Share quantities and starting values

Hi,

I have a few questions on the basics:

How many shares are available for each prediction?
When a new prediction starts, what price does it start at? 50c?

I can't see anywhere that explains how the share price is determined, but assume it varies as trades are made so that when a prediction closes the people expecting a prediction to close for $1 are balanced off by those expecting it to close for 0c.ie it is a zero sum game. Could someone confirm if that's how it works?

Thanks

he is the way I think it works

How many shares are available for each prediction?

There is not a number - if you want to buy 1000 at say 40c and person wants to short sell at that price then a transaction takes place. hundreds of transactions at different prices can take place over the life of the stock.

When a new prediction starts, what price does it start at? 50c?

am not sure but i think so. but as soon as it is opened someone will using the MM quickly move it to another position. Ipredict lose a few cents with each stock they list I assume but recover it when they take a fee from withdrawls

I can't see anywhere that explains how the share price is determined, but assume it varies as trades are made so that when a prediction closes the people expecting a prediction to close for $1 are balanced off by those expecting it to close for 0c.ie it is a zero sum game. Could someone confirm if that's how it works?

yes - best not to think of it in 'share' terms as you will confuse yourself. think of it more like gambling odds - if you think the outcome is very likely to come true ie pay $1 then you might be prepared to buy lots of the stock up to say 95c and make at least 5c profit on the stock you hold - your actual average profit per stock you hold will depend on the quantities and values of each of those quantities you bought on the way to driving the stock to 95c. For example if someone wanted to sell you 100 at 60c on that transaction you will make $40 ( ie 100* (100 cents - 60 cents.) in gambling parlance you are prepared to bet at odds of 6:4. if you are still buying at 95c you are accepting odds of 95;5 or 19 to 1

not most but not all stocks close at $1 (or $0). some election stocks do not have the extreme win/lose position. eg if you buy 100 stocks that party xx will get 57% of the vote you will get the difference between your bet and the actual they achieve - if they achieve 50% you will lose 7 cents ie you will be paid out 50c for stock that cost you 57c. if they get 60% you gain 3 cents. ie you get 60c for stock costing only 57c.

Thanks for your reply. I initially assumed that there were a fixed number of shares for each prediction like there is for a company. Makes sense now though that the quantity is variable with demand.

Single units per quote as a default is a pain IMO.

I would prefer the opportunity to take larger positions in stocks with a 10 or 25 unit default.

With that said, transaction "rake" would be good for the site.


Plops

Ploppapus Wrote:
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> Single units per quote as a default is a pain IMO.
>
>
> I would prefer the opportunity to take larger
> positions in stocks with a 10 or 25 unit default.
>
> With that said, transaction "rake" would be good
> for the site.
>

Yes, I found out that with 1 unit defaults you end up, unless you are smart enough to look ahead at the supply, buying up too much of the stock on thinly traded stocks and bidding up the price!

Nick