iPredict - pick the new logo

Here's an experimental stock. A bit of market research.

iPredict is rebranding and today we received three design concepts. iPredict has to choose which concept to concentrate on for more development.

Which logo will iPredict staff choose?

Contracts are binary.

iPredict's logo should convey: Trust, Community, Wisdom, and Wealth. The logo that best reflects those criteria will be selected.

Our selection procedure is based on a combination of the opinion of iPredict staff, and opinions received from outside the company. iPredict will take some account of the trading price for IP.LOGO stocks. iPredict may decide no concept logo is worth further development

Full size version of the logo is available here:
[img.photobucket.com]
[img.photobucket.com]
[img.photobucket.com]

iPredict employees and contracts WILL NOT trade on this contract, nor divulge any information on preferences to traders while these contracts are live. iPredict reserves the right not to use the selected logo (or some variant of it) in the final design. iPredict has no financial stake in the outcome of these markets.

Stock closes midday 9 June 2009.

Concept logos are by Richard at www.plasticstudio.co.nz

Feel free, of course, to add your comments - what you like or don't like. If you have your own design ideas, send us an email. We'll tell you how much we like your idea once the stock closes on Tuesday.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2009 04:43PM by admin.

I like the one with the dots it's a modern funky design, but I also like the one with the Owl if your objective is to convey knowledge.

The one with the eye just doesn't do it for me... and could be confusing... "eye-predict"... I dunno just don't like it...

Haha nice stocks. I agree with jmvm re: 'eye', and think the 'dots' is by far the best.

The 'owl' one looks a bit library database-ish.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2009 04:39PM by rene_lp.

Yeah that owl one does look a bit library-ish

[th07.deviantart.com]

and a quick google shows that it might not be too original....

Well, I'm not greatly impressed.

The "owl" looks like a glove puppet none to impressed about the hand. The "eye" would have me worried about some optician wanting to sue about logo copyright. the other option is a bit seventies-ish.

Not one of them conveys Trust, Community, Wisdom, and Wealth.

Seventies-ish?

How so? I like it... but then again I wasn't around to see the 70's

So you will be buying IP.LOGO.NONE then Oracle?

I have to agree - the nicest looking logo (dots) does not convey the attributes listed.

The Eye is too "Big Brother Is Watching You", and the Owl is very "Scholastic Book Services".

Interesting stock though, it was possible to make money simply by sticking out my finger and saying: "Duh, that one looks real pretty!"

NONE is underpriced tbh.

I don't think any of the logos work. The best one is easily the blue dotted one, but it says nothing.

It would be nice to have like IAO with Kiwi specific.

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2009 05:49PM by dutching.

jmvm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Seventies-ish?
>
> How so? I like it... but then again I wasn't
> around to see the 70's

I was and a bit before.


the_master Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So you will be buying IP.LOGO.NONE then Oracle?
>
> I have to agree - the nicest looking logo (dots)
> does not convey the attributes listed.
>
> The Eye is too "Big Brother Is Watching You", and
> the Owl is very "Scholastic Book Services".
>
> Interesting stock though, it was possible to make
> money simply by sticking out my finger and saying:
> "Duh, that one looks real pretty!"

Not before pension day.

The third logo is clearly the best of the three for the reasons given by others but it doesn't really convey any of the attributes that it is meant too. More importantly, there is nothing distinctly "Kiwi" about these logos and yet this site is distinctively Kiwi. Back to the drawing board?

Is it just me, or does the third one kinda look like an eye as well?

"iPredict's logo should convey: Trust, Community, Wisdom, and Wealth."
Trust? Do you mean Trust as Corporation?

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.

I think "Trust, Community, Wisdom, and Wealth" are great attributes to aim for with this logo. Making a clear distinction that the site is about thinking, research and sharing ideas, as opposed to a gambling website, is obviously key. With that in mind, I'm going for the Owl.

The "iPredict" part makes it clear this ain't no library.

This is an interesting stock because making money on it will involve buying the one that you think everyone else will like, rather than being a means of voting for the one you like.

I imagine the designer is feeling a bit down at the moment, with all these comments - if you're reading this, IPREDICT.DESIGNER, cheer up, that is a very difficult brief!

I'd actually love to see an open competition for people to design a new logo - harnessing the creativity of the iPredict community with economic incentives - now THAT sounds like iPredict!

pipe42 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is an interesting stock because making money
> on it will involve buying the one that you think
> everyone else will like, rather than being a means
> of voting for the one you like.

