WHO to raise H1N1 pandemic alert to phase 6

Why is this stock so high still?

I'm surprised it's still so low

by all accounts and WHO's own criteria it should be at phase 6 now.

Manufacturers aren't going to start making vaccines for the H1N1 flu unless they get assurances from governments that they will buy the vaccines and governments won’t act unless they have to i.e. the alert is raised to phase 6 so I can only think that the delay in raising the level to 6 is political.

If it stays at Phase 5 and the virus mutates into a more virulent strain then it takes 6 months to produce a vaccine in any real quantities we won’t be around to spend our ill gotten gains trying to predict how bad for the world a virus is going to be.

WHO will have act sooner rather than later and they haven’t said they are going to change the phases they have said they are taking into account the virulence as well as the spread.

I'm inclined to agree with mc2001

Yeah, I'm surprised it isn't Phase 6 already as well. Stock price seems pretty good looking at the facts.

Especially with the way it is spreading away from the American continent now as well, in Japan, Spain and the UK.

Since Sunday Japan went from 7 infections to over 150 confirmed last night.

I'm long on this.

What would the stock price be for Swiney ripping through NZ? 0.15? Lower?

mc2001 I can see what you are saying but there seems to be an over reaction at this point in time. eg its reported Japan shut 3000 to 4000 schools on the account that 127 cases had been found.

Mexico city is a very densely populated city and without saying "only" there hasn't been a point (so far) where what >30% (or much lower) of the population were infected by this virus.

WHO seems to be enjoying using the words mutate and evolving alot. This is the scary part. (To be honest I am worried about any pandemic).

The question is if it does mutate, will it have a new name? And if so will this stock close at $0?

[www.who.int]

They are clearly in no hurry to go to Phase 6 - will need greater mortality as well as spread based on this article. Was long earlier, now going short.

[news.xinhuanet.com]

Guesing this is responsible for the recent surge in H1N1 stock.

Latest news... apparently WHO is on the verge of level 6 according to radio reprts this morning

[www.google.com]

I think this helps give some reassurance regarding the definition of this stock.


WHO will stick with criteria for declaring pandemic, but also assess severity
By THE CANADIAN PRESS – 3 hours ago

TORONTO — The World Health Organization says it will stick with its criteria for declaring a pandemic, but will assess disease severity and advise countries on how to tailor their responses.

The WHO says experts it consulted on Monday urged the agency to retain its current approach of using global spread of a new virus to determine when a pandemic is starting.

"Following yesterday’s discussion, the WHO is considering a three-point scale to denote different levels of severity once phase 6 has been declared"

[www.bloomberg.com]

That would sort out the lack of severity issue

Looks like were not far now from closing the stock.

Margaret Chan, the WHO’s director-general, will make the announcement sometime in the next 10 days, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deliberations are private.

Bloomberg

From the above link:
"Chan and colleagues spent 7 hours on June 1 consulting experts and public health officials from 23 countries on how to explain that swine flu is global, but not severe."

Unlikely they would spend 7 hours doing this unless an announcement to phase 6 is coming. 10% isn't a bad return either for less than a month

Completely off topic but has anyone else noticed how scary WHO website is?

eg Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza
1. Pandemic influenza is different from avian influenza.
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.
3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.
4. All countries will be affected.
5. Widespread illness will occur.
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate.
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur.
8. Economic and social disruption will be great.
9. Every country must be prepared.
10. WHO will alert the world when the pandemic threat increases.

Not an optimistic bunch i feel.

[www.nzherald.co.nz]

Well according to this article they are predicting 60% of people will become infected with H1N1.Scary stuff...

General phenomenon: it doesn't pay to understate anything when you're trying to keep your funding. Hey maybe there's a lesson there...

Admin, that was profoundly insightful. Thank you.

Looks like it might happen overnight!

[www.google.com]

GENEVA (AFP) — The World Health Organisation will on Friday consult its emergency flu committee of experts on whether the agency should declare a fully-fledged pandemic, a spokeswoman said.

Holds steady at Phase 5.

[www.reuters.com]

hmmm.

They are now taking into account severity and not just spread that changes everything basically they have backed away from what they said last week that they would have different scales of phase 6

it could be quite some time then before we reach phase 6 and for severity to increase the virus would have to mutate which may or may not happen.
www.msnbc.msn.com

Seems consistent with last weeks announcements to include a severity index and they are probably following formal procedures & getting consensus within the WHO before making this change.

[www.who.int]

It looks to me like it has become more, not less, likely that the WHO will raise the alert level: [www.google.com]

The introduction of a severity measure allows them to do this. That is, they can say it is "mild" pandemic, rather than being restricted to simply announcing it as a global pandemic.

Sources indicate the announcement is due within days: [www.bloomberg.com]

Yep - definitely looks like it, I'd guess they'll announce the new severity scale either just before or concurrently with raising the level. They're certainly gearing up for it

WHO news conference last night.....

WHO may soon raise swine flu alert to pandemic level

[www.latimes.com]

'"the agency last week decided to augment the current warning system with three tiers inside Phase 6 to indicate the severity of the pandemic. Barring changes in the next few days, the agency will most likely indicate that the severity is at the lowest level when the stage is raised, indicating that the virus is spreading through populations, but that its effects remain relatively mild."

[www.ens-newswire.com]


[www.usatoday.com]
On the surface of it, I think we are in phase 6," or a pandemic, said Margaret Chan, WHO's director-general.

[www.google.com]


"Chan said she will hold a conference call with governments Wednesday in order to verify some of the reports she has received before making a formal announcement. "Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement," she told reporters in Geneva."

With the virus now entrenched in Australia, I'm not sure how the WHO could not declare a pandemic. They're just stalling for time at the moment.

You've got that right. Talk about impotent.

Criminal gangs could exploit the swine flu crisis, the Australian Crime Commission has warned.

"Illicit markets, robbery and fraud through false charities were all potential targets for organised crime"

"Criminal groups may also seek to infiltrate legitimate markets such as transport, finance and government sectors to help facilitate criminal activity and confuse the line between their illegal and legal activities"

Are we covered?

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 7 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2009 03:47PM by dutching.

I dont know what to make of that story. Paedophiles travel to disaster zones and criminals like pandemics?

Swine flu markets to be regulated?

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/10/2009 03:18PM by dutching.

Press trying to turn the Pandemic into a Panicdemic perhaps?