WHO to raise H1N1 pandemic alert to phase 6

Will WHO raise the H1N1 pandemic alert to phase 6 in 2009?

Fantastic stock, btw... a swine flu stock that avoids being macabre. I'd short, but I'm still recovering from getting cleaned out two weeks ago: I'm up to 19c

Unfortunately Canada has its first swine flu death:

[www.stuff.co.nz]

"Alberta's chief medical officer reported on Friday that the woman in her 30s who died on April 28 had not travelled to Mexico, the epicentre of the outbreak, which suggests more sustained spread of the infection."

Its hard to decipher how much is media hype, governments being cautious, WHO trying to show at least as much interest as would be expected, and how much is the real thing.

I believe that makes this a very exciting stock.

Your thoughts?

I think it's easy to be cynical of the media, but it is a real threat. A WHO movement to phase 5 means that it recommends governments and pharmaceutical companies begin appropriate measures, its a system designed to minimize risk before a full scale outbreak occurs, which puts all the huffing and puffing in context as governments do their thing. I mean, if they didn't go through the motions and take appropriate preventative measure and this thing turned full scale you would be pissed. But long term it does tend to have the effect of the boy who cried wolf. eg:

[www.youtube.com]

Looking at the H5N1 virus (bird flu) the fatality rate averages around 60% although the number of infections is small. With SARs the fatality rate was 10% and a near pandemic with over 8,000 infected. It would have been a phase 5 also. With H1N1 we are up to 4500 cases with a fatality rate of around 1-2%(?). Usual seasonal flu is around 0.6% I think. Although the WHO pandemic phases do not take into account to the severity of the virus but only the spread.

I have no conclusion other than the price is probably too high.

And yet this stock continues to rise.... Maybe everyone knows something I don't?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/11/2009 06:44PM by LaxTrade.

Thanks to the_master for suggesting this stock - great that its gone well.

Really thanks to Spendell.co.nz for the WHO Phase adaptation.

Looks like they are going to add to the phase alert system to address virulence. This would make it sensible to increase to a phase level 6 in the context of a virus with a low fatality rate - such as a swine flu.

[www.yomiuri.co.jp]

"The World Health Organization is working on new guidelines on the virulence of the new H1N1 virus to help denote pandemic alert phases, a senior WHO official said Monday."

"A WHO official said the planned guideline is intended to make the environment appropriate for raising the alert level from the current Phase 5, under which human-to-human spread of the virus is observed in one region."

^^^

You forgot to include this quote from the above source:

"The official said the organization is concerned about a possible overreaction by the public if the alert level is raised at this stage. Therefore, the level will be raised only after the guideline is able to clearly reflect the mildness of the new strain of virus, according to the official."

oh yup, cheers talan!

would the upgrade count if the category has to be redefined for it to happen?

I don't understand the question

This may not be exactly relevant, but what the hell. Slide the time-bar across and enjoy the sense of impending doom as the er, killer virus spreads across the states.


[www.nytimes.com]

Not relevant at all, but damn funny :-)

Hi Admin

I think what petermcc was trying to say was that as this security was set up to reflect any change in status by WHO under its current guidlines, would there be any change to the validity of the security if WHO change their guidlines for declaring a Phase 6?

In other words the Definition of a Phase 6 would have altered since the release of this security, therefore, what effect does this have on the security, as it is now effectively not the same security?

For example, if someone went short on this security, believing that under current guidelines, WHO would not raise to a Phase 6, they could be unfairly disadvantaged by WHO changing their own guidelines and making it easier for them to move to Phase 6.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/15/2009 05:55PM by Goose69.

But then you would be penalising someone who went long thinking that precisely this situation could occur....i'm very small long, thinking that people are focusing too much on the severity of the pandemic and not its spread, which is what the alert system is all about.

Any addition will be to address the virulence, which should run alongside the phase system I gather. I'm currently short as the virus doesn't seem to be catching in Europe. The worst case so far is Spain, but it is not sustained human to human transmission.

Goose69 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hi Admin
>
> I think what petermcc was trying to say was that
> as this security was set up to reflect any change
> in status by WHO under its current guidlines,
> would there be any change to the validity of the
> security if WHO change their guidlines for
> declaring a Phase 6?
>
> In other words the Definition of a Phase 6 would
> have altered since the release of this security,
> therefore, what effect does this have on the
> security, as it is now effectively not the same
> security?
>
> For example, if someone went short on this
> security, believing that under current guidelines,
> WHO would not raise to a Phase 6, they could be
> unfairly disadvantaged by WHO changing their own
> guidelines and making it easier for them to move
> to Phase 6.


I suggest to change the definition from Phase 6 Level to the Highest Level, as this was the meaning of the stock when it was released.

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

Interesting article:

[www.recombinomics.com]

To be clear, I would want the result to reflect the wording of the stock, not the intention, just as it did with FIJI, but wanted to point out that it may be something we need to consider.

I have pulled out of this stock (only 125 stocks in it) after hearing of the possibility of the introduction of another phase based on what happened in the FIJI stock.
I had initially gone short in both.

Quote
Goose69
For example, if someone went short on this security, believing that under current guidelines, WHO would not raise to a Phase 6, they could be unfairly disadvantaged by WHO changing their own guidelines and making it easier for them to move to Phase 6.

To be clear, I have not looked into this issue at all, I am only going on what has been reported in this forum thread. Please read the following comments with that in mind.

As we explained in the FIJI.PM decision, "It is iPredict's policy to limit its interpretation of a contract to a literal reading of its terms, except when it is manifestly unjust to do so, and refer to a contract's intent only where there is ambiguity in those terms."

As Dibbo pointed out, for every trader disadvantaged by a change like this, another is advantaged - so it is no use citing the losses for whoever went short - there are equal numbers who went long!

The contract reads:

"This contract pays $1 if the World Health Organisation announces a decision to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert on Influenza A (H1N1) to phase 6 in 2009. Otherwise this contract closes at $0."

Based only on what has been discussed in this forum, a decision by WHO to lower the threshold for phase 6 and then raise the level of influenza pandemic alert on Influenza A (H1N1) to phase 6 sometime in 2009 would cause this contract to close at $1.

Thanks admin.

I personally think it's more likely that they're going to introduce a Phase 5.5 if you like, so I'm staying short.

Does this answer the question????


[www.nzherald.co.nz]

Looks like this stock is staying where it is for now.

Fiji Times of all places is reporting the alert has been raised to phase 6. Must be an error.

[www.fijitimes.com]

Go Out with Swine Flu in Style!

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/19/2009 08:24PM by dutching.

"The very sterile looking white gauze mask inspired to make it more cheerful and funny while still serving its purpose."

Excellent. Gauze masks only look sterile.

gr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "The very sterile looking white gauze mask
> inspired to make it more cheerful and funny while
> still serving its purpose."
>
> Excellent. Gauze masks only look sterile.

I like zip version! "while still serving its purpose"

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.