I thought that these stocks are about prediction what iPredict will chose.

Maybe iPredict believe that predictions based on people's bias to their collective favorite outcome (aka Predictocracy).

Along with efficient market hypothesis, preditocracy is just another way to enforce herding behaviour to promote unexposed agendas and make profits.

Though believeing in predictocracy can be altruistic, as the same with "free market" fallacy.

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2009 08:35PM by dutching.

Won't be touching this one with the proverbial 10' pole...

"iPredict has no financial stake in the outcome of these markets."

I beg to differ. I believe that iPredict have quite a large financial stake in it. Why would they pay out on something that everyone has bought into? better to go for something that they will make the least loss/biggest profit on.

I am not saying that they would do this, I am merely making an observation. It is like the top ranking cricket umpire that presides over the test match for his home country. He may get every call right but people will still wonder if he is impartial.

iPredict have to be very very careful with this one.

Where is BKD with IPREDICT.SHUTDOWN?

As a footnote: we have no reason to believe iPredict will act in anything but an exemplary manor with this stock.

I disagree with Goose69 completely on this one (sorry).

Ipredict has a fairly small stake in terms of paying out on contracts, limited to basically the offset of the market maker from its initial setpoints. Most gains and losses in Ipredict are funded by the participants.

Ipredict have a much larger exposure in terms of getting the right branding for thier market, hence selecting an unpopular logo to save a few bucks would be munomentally stupid.

However, the logo selection is fundamentally disconnected from the stock price, which makes it hard to trade for my money. Most stocks have an underlying fundamental that largely determines its outcome, whereas this has a team of people who have promised not to share their opinions with the market.

On the other side of the coin, good on Ipredict for exploring alternate uses for the platform, I expect we could see plenty more of these if this set of stocks is successful, from all kinds of companies interested in what their market thinks.

The fundament question is:
Do we and iPredict believe in preditocracy?
If so, there is a quantum effect, i.e. our bets directly influence outcome.

It makes these stocks interesting, and can we have more stocks with such quantum effect.

I'm predicting they won't choose any of them. They're all OK but nothing stands out as great.

I'm mostly regarding this market as one for "fun". It is a bid odd intellectually to be betting on what some one or some entity will do in the future, when the decision is entirely in their hands. And yes, the concerns about iPredict employees participating in the market are valid ones. On the other hand, it could be an interesting way to see the "wisdom of crowds" in force. Could also present a new way to judge beauty contests and the like.

Self fulfilling prophecy of the wisdom of crowds like Osama’s tapes
– you never know who made them.

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/08/2009 08:48PM by dutching.

I believe I was summoned:

Quote
Goose69
Where is BKD with IPREDICT.SHUTDOWN?

The stock is a prediction about a single decision of a single company, namely iPredict (c.f. upcoming Fonterra stocks). It fits quite nicely within the "business" category of iPredict's remit, I'd say. And it definietly counts as research into prediction-market phenomena.

Of course, having contracts on something iPredict itself will do is a very cool & cheeky piece of self-reference. If I'm anything by training, it's a logician, so I'm lapping this up. What makes the stock fascinating is this:

Quote
stock definition
iPredict will take some account of the trading price for IP.LOGO stocks

To squeeze even better data out of these stocks, I'd suggest adding one that pays out at $1 if iPredict chooses the logo whose corresponding stock is highest-priced at midday 9 June.

Interestingly, I'm guessing that this is precisely the kind of stock iPredict runs for its clients. Prediction markets came into fashion in a big way when HP set one up doing this type of thing (nearly twenty years ago, I think...).

All that said, I'm not touching it. Whatever the opposite of flair is, that's what I have for graphic design.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/06/2009 07:44AM by bkd.

Guys, my point was, the ultimate and final decision of this design lies with iPredict, even if they do take into account in a small way what the market reflects, it is still their decision.

Ultimately by investing in this set of securities, we are trying to predict what piece of art someone will select. It is a very abstract thing with not a lot of logical reasoning, whereas, with other things I have invested in, I'd like to think that logic played some part in the outcome.

I just also think that it is a risky stock for iPredict to run as it is based on a decision they themselves will make. It is not good enough for them to be fair, they have to be seen to be fair.

