Using the thinking of admin above in their last comment above, if someone other than Cunliffe is elected leader, but not until 2015 does that mean that his departure is not permanent until 2015. Ie Cunliffe depart 2014 would pay $0 while Cunliffe depart $2015 pays $1? Clarification would be useful. For what it's worth - I think the above situation would be farcical given that Cunliffe resiby sipredict - Closure requests
Perhaps in situations like this, where it was known in advance that an event would happen (or there is a reasonable chance of it happening), admin could clarify whether or not that event would trigger a $0 or $1 payout in advance so that these sorts of debates can be avoided. I don't see the point of ipredict as looking for legal loop holes, but to guess the likelihood of an event happening.by sipredict - Closure requests
Also, will the road be tolled?by sipredict - New Stock Ideas
Length of time post election deals take to form a government. 1 week, 2 weeks etc. If Scotland splits from uk, what currency will it use. Sterling, euro, it's own currency (the Scot) Scotland EU member by end 2015 if it splits Harry to get engaged in 2015. Which version of Haka will be performed before each testby sipredict - New Stock Ideas
What about whether it will be completed on schedule (30 April 2020)by sipredict - New Stock Ideas
While fair enough that the fine print contains the clause about the dissolution of the government, it is frustrating that ipredict seems to be for politics anoraks that are up to speed with things such as writ days and dissolution dates. I doubt many people could tell you what these dates are or what they signify. Needing to be a political geek or read through fine print with a legal mind toby sipredict - Closure requests
I think this should close at $1 as the event that occurred is clearly what was intended by the contract. The clause about parliament dissolving was surely only intended to make sure that a reshuffle of portfolios after the election or a change of government didn't trigger a $1 payment. Not to be used as a get out in the situation that a minister resigns in the gap between parliament dissolving anby sipredict - Closure requests
Thanks for your reply. The no MM situation makes sense now. If I understand you correctly the MM effectively dampens the size of fluctuations in the current share price.by sipredict - Ask A Question
Thanks for your reply. I initially assumed that there were a fixed number of shares for each prediction like there is for a company. Makes sense now though that the quantity is variable with demand.by sipredict - Ask A Question
I've just noticed that the predictions for minor parties in the NZ elections pay 10c per 1% party share. Perhaps to make the UK Greens interesting a ratio should also be used, but 10c per 0.1% of seats in the commons.by sipredict - New Stock Ideas
Although there is already a prediction for Boris Johnson to become prime minister of the UK by 2020, how about a second prediction for whether or not he will return to the house of commons, either through a by election or at the next general election? I think the likelihood of him returning as an MP is far higher than that of him becoming Prime minister. Also has the advantage of not having toby sipredict - New Stock Ideas
Hi, Could someone advise what it means when a prediction has "no MM"? Thanksby sipredict - Ask A Question
Hi, I have a few questions on the basics: How many shares are available for each prediction? When a new prediction starts, what price does it start at? 50c? I can't see anywhere that explains how the share price is determined, but assume it varies as trades are made so that when a prediction closes the people expecting a prediction to close for $1 are balanced off by those expecting itby sipredict - Ask A Question