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What's on your mind?
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haha. I just don't want to be that 1 guy in a group of 4 saying "i told u so". No one likes that guy.
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
Peter Chin has a 0.7565 chance of being re-elected mayor? Really? Can anyone tell me why?
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
If Chin announces his intention not to stand in June this stock will close at zero..... Is this stock overpriced?
by
LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
That article says 9 October 2010. But i swear i read end of October elsewhere.
These elections maybe of more interest than previous Dunedin Mayoral elections - seeing how the new stadium/rate increases debate transfers into votes.
Also I was going by the over simplified equation:
Price = Probability of Chin Standing x Probability of Chin re-elected.
Would you offer any suggestions t
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
As above. The price was around 0.75 which is quite a high probability based more on, IMO, Chin currently being the mayor than the likelihood of Chin being re-elected.
Chin hasn't decided - waiting until June
Why not?
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
Peter Chin, born in 1941...69 years old.... yet to confirm he will be standing again for re election as mayor. Surely this is over valued at anywhere over .50
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
The iPad looks like a giant iPod Touch. *Yawn* Lame.
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LaxTrade
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Closed Stocks
If we are talking about numbers of new persons who subsequently leave it would be interesting how many stuck everything down on one stock and lost it all...
Market maker ideas aside, anyone will tell you the way to a successful website is hits. Constant traffic.
The first i knew of iPredict existing was on Campbell Live at the time of the elections.
No one I have talked to or met since h
by
LaxTrade
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General
I also think iPredict should head this way - reduces costs for iPredict n will increase liquidity through people actively trading rather than the current wait and see approach.
However the downside to this is when the stocks are first launched will there be a fixed price they are sold at? Once the Initial offering of shares is closed does that mean there is a finite number of those shares to b
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LaxTrade
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General
Now that you mention it I assumed it was iPredict's way of keeping all bundles equalling a dollar.... No?
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LaxTrade
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General
I doubt capital gains tax is political suicide - despite what people say it already exists in one form or another. If there's an intention to make a profit, its pretty much taxable.
Land taxes would just be the property equivalent of the Fair Dividend Rate in the Foreign Investment Fund regime
But I digress, for GST to increase there needs to be be fair warning. There is 0 chance the GST rat
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
I also hold a short position but I'm thankful for the early clarification. It's appreciated - thank you Admin.
The best thing about early clarification is we get back to trading on the same contract with the one meaning. (& with this clarification the cost of shorting is cheaper than ever).
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LaxTrade
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Closed Stocks
I agree an early clarification on this contract would be helpful.
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LaxTrade
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Closed Stocks
I'm guessing the aim would be that in the future there will not be a need for the market maker except on start up of the stocks?
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LaxTrade
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Closed Stocks
gr, i apologise, i tried to use my warped sense of humour and my post was too long so i will summarise:
My proposal is:
All contracts are completely literal. (eg BOTH=BOTH not BOTH=EITHER)
OTHER stocks cover every other instance.
(For gr) Research done prior to contract being written.
For those that went long on BOTH. The result is what it is. I'm not worried, you did well!
I would
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
IMHO Black or white is not the same as black and white (gray).
Contracts: Meeting of the minds?
I believe after reading the judgement that BOTH became a limited use Catch all. But I believe when these contracts were written on here BOTH was not a designated catch-all. OTHER did that job. So unless the BOTH requirements are matched exactly it is knocked out. The rest of the Contracts go throu
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
Its still anyones bet - holidays can be a killer.
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LaxTrade
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Closed Stocks
And it is really the only option available to iPredict when something like this comes up. It was touted as the best option after the Fiji debate. It shows that there is definately a level of uncertainty and that it is currently being investigated.
If that doesn't make sense imagine that the stocks are now closed... just no one has been paid out... and we don't know the (legal) outcome...
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LaxTrade
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Closed Stocks
I feel that way about every stock I've ever purchased. Although I have an added condition that I need to have made a profit also.
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LaxTrade
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Closed Stocks
I was about to say - haven't had this much fun since Easter! Hope we got something planned for the next big public holidays....
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
"What is the difference between alternative naming and dual naming?
Dual names such as Aoraki/Mount Cook must appear together in official documents. The purpose of alternative names is to provide a choice of name where the existing name is strongly established and to enable either name to appear in official documents – for example the alternative Mount Taranaki or Mount Egmont. "
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
"If the Government announces that either name may be used, and leaves the official name unspecified, that will not cause this contract to close at $1."
It comes down to the official name - If the official name was both.. would the governement use both? Confusion.
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
Don't be too harsh though, it's a prediction market. We almost rely on insider information.... Don't we?
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
Chartered Accountant. My personality balances with my posts credibility. Disappointing accounting pun. Sorry.
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LaxTrade
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General
Decision tomorrow 11:30am. If Michael Laws on iPredict expect major trading from 10:35am. Nice excitement in the last half hour guys! Wanganui Finds Out Tommorrow!!!
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LaxTrade
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Active Stocks
Same style of hat that you would've expected Michael Jackson or, perhaps more appropriately, Justin Timberlake to wear. (Rimmed hat curled at back, moving to flatter rim at front).
by
LaxTrade
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General
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