iPredict

National's Turner to become eligible to be an MP before next election

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if, before the next New Zealand General Election, Misa Fia Turner becomes eligible to be a Member of the New Zealand Parliament; otherwise it pays $0.

Judging Criteria 

The purpose of this contract is to measure the probability that multiple National Party List MPs will resign from or otherwise leave Parliament before the next New Zealand General Election.

The contract will pay $1 immediately if and when Misa Fia Turner becomes eligible to enter the New Zealand Parliament following the resignation or other departure of a National List MP. It does not matter whether or not Ms Turner decides to take up her seat.

If it becomes clear at any time that Ms Turner cannot enter the New Zealand Parliament before the next election under any circumstances (for example, as a result of death or imprisonment) or if she definitively announces she will not, under any circumstances, take up her seat, this contract will immediately close at $0, and a replacement contract will be launched.

All dates and times are New Zealand time.

This contract will be closed no later than 3 working days after the Close Date. The Close Date may be extended if the event outcome cannot be determined by that date.