I love iPredict, and would hate to see them shutdown, or suspended or whatever.

Just my 2c worth...

IPREDICT.SHUTDOWN stock is not about shutting down of iPredict,
it is rather about:
1) sustainability of iPredict business model
2) estimating returns on the players' investment (prediction effectiveness)
3) nz dollar inflation

___

It is difficult to predict, especially others' predictions.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/08/2009 08:45PM by dutching.

Goose69, it is a tricky stock for ipredict to handle, especially as we don't know what weighting the ipredict market will have on their decision.

I suppose it could be completely possible that the market will account for 1% of their final decision and 99% of the decision is sourced elsewhere.

I'd be interested to know if there exists strict rules on how this will be judged. Or if eventually it comes down the decision of a few people and what they 'feel like doing' on the day.

For example if most people they interview decide on Logo3, and the market stays at a 66% probability of this being the case does this mean that logo 3 will be picked based on set rules ipredict's judges have setup OR can it be that even if this happens those that judge the eventual outcome could just say "nah, I don't like any of them" or, "how about we pick logo 1 and develop it to make it better" (even though nobody may have chosen it on ipredict or when interviewed.

Admin, can you tell us if you are bound by strict rules for judging this based on your interviews or whether at the end of the day it is judged on your opinions alone? (We don't need to know specifics, just a yes or a no)

jmvm, they told you what the rules are.

Quote
admin
iPredict will take some account of the trading price for IP.LOGO stocks.

In other words, they will do what they want. My guess is that they will realise that Logo 3 is the nicest of the lot, but it doesn't actually match what they are seeking so they will start from scratch. (I am long on IP.LOGO.NONE.)

It really is like a rigged BBC phone-in poll. In other words, they views of the "public" will be ignored.

Or not.

The skill lies in predicting how much they will be ignored ;-)

EDIT: To add that I am only saying BBC polls are rigged, not iPredict



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/08/2009 09:00AM by the_master.

Yeah I suppose "taking some account" of the trading price isn't measurable. If they were to say that counts 5%, 10%, 50% towards the decision it'd be easier to pick a stock.

I'm bailing out of this one for now, I still like Logo#3 but I agree it doesn't show any of their 4 objectives.

Quote

iPredict's logo should convey: Trust, Community, Wisdom, and Wealth. The logo that best reflects those criteria will be selected.

The logo that best reflects this criteria would be the owl, a symbol of wisdom. It's not the nicest logo but from all three of the logo's it best reflects the criteria.

I think people are taking iPredict's criteria far too literally. Marketers will always have a sting of adjectives that, they claim, are conveyed by their company's logo.

In order to convey wisdom, a logo doesn't need to have an owl or even a picture of Buddha! What is important is, to quote the castle, the "vibe" of the logo. A professional-looking logo, for example, in my opinion conveys, at the least, trust, wisdom and wealth: you would expect an organisation that is trustworthy, wise and wealthy (and so are its participants/members) to have a clean, crisp and professional logo.

On the other hand, if alogo looks a little amateurish, then I don't think those qualities will be conveyed. To test this, ask yourself wether you would you put your money with a bank that had a logo that looked like it had been compiled from clipart? It wouldn't matter that the logo included a picture of a safe, lots of dollar signs and a wise old man!

Hi all, great thread. I wish I could be more specific about our criteria, but what's in the contract is about it.

We (quite deliberately) launched each of the stocks at $0.25. One of the stocks has to close at $1, the others at $0. The market maker settings on all four stocks are identical. The market maker's cost is a function of the difference between initial and closing prices.

That means iPredict has literally zero financial interest in the outcome - the four market makers will cost, in total, exactly the same amount whichever decision we go with.

As a commenter noted, it is not in our interest to distort the market signal - we simply want the best possible logo.

As another commenter noted, there is a self referential aspect to this, and the risk with that is that the market becomes "tipping" i.e. if traders believe market price is all we will base our decision on, then small deviations from initial prices can become magnified regardless of fundamentals. As the contract notes, we are running this by various experts and applying our own intuition.

This stock is experimental - my hope is that it opens the door to using prediction markets as market research.

I'm surprised that "None" is still priced as low as it is. Surely there is better than a 23% chance that the three logos offered will be rejected given that none are much of an improvement over the current meaningless logo?

Surely we can do something that gives Ipredict a distinctly Kiwi identity as well as conveying the other attributes listed?