bitcoin

These stocks close in 6 months time (1 jan 2016).

Bitcoin went below $300US at the beginning of the year . It had been dropping since a high of about $1000 in November 2003. It has been discovered that the sharp rise to that $1000 was due to manipulation in the biggest exchange at that time (MT GOX). So it was always going to come way down but nobody had any idea where the new "bottom' might be.

By July 2014 it was $600 and then it went steadily but evenly down to $313 by 1 jan 2015.

Then it went for a sudden dive and was for a brief time (hours) $177 on 14 January 2015.. It went back to over $200 shortly thereafter and every since has traded in the $200-$300 range.

The early adopters of bitcoin are big players in this. They got their bitcoins cheap (eg for a few cents or a few dollars) and much of the talk on bitcoin forums was the impact they and others were having it buying bitcoin at the $220 type level to stop it falling further.

It has recently gone up from this level (is now about $250) but there has not been anything special ( new news, changes to adoption levels etc) that would 'explain' the rise. But bitcoin is highly speculated so rises and falls come and go more often than many other commodities/currencies.

So what do you need to look out for in the next 6 months that could really affect the price ie make it go outside the bounds of $100-$500?

1. what happens in China - ( the Chinese are big speculators, big miners (ie creaters of bitcoin), run many of the biggest exchanges and have a government that intervenes directly on some issues)

2. when some one off events happen that may happen before 1 jan 2016 including being able to buy properly regulated shares in the US in the movement of bitcoin via the ETF by the Winklevoss twins ie people and especially pension funds can get exposure to bitcoin without the risk of actually owning it

Happy to answer any questions anyone may have.

Disclaimer; has stocks in bitcoin

This week has seen a major shift in mood.

There are always lots of "external" things that happen that move the price of bitcoin around but now we have an "internal" issue that may move the price.

Its a little technical but the way bitcoin works may change. It may stay the same but changes may occur if a certain number of people directly involved with running bitcoin want those changes.

Bitcoin is of course run by the people in it (not like a bank) so there are always disputes going on about what internal changes should happen. But most get resolved quickly and easily. But this possible change goes the heart of what some of the founders set up so the dispute is long, loud and bitter.

The way the change will take place will be if certain types of people adopt the variation (called xt), the original is called core.

in terms of ipredict timing whether or not a change will occur may not be known until early 2106 ie after the close of the stock.

Regardless the bitcoin price will start to react to the uncertainty. It is likely it will pull the price down. In the last day as the internal fight has begun being reported in the media the price has dropped about 7% to $232.

This issue though has the possibility of really knocking the price around. ie large enough to bring the unexpected stock options eg "bitcoin to be less than less than $100" into play as it was increasingly unlikely that "external" factors big enough to price outside a $250-$300 band in recent months.

FYI [www.coindesk.com]