Show all posts by user
What's on your mind?
Page 1 of 33
Pages: 12345
Results 1 - 30 of 970
Received this question on email from a trader:
For the alcopop excise tax stocks, can you please confirm is the condition based on a 20% increase in the current tax, or an additional 20% added to the current level?
Not entirely sure I understand the question. Here is the page that lists duty:
Current relevant excise duty rates are:
a) Spirits and spirituous beverages containing mo
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Apologies for the slow response, have only read this thread this morning. Thanks for the email prompt.
As you correctly note, the contract was inconsistent and has been amended to pay out based on announcement of departure on or before 1 April 2010.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Ha very funny. Admin was perfectly sober, unfortunately, but a bit pressed for time.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Hi there, yes it is something we've long been asked for and I have had a note in my diary for a couple of months now to sit down and work out how this should work. What I'll do is get in touch with traders seeking your advice on design and what you want to see in it.I worry that when liquidity is limited the stop loss might tend to destabilise the market or not offer much protection, so designing
by
admin
-
Ask A Question
Andrerton contract just launched.
by
admin
-
General
Any interest in a dedicated Make An Offer forum? i.e. a place to post willingness to trade big orders?
by
admin
-
General
I love this thread. So much information. Great stuff.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Will the excise on pre-mixed spirits increase by 20% or more in 2010?
Note: this contract applies to excise on drinks of more than 6% alcohol by volume and not more than 14%. Some (many) alcopops are less than 6% alcohol by volume: this contract's payout does not depend on excise applied to beverages in this lower range.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Good point - I don't know, but the contract can be worded to say "from here forward" anyway to safely get the prediction. Thanks
by
admin
-
Draft Stock Definitions
Good point re: multiple leaders.
We need to close the contract at some point - 1 Jan 2013 hopefully doesn't introduce bias.
by
admin
-
Draft Stock Definitions
Hi folks, thanks again for the survey responses.
Here's how we allocated funds. You'll recall that you were asked about 10 contracts, each contract asking you to select A or B.
For each user, we randomly assigned one of those ten contracts to pay out on. We then looked at your decision to go for Contract A or Contract B. Each contract had a probability p of a High payout, and probability (
by
admin
-
Announcements
How will National and Labour poll in the first Roy Morgans of June?
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Repeat for 2011, 2012
UK.CO.FAIL.2010
Short: UK Conservative/Lib Dem coalition to end in 2010
Long: This contract pays $1 if the UK Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition ends in 2010. Otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging: The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood that the coalition between the UK Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats ends in 2010. iPredict
by
admin
-
Draft Stock Definitions
MAYOR.ANDERTON
Short: Jim Anderton to be elected Mayor of Christchurch in 2010
Long: This contract pays $1 if Jim Anderton is elected as Mayor of Christchurch in the next local body elections. Otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging: This contract will immediately close at $0 if Mr Anderton is not elected as Mayor of Christchurch, or if he announces he will not stand in that election, o
by
admin
-
Draft Stock Definitions
TNDER.FAIL.JUN10
Short: Weekly government tender to fail before 1 July 2010
Long: This contract pays $1 if, in any weekly government bond tender before 1 July 2010, the total value of bids received in the tender are less than the amount offered. Otherwise this contract closes at $0.
Judging:
by
admin
-
Draft Stock Definitions
x = MilibandE, MilibandD, Balls, Johnson, Harman + Other
UKLAB.x
Short: x to be next leader of UK Labour
Long: This contract pays $1 if x if the next leader of the UK Labour party after Gordon Brown. Otherwise this contract pays $0.
Judging: The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood that this candidate will be the next leader of the UK Labour party after Gordon Brown.
by
admin
-
Draft Stock Definitions
NAT.ACT.PMB
Short: Any ACT MP Private Member's Bill to pass first reading this Parliamentary term.
Long: This contract pays $1 if any private Member's Bill sponsored or co-sponsored by an ACT MP is drawn from the Private Members Ballot and passes its first reading in this Parliamentary term. Otherwise this contract closes at $0.
Judging: This Parliamentary term refers to the term in effe
by
admin
-
Draft Stock Definitions
i cannot find any reference to a signed coalition agreement, but it appears it has been agreed and I am feeling comfortable enough to close the contract on this unless there is reason not to.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Andrew93: agree!
Re: coalition. Based on the New Zealand experience (images of Peters and Bolger 96 still imprinted on my mind), the signing of an agreement between the parties is a public and binding event that would seal the coalition agreement. Based on the iPredict contracts' wording I would be comfortable closing the contracts once that has occurred. Sounds like it will be soon.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Cameron will be PM, but it isn't yet clear if it will be in coalition or a minority government. If a minority, then he must survive a the first confidence vote to close the contract.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Ok, so a list of names potentials is:
D Miliband
Alan Johnson
Alastair Darling
Ed Balls
E Miliband
Andy Burnham
Jon Cruddas
I think Tony Blair needs to be in there.
Other names?
by
admin
-
New Stock Ideas
You're right, it is ridicolous. I'll get right on it.
by
admin
-
New Stock Ideas
The fact that it is not to do with human action does not prevent crowd wisdom being helpful here. There are presumably experts in the Icelandic volcano system out there somewhere and a market is a way to get them to share what they know. So this market would I think serve our goal of forecasting and of measuring the likelihood of an important event.
And, of course, for traders it means there i
by
admin
-
New Stock Ideas
Interesting. Any ideas on how to define the size of the eruption necessary to trigger the contract's payout? Do volcanos have a severity rating or something that we can point to?
by
admin
-
New Stock Ideas
PGC - thanks for raising this before election day. Hard to anticipate things like this in advance - but it is much worse from the market provider's point of view working this stuff out ex post. There are usually a lot more people yelling by then! Thanks for your persistence.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
I will wait for confirmation before closing, just in case. Will close tonight (probably) if he's on the news saying this.
Interesting how high the prices got pre-announcement. It was at 95 cents this morning. Somebody knew.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
I wrote to John Hayes an hour ago to ask what the story is. Hopefully he'll find the time in his schedule to reply.
by
admin
-
Active Stocks
Page 1 of 33
Pages: 12345