LEAD.GOFF.09

Phil Goff to be replaced as Labour leader in 2009

I'm long on this, and short on DL.KING.09. I figure that if one of them were to be replaced, the other would go too - the gap between their prices allows for a nifty bit of arbitrage.

Other thoughts? It's obviously not one of the more popular stocks...

I would have expected this stock to go up since the announcement [www.stuff.co.nz] regarding a strong Labour Party president who could easily step up to party leader.

Unlikely to occur in 2009 ...perhaps a candidate in 2013 after a couple of years in Parliament from 2011.

It's possible Little will get in in a by election in Wellington in the next year or two, and then take over when Goff leaves after losing in 2011.

i'm not sure Goff will get the chance to lead the party into 2011...i see him being chucked out late 2010 or early 2011...expect Cunliffe will get his go then.

Maybe Goff will be gone, after the Mt Albert by election, Mr 9% on the tv3 poll.