going to short this stock right now :|

Ah the joys of uncertainty, up, down, no up, no down, looks like another GM.bailout rollercoaster ride on this one...

Looking at this further I think ORACLE is right...I retract my previous comment. Until we get a new PM appointed this contract is not settled. As per Smartypant's comments this contract already feels like GM mark 2. And I agree that this contract highlights the benefits of being long these sorts of contracts...cullen, clark, fiji...they are never going to collapse to 0 but can surge to 1. Of course, the Anderton contract is the remaining contract of this type. If he doesn't announce is departure this will asymptote to 0 over the next 9 months. But it could rise to 1 tomorrow, Think I'll buy some more.

Assuming.... this contract is not already over......... I would not be confident Bainimarama will be back in the Interim PM seat. I think he and the President (to a lesser extent?) are paving the way to setup a Government to finish the work they want done. With clearing the Judiciary out, he should be able to get a stay or a successful appeal on Thursdays decision or remove any legal obstacles that may crop up in the future. But my suspicion of the moment is that he will be back to calling shots from his military position as he did in the lead up to the 2006 coup.

On the terms of the contract: Do you really need a replacement to lose a position? It seems by all accounts he has lost his position, or even given it up. Even if he is reappointed do you not have to have lost it first for there to be a reappointment?

I'm long on this (again) since the price dipped to 70cents.

"This contract is unaffected by suspension or illness unless that results in the appointment of a permanent replacement for the position of Interim Prime minister or Prime Minister. This contract pays out based on the date that appointment takes effect."

The above is the last paragraph is the last paragraph in the judging criteria for the contract and is, I believe, the most definitive in this situation.

The court ruling is effectively a suspension and therefore, in terms of the above, a replacement is required.

Another aspect that must be considered is - whether or not it is President Ratu Josefa Iloilo's intention to maintain the status quo. I believe that it is and that therefore Frank Bainimarama remains Interim Prime Minister of Fiji.

This would also be consistent with previous behaviour there.

It seems, there is a long way to go on this one yet.

I tend to agree with both of ltgorman's points, and especially the second: it quite clearly appears that Bainimarama has lost his position - he has said as much.

If we want to go even further, it would appear that the office of (interim) Prime Minister either doesn't exist or has no one in it:

The decrees announced so far after the abrogation of the constitution by President Iloilo are the abrogation of the constitution, his appointment as Head of State and the revocation of all judicial appointments.

...

President Iloilo said that based on the Fiji Court of Appeal ruling, Fiji had no Prime Minister and Ministers and he said we cannot have a country without a government.

[www.fijivillage.com]

http://www.fijilive.com/news_new/index.php/news/show_news/15082

Does this have the effect that all positions including Interim Prime Minister (whether legal or otherwise) are void and therefore the terms of the contract are met?