Next National Party leader

Next leader of National. Labour contract will use the same template when current contracts close. 9 names + Other, bundled.


NATLEAD.[NAME]

[Name] to be next National Party leader

This contract pays $1 if [Name] is announced as the next leader of the New Zealand National Party. Otherwise this contract pays $0.


The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood the person named in this contract is the next Leader of the NZ National Party.

This contract will immediately close when a definitive announcement of an appointment of the next Leader of the National Party is announced by a person holding suitable authority.

This contract will immediately close at $0 if this person definitively announces their retirement from Parliament or it is certain that this person will be unable to be Leader for any reason.

If the National Party is renamed, this contract will follow the renamed party.

In the event the National Party formally splits, then this contract will follow the post-split party named “National Party” or “National”. If both or neither parties are so-named, then this contract will follow the party which contains the current (or most recent) leader of the pre-split National Party. In the event neither party satisfies these conditions, this contract will close at $0.

If the National Party is disbanded then this contract will close at $0.

If the National Party formally merges with another party then this contract will follow the merged entity.

In the event N co-leaders are simultaneously appointed, and this candidate is among them, then this contract will close at $1/N.

In the event more than one Leader is simultaneously appointed to serve sequentially (one after the other) then this contract will pay out based on the first person to lead.

This contract pay out based on a permanent appointment to Leader and is not affected by interim or temporary appointments.

This contract is not affected by legal challenge, except where an appointment is announced as being conditional on the outcome of a legal challenge.

If an announcement is conditional, then those conditions must be met before this contract can close.

This contract will remain open until the next Leader of the National Party is announced. The closing date on this contract is included only due to this site’s code requirements and should be disregarded.

For the purposes of this contract, “next” refers to a person different to the National Party leader at the launch of this contract i.e. this contract is not affected by any the reappointment of John Key to Leader.

"This contract will immediately close at $0 if this person definitively announces their retirement from Parliament or it is certain that this person will be unable to be Leader for any reason. "

Instead of "retirement from Parliament" this should be "retirement from national-level politics". Don Brash is leader of ACT outside of Parliament, for example.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/10/2011 10:29AM by Lanthanide.

Could we hold off bundling for a while? The Republican nominee candidates aren't yet bundled, and their selection is only a few months away. If National win this election, the next National Party leader is probably at least 2-4 years from being known. Anyone could pop up in the woodwork between now and then.

Off topic, the Republican nominee candidates can probably be bundled with an Other now, as the field is pretty settled.

Lanthanide: yes, that's a good point to raise. The Brash/ACT example is pretty exceptional and I doubt traders will anticipate much chance of that in working out contract values ex ante, and "retirement from national level politics" is a far greyer concept than retiring from Parliament - will go with the wording as is in the draft on that simply for the clear test. I don't know my NZ politics very well - has there been an instance of an MP retiring from Parliament and go on to lead a major party?

In the US, Nixon comes to mind, but he really did exit national politics (I think).

gr: yes possibly - although if traders anticipate these contracts beinbg long lived won't no bundling kill liquidity, or at least allow strong inefficiency to persist? I suppose we can suck it and see, as it were.

Appreciate the feedback folks.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/10/2011 12:18PM by admin.

So far, no.

But it's conceivable an up-and-comer could retire from parliament due to health issues, get them sorted and come back to lead the party. Probably such a person might also "retire from national-level politics" at the same time, though.

Another issue with "retire from parliament", or indeed any 'retiring', is that any person who isn't in parliament at the moment would be forced to be under an Other contract. For example Andrew Little isn't an MP yet but is widely picked as a potential Labour leader and we have a new stock for him.

Simon Power comes to mind. He's resigned from politics and is going to work in an Australian bank, but there's nothing really stopping him from coming back after Key departs if National don't have any great alternatives (which at the moment I don't believe they do).



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/10/2011 12:23PM by Lanthanide.

gr: yes can bundle Rpublicans, is overdue actually.

Lanthanide: yes its conceivable but the issue is a) to be clear whatever happens and b) to control for events reasonably likely to 'pollute' the thing we are trying to forecast. For an unlikely event like you describe, the main thing is to be clear either way about what the contract does in that case. Parliamentary retirement is a simple brightline test that can be described and understood in two words.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/10/2011 12:28PM by admin.