Electorates 2014

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Shazzadude Wrote:
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> There's probably only 20 electorates (out of 71)
> that are definitively "safe".


What is your definition of a marginal seat?

Patzcuaro1 Wrote:
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> Shazzadude Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > There's probably only 20 electorates (out of
> 71)
> > that are definitively "safe".
>
>
> What is your definition of a marginal seat?

Well when I say only 20 out of 71 seats are definitively safe, I'm not saying the rest are marginals, rather that 51 seats are moveable in the right conditions (e.g. Northcote, Otago and Wairarapa being won by Labour in 2002, or National winning Christchurch Central last election).

But to answer your question, I think a marginal is any general seat held by less than 3000 votes (and probably 1500 for a Maori seat).

What happens with these contracts if the party named in the contract is renamed or merges with another party? Does the contract follow the new party, as it does with the ES.2014.* contracts?

Good question

The electorate contracts will only pay out if the candidate for the specified party wins the seat. A candidate for a differently named party winning the seat would not be sufficient for the contract to close at $1, ie if the party was renamed or merged with another party and took a different name, the contract would close at $0.

However, if the specified party was part of an agreement with another party but still remained an independent party and stood a candidate, who won the seat, this would cause the contract to close at $1.

The specific case we suspect you are referring to would be if the Mana Party combined with the Internet party, so we will use E14.TTT.MANA as an example for clarity. If the two parties combine and the combined entity is called Mana Party, then a candidate from that party winning would cause it to close at $1. If the two parties combine and the combined entity is called Internet Party, or some other name, then a candidate from that party winning would cause the contract to close at $0. If the two parties have a vote share agreement and a combined list, but still stand electorate candidates independently and a Mana Party candidate wins the seat, then the contract will close at $1.

Maybe we need stocks on the Mana Party and the Internet Party to sign an alliance or similar.

Just wondering about the Helensville market. How is this not a 99.9% for National, and who is the "Other" candidate who is alleged to have an outside chance?

Key to be National Party leader on Nomination Day took a bungy jump yesterday.

Most of the current National MPs in the Northern Region have already been confirmed as candidates in the September election except Helensville, ECB & Maungakiekie.

[www.mynational.org.nz]

Key & McCully could be looking at going list only I guess, keeping options open for any deal with Conservatives, if required. Both Upper Harbour & Rodney have sitting MPs confirmed at this stage. At this point in their careers an electorate seats is probably not so important and they both would have high list positions.

I wonder why there's a bit of movement of late in Labour's favour on Hamilton East? Typically it's the hardest of the two Hamiltons for Labour to win.