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General Discussion
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Yeah I'm a bit uneasy about this one too.
Admin appears to be amending the definition to add the requirement that the leadership changes. The current situation isn't an entirely unforeseeable one, so it's doubly unfortunate that the payout dates are based on the timing of departure, and not replacement, AND that the word "resignation" appears to be used as one definition for "de
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Hamish
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Closure requests
Ha. Well the difference here is it's extremely plausible, given the timing of events. But that does't mean that this piece of evidence is real.
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Hamish
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Closure requests
Yup... so I wonder what the email thing was all about then.
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Hamish
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Active Stocks
I think that if we accept the email is real, then it has to close at $1 under the 'reasonable person' clause.
There is this NZ First PR from 2013
QuoteAndrew Williams MP today produced evidence that a director of the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), Kevin Tsujihara, was part of Government talks on The Hobbit in October 2010.
“Mr Key hosted Kevin Tsujihara at Premier House
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Hamish
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Active Stocks
Would be good to have a note from admin about now, because to me this means the stock is effectively about whether the veracity of the email is proven or not. What constitutes proof?
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Hamish
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Active Stocks
Still, could be an expensive rumour for some
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Hamish
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Active Stocks
You sure you have that the right way around?
PaddyPower has 1.28 to fail, 3.5 pass = ~ 75% of a NO vote.
Betfair is very similar.
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Hamish
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General
Yeah, it would be tricky to draft. Contracts also get extended / changed / etc in progress and it doesn't necessarily imply that the budget was blown. I'd love to see one about the $1B IRD "transformation" project with is practically guaranteed to blow up, but (a) I can't imagine how you'd measure it and (b) I fear the project will take so long I'd be dead before a payout
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Hamish
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New Stock Ideas
QuoteLength of time.. ..to form a government
+1,000
Another possibility: number/proportion of ministers from minor parties?
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Hamish
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New Stock Ideas
Yes, you are correct.
In the last US presidential election, InTrade consistently showed about a 10c premium on the Reps. iPredict would essentially track InTrade up and down.
I guess the 10c difference was representative of the cost of transfers between the two systems.
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Hamish
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General
Naw, it's uni holidays. No one's home.
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Hamish
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General
Shazzadude Wrote:
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> Personally I'm thankful to the right wing
> conspiracy machine. They're a big part of the
> reason why I rank 9th all-time on Ipredict.
Hahaha, yeah, same for me being 38th. Well done!
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Hamish
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General
QuoteThis confluence of events certainly looks suspicious.
Oh FFS.
iPredict ran a stock specifically on JC resigning and publicized it on their twitter feed. Why on earth would iPredict run such a stock which highlights her demise, only to then decline paying out MIN3.DEPART to suppposedly cover it up?
Let's keep the conspiracy theories at least marginally credible.
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Hamish
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General
You can't just ignore the criteria that are inconvenient to you. Let it go, or email admin directly.
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Hamish
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Closure requests
More specific statements take precedence. Obviously. How does that even need to be said?
(I don't have a position in MIN3.DEPART)
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Hamish
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Closure requests
Nope:
QuoteA Minister in the current Government at the launch of this contract must depart before Parliament is dissolved for the General Election for this contract to close at $1.
The 50th parliament (half century, well done NZ) was dissolved on 14th August.
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Hamish
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Closure requests
For what it's worth, I have no issue with traders who are not affiliated with iPredict attempting to manipulate the market. It adds liquidity by transferring their wealth into our pockets. If NBR et. al. want to report on it, well it's a pay-walled niche mag telling niche readers about things happening on a niche website. Has basically no relevance to the real world.
iPredict helpfully clarifi
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Hamish
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General
As everyone is no doubt aware, Collins has resigned over an email with outlines a campaign by herself and WO to undermine the SFO CEO Adam Feeley (contract: )
The email specifically states (http://static.stuff.co.nz/files/collinsemail.pdf):
QuoteI have also arranged with Matthew Hooton for iPredict ... to have a new stock released so people can invest in the probability of Adam Feeley getti
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Hamish
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General
Just out of interest, can iPredict publish the total contract value for an event? It would be fascinating to see a running sum total of all outstanding election related contracts.
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Hamish
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General
Well, sure, so what? Newspapers also create unscientific online polls to generate their own news stories. The good thing about an open prediction market is you can fix it by placing orders in the opposite direction, facilitating the transfer of wealth from our good friends pockets into your own.
Nice of Hager to namecheck the site though. Moar traders pls!
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Hamish
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General
KillEmAll Wrote:
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> Te Atatu is anything but marginal
SHHHH
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Hamish
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General
KillEmAll Wrote:
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> Interested to know who keeps bidding up National
> to win Te Atatu
The Te Atatu electorate boundary was significantly redrawn. (see )
The bits of Massey and Glendene that were in Te Atatu have been traded for Henderson and Ranui (ex Waitakere). Clearly some people think this has destroyed Phil Twyford's cons
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Hamish
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General
UPH NAT:
I love election years. I wonder who in Coastesville has some spare cash to throw away.
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Hamish
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General
QuoteI'd like to bet against a Labour-alone
Heh, who's going to take you up on that offer?
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Hamish
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New Stock Ideas
Well, given that you're going to be sitting at #5 at best, I can't see any existing MPs (that they'd want) making the jump.
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Hamish
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Active Stocks
Wouldn't think so, the contract is very clear:
QuoteIf this party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party. If this party announces it will not stand at the next election, or the party is disbanded, then this contract will immediately close at $0. In the event that the Mana Party formally merges with another party, this contract will follow the merged party.
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Hamish
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Closure requests
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