Maintain a public list of how well our predictions were

In line with the research and educational purposes of iPredict, I suggest that all closed contracts be listed on a page along with the market's success (or failure) to predict the outcome. There might be three columns - one naming the contract itself, another column with the price 24 hours before close, another with the price 72 hours before. The contracts which were successfully predicted in advance might be highlighted in green. Those which closed in a way other than how people predicted should be highlighted in red.

This would be very useful to study the successes and failures of the prediction market. Over time we might even see which types of contracts the market is good at predicting and which types it isn't.

I totally agree.

Up late last night preparing a page to do just that. Good idea. Hopefully get it out next week.

Oh admin, your dedication is just too much! Get some sleep!!!

Thanks Admin it looks great! And great predicting everyone!
Now someone statistically inclined will need to comb through the data.
There are some questions just begging for an answer, like..
Is it a valid strategy to by ANY stock above .90? or .70? .or .even above .50?
At what time should we buy -- just before close? A week before? Month before?
And so on...

If you look at the chart at the top of the performance page, it suggests stocks between 35 and about 50 cents are being slightly underpriced on iPredict at the moment. So a very basic strategy would be to buy contracts at those prices. You should expect a small return on your money from that approach - at least based on historical data. Whether that persists is another matter.

Where is this?

Grave digging? this thread is from 2009. I believe whatever feature admin was talking about is no longer public.

Perhaps performance isn't what it used to be.

Yep, just seeing if there are any features I'm unaware of.

Admin could you bring this back? It sounds like a good feature.

Agreed, I'd be keen to see it.

Me too.