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perhaps a bit late, but here is mty 2 cents anyway..
Personally I quite liked 10, but then I am short on capital, so buying more than 25 to see a price change is getting harder, whereas 10 is more affordable. Also tighter spreads mean less cost to cross it, which should mean more liquidity at the margin.
My thoughts in response to some of the comments:-
1) If you want to see more of the
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks
I disagree with Goose69 completely on this one (sorry).
Ipredict has a fairly small stake in terms of paying out on contracts, limited to basically the offset of the market maker from its initial setpoints. Most gains and losses in Ipredict are funded by the participants.
Ipredict have a much larger exposure in terms of getting the right branding for thier market, hence selecting an unpop
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks
I cant understand the MTA.2nd.other prices, surely there is a better than 2% chance that labour will come second ????
Buying lots anyway on this basis, hope I havent misunderstood....
by
smartypants
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Active Stocks
So be it.
Can't say I am particularly happy, having gone short a bit once it seemed FB was staying in power, but worth a few dollars to clear up the 'intent' versus 'letter of the contract' issue for future contracts.
Obviously a difficult decision and not taken lightly.
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks
Ah the joys of uncertainty, up, down, no up, no down, looks like another GM.bailout rollercoaster ride on this one...
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks
If you are confident with this analysis, you should be going long on the NZX2250 stock curently listed as it is trading at $0.31, implying a value of $0.69 for the opposite outcome. Hence you could buy it at $0.31 and wait for it to move up in line with your expectations, which would be the same as shorting the opposite stock (the one you suggested) and waiting for it to fall to your expected val
by
smartypants
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Active Stocks
Oracle is partially right in that shorting a low priced stock ties up more capital than going long on a similarly low priced stock would, however if the stock he suggests was listed, it would likely trade at 0.75, hence to go long on it would tie up the same amount of capital as going short on the existing one.
Similarly the maximum risk of shorting a stock at 0.25 is higher than the risk of
by
smartypants
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Active Stocks
Lots of bickering about the outcome, forget about where the stock will actually be judged, if you are long, sell at a massive profit, if you are short, cry....
I'm just jumping around the room celebrating my huge windfall gain having accumulated hundreds of these at $0.30 odd with the price now as close to $1.00 as I care to wait for. ..
Buy low, sell high, people.
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks
These stocks seem out of sync with the OCR stocks, OCR is predicting at least 25 points cut in April, yet these stocks appear to be falling even though there is less than 0.5 % to go to get to 6%. Are the banks really that greedy or are traders confused ?
by
smartypants
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Active Stocks
This is my favourite stock so far, despite knowing nothing about it I have banked around $100 simply by buying low (under 50) and selling high (over 50). I do this based on the fact that the close date is so far away the most sensible point for the stock to trade is 50. How long this will apply for I dont know, but it has worked pretty well so far.
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks
Sorry, you are correct, it has been updated in the last week or so, and is now complete for 2008. the decmeber value of .307 is so close to the average that it did not move it.
by
smartypants
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Active Stocks
I've gone long, having promised elections I figure he will be out on his butt soon enough. The appointment of his mate as admiral of the navy having just been released from jail after killing a guy a year ago should have put another nail in his coffin.
Would have said it was at least a 50/50....
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks
Regarding 2009 being hotter than 2008, the 2008 data series is incomplete, the 0.324 shown does not include dec 2008 data (currently scores a 0, and has no series postion recorded). Hence 2008 was not a particularly cool year as people seem to be thinking, it just hasnt got all of it's data yet, hence 2009 being hotter is overpriced.
In terms of hottest year overall, a slightly higher end res
by
smartypants
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Active Stocks
I think the banks are pushing their own agenda, and the rapidly falling dollar (even with a present interest rate advantage) needs to be considered also, so a smaller cut is more likely than a larger one. With a 150 pt cut we could see the dollar below 40c US, and inflation going mental as a result, so the reserve bank is likely to be cautious.
I am however mega long on 50 and 25, having boug
by
smartypants
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Closed Stocks