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The media is discussing this as a somewhat likely event
1 March could be a bit too early as the end date. Perhaps 1 January 2017? That means 2016 election results are taken into account too but it's before the next Congress sits, so it won't close at $1 simply due to a Democratic takeover of the House (as unlikely as that is).
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
Does this raised quota need to take effect in 2015 for the stock to close at $1?
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Andrew34
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Active Stocks
Alternatively, "Peter Dunne to be MP after next general election", which would depend on whether he stands and is elected or not
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
Not sure if a Parker stock would be worthwhile though.
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
No, if it happens in 2019, then 2020 and 2021 will also close at $1. That's the intent.
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Andrew34
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Active Stocks
Anyone got some background to this? Have rumours been circulating or is it just speculation that Cunliffe won't stand and Ardern might be rewarded with a safer electorate seat?
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Andrew34
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Active Stocks
It's probably too late for the Colorado stock now, but I was meaning only having one stock per state, e.g. Dems to win Ohio. People who think this is likely can buy it up and people who don't can simply sell it. That removes the need for multiple stock options and should hopefully make the stock more liquid.
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Andrew34
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Active Stocks
Is there even a need for a Dem stock and a Rep stock, especially considering they are not bundled with an "other" stock? Besides, the likelihood of an "other" outcome is very slim. We could probably do with just Dem candidate or Rep candidate to win .
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Andrew34
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Active Stocks
Ah, I see now. Thanks. The admin linked to a different set in the General forum, and I was super confused...
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Andrew34
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General
Are you talking about ? Because it refers to a plurality of votes, not a majority of seats.
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Andrew34
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General
Could we at some point have for both the US Senate at the House of Representatives: Democratic majority, Republican majority, other to occur? Other for Senate should probably include a 50-50 split, as the tiebreaking vote is the Vice President, who will be chosen at the same time, and it's probably ideal to have this contract kept as independent as possible from the presidential one.
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
Cunliffe himself has said he is openly considering not standing in 2017. How about it, admins?
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
Or perhaps a sooner date (2017/18)? Key suggests there may a first referendum on the favourite alternative flag before 2016, and the Change/Keep vote could be in April 2016.
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
In light of Shearer publicly telling Cunliffe to resign as an MP, could we have stocks for Cunliffe to resign before the next general election and at the next general election? These could be bundled with a stock for him contesting the next general election.
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
I can't see any of those contracts bouncing around very much, in terms of price.
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
An alternative contract could be "Any video on YouTube to reach x views by day month year"
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
Last time they gave not only first, second and third, but also percentages of the vote from each three parts of the electoral college (caucus, membership, affiliates). Numbers of members and breakdown by each affiliate was "sourced" (leaked?) to the media a few weeks ago.
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
See the other thread in this forum for a previous discussion of why this hasn't been closed. In the Judging Criteria: "A Minister in the current Government at the launch of this contract must depart before Parliament is dissolved for the General Election for this contract to close at $1." Collins' resignation occurred between Parliaments and therefore doesn't make the contract close.
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Andrew34
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Closure requests
Turnout is 77.90% to 4 significant figures anyway:
Total votes = 2,446,279
Total enrolled 3,140,417
So yes, this should be closed at $0.7790. However, the contract's judging criteria state that the figure will be based off an official table similar to
Also, the criteria makes no mention to whether judicial recounts are taken into account (they weren't in the cases of electorate winners).
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Andrew34
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Closure requests
Adding to maxb's point about intent: "Key said there was no change in role with the Maori affairs portfolio becoming Maori development but 'it gives you a sense of where the Minister will want to shape the portfolio'."
So yeah, this should close at $1. Closing at $0 would be bizzare, especially given the lack of detail in the contract judging criteria, and that the purpose of contrac
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Andrew34
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Closure requests
"Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell has been appointed to a new position of Minister for Maori Development...The role replaces the Maori Affairs portfolio."
Not sure whether this means the contract closes at $0 or $1, but it is appropriate to close now. In future contracts, it would be good to include detail on what happens if the job title changes, as is the case here.
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Andrew34
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Closure requests
Can anyone give a hint as to why this has risen so much? None of the candidates seem very high-profile.
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Andrew34
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General
Paying these out at $1 per 1% could make them a bit more interesting.
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Andrew34
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New Stock Ideas
A few typos (independant, spesific) and the first paragraph of the Judging Statement should end with a full stop.
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Andrew34
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Draft Stock Definitions