NZ political leadership stocks 2010

Will Key, English, Goff or King depart any time before 2011?

All contracts launched at $0.10.

They are heavily over-priced.

If you get the predictions and minus them each from one you get the probability that they won't step down.

When these four predictions are multiplied togethor (the chance that all four will stay), the probability is 0.44

Therefore the market is pricing that a stand down from anyone is more likely than a stand down from no one (as the chance that all four of them stay is 0.44).

The chance of all four of them lasting to the election would be worth at least 60% easily, so these stocks are a great short-sell.

The rolling of Turnbull in Aust today should make Goff nervous i would have thought.

Lots of action on Goff's stock today - gossip?

Goff and King re-elected unopposed.
[tvnz.co.nz]
The 10% price then mostly time preference or risk of "something weird"?

Nobody is going to challenge this far out from the election. My guess is that we'll see a challenge later this year (whether or not it will be successful is open for debate).

Lots of movement today - insider info anyone?

No idea. Look like they're settling back down though, so a decent opportunity to make a quick buck presumably.

Maybe this was it: [www.kiwiblog.co.nz]

Movement happened well before then.

Could have been the pollsters taking a gamble. But that news alone is hardly sufficient to bump it 20%, I would have thought.

@Rene: we know the movement was well before that; however, we do also know that at least one pollster trades here :>

Oh, that's what GR said,...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/01/2010 08:55PM by ECrampton.

It looks like a huge jump, and lots of stock did change hands, but I wonder if the new 10-stock market maker setting affected how big such a jump looked.

I had a squizz at the history of the Goff stock through the API to analyse what happened.

Yesterday, between 8.29 and 8.42, around 32 trades of 10 stocks each pushed the price from a low of 0.1775 to a high of 0.42.

The trades are fairly evenly spaced out, suggesting someone sat at their desk for 15 minutes after they got to work and just clicked 'buy' over and over.

At an average of 29 cents per stock, 320 stocks would cost about $95. So not huge amounts of dough, but not peanuts either.

By 10 am, the stock price had been pushed back to 0.22.

More reasons to keep standing out of money orders!

I see what you're saying now.

And I agree, the 10-stock market-maker certainly exacerbates such movement.

Exacerbates? Increases the incentives to leave out-of-money orders around! Some weirdo's always going to come through and put in a block order that would push up prices crazy amounts; you can take his money. Of course, you risk that he knows more about it than you do :>

Three News' Patrick Gower is reporting on Twitter that an anonymous letter has been circulated round the gallery claiming "Union-based MPs are unhappy with Goff and want to challenge him".

"Anonymous letter says: Goff bucked the Caucus that 4th week leave was not tradeable for cash and essentially backed key's position...."

"Letter - could be a) a nutter, b) a trouble-maker, c) start of a whispering/destabilising campaign - or d) all of the above."

More Gower:

"Annette King not ruling out letter-writer could be a Labour MP - and they may outed today. Rebecca Wright will be reporting tonight."

"It started with a anonymous letter this morning. Five hours later its turning into an internal Labour Party stoush."

"The big question in Parliament right now: is an ousting on the cards?"

Labour leadership challenge denied
[www.stuff.co.nz]

Tsk tsk. It was Chris Carter

[www.scoop.co.nz]

Oh well, tidy propfit collected

Where there is smoke there is fire?

Where there is smoke there are people who think there is fire. And that means money.

Great posts mrh - a timeline of the Carter event. Great stuff.