The following is a draft wording for a contract we are considering on Scottish Independence. Your thoughts would be appreciated:
Long Description
This contract will close at $1 if a Scottish referendum held to make Scotland Independant of the United Kingdom passes before 1 January 2015. Otherwise the contract closes at $0
Judging Statement
In order for this contract to make Scotland independant, the referendum must propose to make Scotland a state no longer part of the United Kingdom. Wording such as 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' or similar would suffice if the referendum were not tied to any spesific written proposal
If the referendum is explicitly tied to a written proposal (including draft legislation) for independence this must eventually include or be a direct precurser to Scotland no longer holding seats in the UK House of Commons, and the UK Parliament no longer having law making power in Scotland. Any referendum held under the 'Edinburgh Agreement' (background here [www.independent.co.uk] likely qualify, however iPredict's decision on this matter is final.
Whether or not the referendum passes will be determined by the terms of the referendum, and/or legislation which creates the referendum. It may be that the referendum requires a 'simple majority' of 50%+1 votes to pass, or a higher 'super majority'. If there is any doubt then a 50%+1 simple majority test will be used to determine if the referendum passes.
If a referendum is held on Scottish Independence and that referendum fails to pass, and in iPredict's judgement there is no chance of another referendum being held before 1 January 2015 then this contract will immediately close at $0.
If no referendum is held before 1 Jan 2015 then this contract will close at $0.
iPredict's judgement is final