Leaders to depart before next general election

Key: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Goff: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Norman: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Turei: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Turia: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Sharples: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Hide: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Dunne: [www.ipredict.co.nz]

Seriously?!?

Phil Goff to depart trading at 38c? [www.ipredict.co.nz]

I gather there was a spike due to these supposed revelations about his rental property.

I agree bkd, I mean wtf as if Labour is going to dump Goff going into an election. Even 34% now is bs.

It should be 5%, 10% tops so I can buy cheap and make millions when Helen Clark swoops in and fulfills her ultimate destiny as supreme leader, probably biting Phil's head off while at it (sorry Phil but you'd have to admit it's pretty likely).

I'd agree that 38c is a sell (back down to 23c as I write), but it's happened before... Geoffrey Palmer anyone? Admittedly Goff has more appeal than Palmer ever did, but he's not gaining any more traction with the electorate, is he?

I guess it depends on who wants to take over as well, the top contenders are best to bide their time.

If someone out there really thinks Goff is a 38% chance of stepping down as leader, then Mallard is probably worth a punt too. Cunliffe won't want to blow his chance of being PM now, while Mallard would have nothing to lose, and would provide an alternative to Key.

Quote
Shazzadude
If someone out there really thinks Goff is a 38% chance of stepping down as leader, then Mallard is probably worth a punt too.

Be still, my beating heart!

With Goff a 50-60% chance of not leading Labour to the election, I sniff someone on ipredict knows something the media and joe bloggs doesn't. Has put me off going any shorter anyway as replacing Goff so close to an election is surrender (unless Helens coming back to sort the mess out!)

Does anyone buying this at 50c want to share their reasoning?

I think somebody/bodies was just taking a punt there,
1) if it was somebody with actual inside knowledge, they wouldn't have stopped at 50c unless it's not THAT good knowledge
2) really, kicking out a leader this close to election, with no real publically visible/known people who would step into the role, pointless election suicide, surely, unless Ms Clarke wants to return, that is the only way that they'd have any chance if PG was kicked at this late stage.

Looking at the most publically visible high ranking Labour members, they are either not going to want the job, not be available during this election (Mallard is just a bit injured!), not be wanted for the job, or just not liked by the public.

And any leader coming in at this late stage, and inevitably losing the election, doesn't bode well for their future.

I am quite short on this and showing large (for me) red numbers, but I think I'll stick it out, I just don't see a leadership change at this very late stage in the game unless somebody dies!

@sleemanj

Yes I think you might be right, as the reactions have happened just after the 6pm news the last 2 nights too and this contracts losing it's steam now it seems - in that case buying this up as high as 68c is nuts!

Very short on this too, but the reds starting to look a little greener!

Got this off tvnz

"But one of the party's rising stars, who asked not to be named, said next week's meeting was likely to crystallise how angry MPs were..."

Does anyone know when this meeting is?

I think it's Monday sometime.

As much as you try to rationalize politics, the farce over in Australia before the last elections shows anything is possible when it comes to leadership changes.

I agree. Labour Party president Andrew Little is resigning in April and he is a huge Goff supporter, and remember Goff made powerful enemy's when he passed over the 2008 intake in the recent reshuffle

Goff Safe For Now

"I wouldn't say I'm on Phil's side but there's no one else."
"A few of the guys are rattled but not enough for a spill."
"Come on Bro - who would want that job?"

I think those 3 lines sum up the situation for Labour.

"Come on Bro - who would want that job?"

Haha love this line.. its spot on though, why would anyone apply for a job when you know its guaranteed to end in failure (unless your names Helen Clarke) While I appreciate ousting of a leader in Australia went to plan.. Australia at election time was in far less of a desperate economic situation then we are here right now so change was far more acceptable.

Quote
youareapirate
While I appreciate ousting of a leader in Australia went to plan.. Australia at election time was in far less of a desperate economic situation then we are here right now so change was far more acceptable.

You're comparing the leadership coup of a governing party to that of a lame duck opposition one.

The implications of the economy on said parties are therefore exactly opposite from each other.

All depends on how Labour polls over the next month or two. If they fall back to 25-26, then those in caucus who think they will lose their seat under that scenario (and there will be a few) will make a move and the person who takes the job will get no blame for the expected loss in November. What they're weighing up now is how much damage has been done to Goff's credibility that's going to make those critical leader debates in the campaign make him look a dodo - a slip in the polls over the next few weeks tells them there's a real problem ahead.

You mean Goff had some credibility to start with?

These three charts suggest someone knows something the rest of us don't - presumably that Hide is stepping down and not joining National.*

Would anyone care to enlighten us?


* Or they're trying to manipulate the market, perhaps as the weekly snapshot hasn't yet been done.

[www.nbr.co.nz]

That may explain the drop in Act's chances of winning Epsom, but I don't see an explanation for the rise in odds of Hide departing before the election.

[www.odt.co.nz]

gr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That may explain the drop in Act's chances of
> winning Epsom, but I don't see an explanation for
> the rise in odds of Hide departing before the
> election.

Apparently there were rumours that either Boscawen or Calvert had swapped sides, which lead to a spike on the stock.

gr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> These three charts suggest someone knows something
> the rest of us don't - presumably that Hide is
> stepping down and not joining National.*
>
> Would anyone care to enlighten us?
>
>
> * Or they're trying to manipulate the market,
> perhaps as the weekly snapshot hasn't yet been
> done.

Well we know the answer now-Don Brash wants the ACT leadership.

Fascinating. Yet another lesson to me to be aware of sharp, consistent spikes in contracts.

There was a spike in Goff leaving stocks this morning to 20%+ (before I sold it down, which probably means it'll be $1 in about 5 mins) anyone know why?

Up from a fairly consistent 9% last night I might add

Well it can't be from this poll result: [www.roymorgan.com]

Could admin please confirm the judgement criteria and close date of these contracts.

Currently the close date is 1st of Jan 2012, and the judging criteria says that the contracts will close at $1 if the leader departs before the day of the general election.

There is no mention of when the contracts may close at $0.

For example, if the general election is held on the 26th of November, the contracts as currently written will not close until 1st of Jan 2012.

Will the contracts close at $0 on the day of the general election prior to 1st of Jan 2012 if it is shown that the leaders have not departed?

Yes. 1 Jan 2012 was set at time of launch because election day was unknown.