iPredict

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iPredict Help

Welcome, iPredict is a place where you make predictions and earn money by buying and selling political futures. iPredict is New Zealand’s first and only real money political prediction market.

How iPredict Works

There are two things to know about a prediction market:

Price is the prediction: a price of 80 cents means an 80% probability of that event happening.

You can make money on a prediction market: buy that stock at 80 cents - if the event comes true you will be paid $1 and earn a 20 cent return for each stock you bought.

An Example

Right now on iPredict you can buy a stock that pays $1 if John Key is the Prime Minister after the next election. If Mr Key does not win, then this stock pays nothing. Let’s say this stock is trading at $0.60. The market’s prediction is for a 60% chance of that event being true.

How do you make money on this stock? Set up an account (it’s free and only takes a minute), add some funds with your credit card or by a deposit into our bank account (start with as little as $5), and buy this stock.

For $5 you’ll be able to buy 8 stocks at $0.60 each, for a cost of $4.80. This will go into your iPredict Portfolio, and will stay there until you either sell, or an election is held and the stock closes.

Let’s say Mr Key wins the next election. This stock will pay you $1 for each one you own. Since you bought 8 stocks, you’ll be paid a total of $8. Your $4.80 was turned into $8.

If Mr Key does not win, the stock will close at $0, and you will get nothing back.

Withdrawing Funds Is Quick and Easy

You can withdraw cash from your iPredict account into your own bank account any time. Go to My Account and click Withdraw Funds.

Note that a small withdrawal fee of 4% or $2 (whichever is greater) is levied on withdrawals, but only if you have positive earnings on iPredict.

A Political Stockmarket

iPredict stocks work like a sharemarket. You can buy stocks in a future event today and sell them on the open market tomorrow. Or the day after. Or wait until they close and pay their one time "dividend".

We offer stocks in a range of events, and we set new stocks up frequently in response to political and economics events.

iPredict Fees

iPredict charges a Trading Fee of $0.0050 per share traded (50 cents per 100 shares traded).

The Trading Fee is capped at $5 per month per user.

There is a 1.75% fee on credit card deposits, which is the cost we pay to our bank passed on at cost. You can easily avoid this fee with a manual deposit into our bank account which will clear in 1-3 business days.

As noted above, there is also a small withdrawal fee.

Get Involved

Get involved in iPredict’s community via the iPredict Forum. You can suggest new stock ideas (most of our stocks start with ideas from our traders), discuss the day’s events, or perhaps rant about the latest scandal.

Learn More with Video Tutorials

Learn more about trading on iPredict - see what it means to buy and sell political stocks - on our video tutorials page.

Get Started Now

Its easy to get started.

  1. Credit your account with some money. $5 is enough to get started
  2. Browse Predictions and find a stock you like, then click Trade.
  3. Tell iPredict how many shares you want to buy. It will quote you a price. Click confirm, and you’re done.

Just like company stocks, you can sell those shares any time, or sit on them and wait for a $1 payout on each stock.

Tips on Making Money on iPredict

As in sharemarkets, the basic money-making strategy at iPredict is to buy low and sell high. You can buy and hold stock, and hope the event comes true, or if you think stock is on its way up you can buy at the bottom of its upwards run and sell at the top.

Research on prediction markets suggest they do not (quite) respond instantaneously to news. The few minutes of adjustment that occurs on predictions markets gives you an opportunity. By being the first trader to respond to news which affects future outcomes, you can make money.

Other research shows that it pays to buy favourites and sell longshots. A noted phenomenon in betting, prediction markets slightly underprice favourites and slightly overprice long shots. This effect is more pronounced in markets with fewer traders. Keep your eye out.

If you have inside information, use it. You are perfectly entitled to do so on iPredict.

There are a couple of more advanced trading strategies, which are short selling (allows you to make money on a falling share price), and arbitraging (spotting combinations of shares that trade for less than their combined value). See our video tutorials page for help on these strategies.

iPredict In Your Organisation

Prediction markets are being deployed in companies and public bodies around the world to harness the knowledge in the heads of their employees. Organisations using this technology include Microsoft, Google, Eli Lilly, Best Buy, Hewlett Packard, and Yahoo. iPredict can operate play money or real money markets in your organization. Prediction markets are measurably superior in forecasting sales and profits, and they can help answer important questions such as whether a new product will launch on time, which of the many products on the drawing boards will make the most money if developed, or the likelihood or success of a merger. Markets are fun to trade in, easy to set up and use, have great flexibility, and, most importantly, give measurably better answers than traditional forecasting systems. Contact us today to talk about trialing a prediction market in your company.

Research

Our primary purpose is in academic research, a rapidly growing areas of research in economics and political science departments around the world. Check out our research page for links to prediction markets papers.

Further Help

Please also check out our FAQ or contact us with a question or a suggestion on how to improve the site. We welcome your feedback!

 

Good luck in your trading,

 

The iPredict Team