Who will win Mt Albert By-Election

Either which party or which candidate (once known).

We could also have a bundle right now about who Labour will choose as their candidate in Mt Albert.

Yep, we're looking at running conditional markets on this for the first time. Questions like:

Pays 1c for each percent of vote won by National GIVEN Melissa Lee (etc) is candidate, otherwise $0.

These contracts let us do two things. One is identify which candidate is most likely to be selected. The other is a forecast of the party's vote share associated with each candidate i.e. a guide as to who to pick. Often the favourite candidate is not the candidate predicted to maximise party vote share.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/04/2009 05:48AM by admin.