Mt Albert by-election stocks

I reproduce a comment I left at iPredict Picks:

Quote
me
A punt on MTA.2ND.GREENS depends on how much faith you have in the market’s predictions for MTA.LEE.LAB and MTA.LEE.NAT. These are trading at 52c and 30c respectively, leaving only 18% of the vote-share for Norman (+ everyone else).

But they’ve been very thinly traded.

Yep. It's a pity there's no MTA.LEE.GREENS option. I'm heavily exposed on MTA.2ND.NAT and am going to stay put... but I'm not feeling particularly optimistic.

Results are in.

MTA.WIN.LABOUR is a winner, as is MTA.2ND.NATIONAL.

MTA.LEE.LAB looks like target price is .6309, and MTA.LEE.NAT will be pointing at .1714.

MTA.WIN and MTA.2ND stocks are now closed, Labour and National stocks paying $1 respectively.

The conditional stocks (MTA.LEE.*) depend on Official Results including Specials. These comprise 5.7% of the vote so the vote share stocks cannot close until 24 June when these results are due to be released.

Official results released.

[www.elections.org.nz]

We intend to close the stocks at the following prices:

MTA.LEE.LAB = 13260/20943 = $0.6331

MTA.LEE.NAT = 3542/20943 = $0.1691

Based on official results here: [www.elections.org.nz]

Calculations look ok?

Should remove informal votes

Yes, nice catch.

MTA.LEE.LAB = 13260/20885 = $0.6349

MTA.LEE.NAT = 3542/20885 = $0.1696

Closing now.