Thanks for finally bringing these back admin. I seem to remember election stocks went on hiatus in early 2010 after a format change from up/down to binned results.by hidn - Active Stocks
Okay, I've had a bit of a time out from iPredict since this all happened, but I'm still not happy about it. If iPredict wants to be credible then it has to leave the stocks open for people to trade on, it can't just go and shut stocks as it likes for dubious reasons, or for no obvious reason at all in the case of these HIGGS stocks. I think the whole situation was handled poorly, but the follby hidn - Closed Stocks
QuoteTerms Of Service Trading and Settlement ... Judging The Market Provider's decision under clause 7.10 (including its interpretation of the Rules and its findings of fact in applying them) will be final. By accepting these terms and conditions you waive your right to seek other remedies (to the maximum extent permitted by law). If you are dissatisfied with a decisionby hidn - Closed Stocks
Haven't had an answer to questions of December 11, 2011 11:26PM.by hidn - Closed Stocks
@Lanthanide, December 10, 2011 11:23AM QuoteSo what do you say to the 3 sigma as being an \"observation\" and 5 sigma being a \"discovery\"?" In the experiment I worked on 3-sigma was always described as "evidence for ..." or "evidence in favour of ..." and 5-sigma was always described as "observation of ..." or "discovery of ...&qby hidn - Closed Stocks
Not a happy camper on this one. Will elucidate further after I've had time to cool down a bit, but for the mean time I would like to make the following points: In the past when there have been sudden and rapid movements with a contract it has been suspended, and then paid out at either $0, or $1, or last traded price. Why pay out at last traded price now? Why not suspend now, and then waitby hidn - Closed Stocks
Completely unacceptable.by hidn - Closed Stocks
Oh dear. Re-emphasising a couple of points from my earlier posts... QuoteThis contract pays $1 if it is formally announced that the Higgs Boson has been observed before 1 January 2012. Otherwise this contract pays $0. In order for this to pay $1 it must be announced that "the Higgs Boson has been observed ...". This will not happen. There are a two obvious reasons for this:by hidn - Closed Stocks
I'm not going to rehash old arguments, but this will close at $0 in a couple of weeks. Lanthanide above is close though.by hidn - Closed Stocks
Higgs stocks up again. Currently paying about 320% per annum, if anybody has any spare cash sitting around.by hidn - Closed Stocks
NZ First vote share: 10c / 1% . The current stock is a bit of a joke, for reasons pointed out in various places. Let it run alongside the current market, and let people arbitrage to their hearts content to keep the two prices consistent. If they're not consistent then I'm sure people will be understanding. You can still use the original (bundled) stock for the electionresults website, soby hidn - New Stock Ideas
kmb56, just buy bundles. If you are short two mututally exclusive stocks and you buy a bundle for $1 then you will get $2 worth of your depsits back, for a net $1 free cash. I'm pretty sure this is what you want to do.by hidn - Feature Requests
Ooh. That's interesting. I would have assumed trading okay, but that you would shut down the forums instead. Look forward to hearing back on this one.by hidn - Closed Stocks
Come on, admin. If anybody has any questions about my tweaks to the contract definition I would be happy to answer. I get that it's a bit technical, but it should be understandable, and it's written in good faith. I'm not leaving technicalities there to confuse people.by hidn - Draft Stock Definitions
QuoteI don't pretend any knowledge or insight myself, but a commenter on slashdot in reference to that paper said that the original research already accounted for GPS issues of the type the paper discusses. Yep. There's nothing obviously wrong with this one. That of course leaves open stuff which is non-obviously wrong, but such is science.by hidn - Draft Stock Definitions
Okay admin, I think this looks fine. Results have been out for three weeks now and nobody has found any obvious errors in the paper, so I think this has legs. Only thing you may want to add is a clause closing this at $0 if OPERA retracts their results, so that it may close earlier.by hidn - Draft Stock Definitions
Not sure about the motivation for including SA, but perhaps a better approach would be 1) NZ included in collaboration. 2) SA included in collaboration, but NZ not. 3) Neither NZ nor SA included in collaboration. The fact that if NZ is involved it will be AUS based means that in reality 1) will trade at the prob for Australia to host it, just a matter of wording.by hidn - Draft Stock Definitions
Ok, made a couple of changes. Looks pretty bulletproof. Only point of concern may be the (arbitrary) 4 standard deviations significance. It's enough that the result, in the context of the OPERA result, would be taken seriously, but low enough to be feasible in the timeframe. Change to 3 or 5 or 6 if you have to.by hidn - Draft Stock Definitions
Tweaked as follows, for the mean time: Quote OPERA.NEUTRINO.CORROBORATE Short: OPERA experiment observation of average neutrino velocity exceeding the speed of light to be corroborated Long: This contract pays $1 if a reputable long-baseline accelerator-based neutrino experiment other than the OPERA experiment publishes a result, before 1 January 2013, that corroborates the OPERA experimby hidn - Draft Stock Definitions
Admin, I don't think it's a generic problem with discovery contracts, the problems with the Higgs contracts were fairly obvious, and I pointed them out at launch in late 2009. It could have been solved with different wording. As a general rule, I think the key is to just leave contracts on the draft stocks page for longer and let the crowd find the problems. I think this is a very interby hidn - New Stock Ideas
Shaaame Multi-trade interface cock-up and slow internet connection meant I bought a ton of the wrong GRE stocks trying to be a clever bastard and arbitrage after release. What an idiot. Think I just turned a $10 loss into a $50 loss, but too confused by book full of 1 stock purchases to tell. Fair play to whoever hit the GRE stocks on release.by hidn - Closed Stocks
Yaay! Did a lot of trading about an hour or so after launch. I wonder if I'm the "insider trader" mrh is talking about? Probably not though. I think I was about 30-60 minutes late. Just wish we'd had more warning. Fair enough if iPredict came up with the idea at 08:30, but would have liked to have access to all the old code I used to use for the Roy Morgan polling stocks. Doby hidn - Closed Stocks
Bump. Timely. Do for Greens, NAT, LAB, maybe ACT and NZF?by hidn - New Stock Ideas
Would be great to see this please.by hidn - New Stock Ideas
@OCG, 6c is time value of money for me at this stage. I'm pretty short, and need liquidity, so if somebody wants to take these off my hands for a safe 12% p.a. return then I'm happy to help them out. Otherwise I'll sit on them to close. Why don't I short them down to 6c if that is the fair price? Because I'm already way too short and don't have the liquidity. But, like I said, if they gby hidn - Closed Stocks
The two big words in the contract are "formal announcement" and "observation". Scientists might use the word "observation" in private, but you will not see a "formal announcement" of an "observation of the Higgs". It's not going to happen in the next couple of years, and the contract is going to close at $0 on the 1 January 2012. If you disagby hidn - Closed Stocks
Will read the article later, but this is still going to close at $0. Above ask still stands.by hidn - Closed Stocks
Okay, who just left up the bid for 70 at $0.15. I'm can't help hitting these bids, but am getting way to short. Currently 852 short, and will keep going until this closes. This isn't worth more than time value of money people. Would like to liquidate before the election if possible. Would anybody be interested in taking some of these off me? Say 500 at 6c? Hit me up here if you're keenby hidn - Closed Stocks
Awesome. Do it.by hidn - New Stock Ideas