dunedin stadium

I see Dunedin has announced they have a naming rights sponsor for the stadium and they are close to meeting the funding requirement to meet a February deadline.

If the government comes in with some infrastructure funding it will be icing on the cake

I have been shorting these each time the price goes over 55c. Unfortunately, there is never much volume to make any real in-and-out profits; looks like a stock for the long haul.

There is a protest march tomorrow, can't see it affecting the stock price much though.

Shouldn't all this be moved over the Live Site Stocks discussion on the Dunedin Stadium stock?

I hope that Key's sensible enough not to throw money into a project that even locals generally think isn't worth the expenditure.

Yes, it should be moved over to the live stock area..... perhaps the administrators can do this.

Meanwhile, regarding your comments on local opinion.... of course ratepayers don't want to fund the stadium..... no stadium ever gets local ratepayer support...... but lots of stadiums have central government funding because they recognise the economic benefit and in this time of economic need the government has all the reasons it needs to give a helping hand. Regardless of that, the Council vote looks like going in favour judging by yesterday's vote on the roading changes that are needed.

Bill, there is NO net economic benefit. Check Dennis Coate's work on stadium funding in the US. They're never worth the government's investment. See here for example: [papers.ssrn.com]

Every study showing that they're of net benefit is, in short, fraudulent. They use highly dodgy techniques (crazy multipliers, not accounting for deadweight costs of taxation, etc). Indeed, they're bad enough that I use them as exemplar of how to produce dodgy cost-benefit analyses in the 2xx econ class I teach at Canterbury. You can always produce a cost-benefit analysis showing net benefits, if you're willing to suitably twist away from best practices. And studies funded by sports teams seeking subsidies for stadiums are some of the best examples.

Construction on Dunedin Stadium to commence before 2010

This is my favourite stock so far, despite knowing nothing about it I have banked around $100 simply by buying low (under 50) and selling high (over 50). I do this based on the fact that the close date is so far away the most sensible point for the stock to trade is 50. How long this will apply for I dont know, but it has worked pretty well so far.

I've been building up a bit of short position by selling whenever it seems relatively high; I just can't see them affording it absent a big injection of cash from Wellington.

Government says today it will invest in regional projects where hammers and nails are needed quickly..... I'd have thought this stadium qualified for that funding

-- moved topic --

I merged this post with the general discussion thread - didn't exactly go smoothly but hey its all in one place now

[www.odt.co.nz]

Be interesting as 10 million this was one of the conditions set down by Dunedin Council for their approval of the stadium.

[www.odt.co.nz]
[www.odt.co.nz]

I'm taking up a short position looking at the news out today. Stadium isn't on the government's list and the project seems to have not met funding requirements to proceed.

A stadium seems such a frivolous investment when we're not exactly rolling in cash. It would be thoroughly disappointing if Key were to throw money at this rather than at the hundreds of other infrastructure projects that surely are ahead of it in terms of benefit over cost ratios. We have pretty decent evidence that roading projects actually do contribute to economic growth. I've heard tell that Auckland could use an upgrade to its power substations. Stadiums always and everywhere fail cost benefit analysis, at least in terms of government investment in same. When looking at "stimulus" projects, we can't lose sight of whether the projects actually make any kind of sense. Otherwise we might as well hire people to dig holes and then fill them back in again.

I was reading that corporate and income tax breaks fail cost benefits also, yet this doesn't seem to stop governments from pursuing them.

Regardless of that it appears the stadium is on shakey ground. I suspect the council wants it, and has already poured a lot of money into this (buying land etc), so it will be interesting to see if they can let go of it. I don't know if this is a purely rational argument we are facing. Theres a large amount of personality, politics and ambition tied up in this.

I'll agree that the Council is likely not to be discounting sunk costs appropriately. The calculus may well come down to whether they're more likely to be fired in the next election for wasting money with nothing to show for it or for wasting way more money with something to show for it.

well I've pulled out of my short position now.

Looks like the government are going to look at options for stepping in and supporting the stadium.... I for one would like to see a covered stadium in New Zealand

[www.odt.co.nz]

While it is true the country isn't rolling in cash, I think the move to build the stadium would be a good step as it would create plenty of employment in the area, as well as bringing in cash to the area when it starts being used.

I imagine the governments investment in other infrastucture will give the dcc and the otago regional council the breathing space they need to invest in the stadium... and according to the stadium trust's statement to the media yesterday construction could begin in june.

ORC has voted in favour of the stadium proceeding. So thats $37.5 million looking fairly secure.

Edit: second vote, the funding is committed and conditional on an additional $15million being contributed from the government, or other source.

[www.odt.co.nz]



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/11/2009 04:09PM by ltgorman.

This story from last week might have some relevance...

Preliminary work on the Otago Stadium site at Awatea St could begin as early as June, Carisbrook Stadium Trust chairman Malcolm Farry says.

www.odt.co.nz

Funding request likely to be discussed in cabinet today..... wonder if any comments will come out of that.

I can't work out whether this sounds good or bad. Sounds slightly ominous. I guess we will find out today.

[www.odt.co.nz]

Government to meet $15 million shortfall

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Looks like that's a done deal then

.... two seconds to go and the Otago forward pack is mauling on the tryline..... the ball comes lose, Key takes the pass and he's over the tryline with a signature move.... the whistle sounds, game over and the Dunedin crowd goes wild in support of their team.

.... well what a game, and let's hope those people who said this team didn't have a chance will get behind the stadium now and help build a legacy of success.

LOL williamsheridan, I was hedging here against my rates increase!

Stop the Stadium has dropped its Environment Court appeals against the district plan and roading changes necessary for the stadium project, just days before preliminary hearings were to begin.
...
Carisbrook Stadium Trust chairman Malcolm Farry, when contacted for response, said building may start earlier than expected now the appeal process apparently no longer stood in the way of the project.

www.odt.co.nz

Construction still on track for June by the looks. Long on this one.


"Trust chairman Malcolm Farry said in a statement yesterday that the stadium was on track for completion in time for the Rugby World Cup.

"We are planning for preliminary construction work to start on site within the next three months," Mr Farry said."


[www.odt.co.nz]

What's the remaining uncertainty on this contract then: that the stadium will in fact be roofed?

I don't even know if the roofing is an issue at all, i cant recall the last time i saw it mentioned. As far as I'm aware, one of the biggest selling points of the stadium is that it is fully roofed.