RBNZ OCR 12 March Stocks

im loving the fact 75 is so low. Im long 390 and got them for peanuts - seeing as though 75 is the most likely option, it makes no sense for the price to be hovering around 0.2. Im also short 280 on 100, should prove a good return also.

The experience of recent meetings is tha the RBNZ will go with whatever the market has priced rounded up to the next 25bp increment. On that basis, with 65bps priced, they will go 75bps. i've gone long 50bps and 75bps and agree the latter is cheap..probably should be trading around the 40% mark same as the 50s but I guess the problem is that the RBNZ has never gone 75bps before. Of course they had never moved 150bps either until recently!

Interesting to see 25bp up to 10c this morning

This stock has got to be one of the most roller coaster rides ever!!

A Herald article [www.nzherald.co.nz] today suggests that 8/14 economists are picking a 50bps cut, with the rest evenly distributed at 75 or 100bps, then there is a stuff article [www.stuff.co.nz] which thinks most are predicting a 100bps cut, with westpac expecting a 100bps cut (and they were the only ones to get the last one right i think..??).

There are so many contradicting views out there, I am beginning to think i should just cut my losses and take my gains to date and get out of here!!

I still think 100 points is too drastic a drop this time considering that the RBA didn't move. It doesn't make sense to have such a fast drop when they meet again soon enough and can drop it more gradually now so as to not weaken our currency so fast. My order of stock preference would be 50, 75, 25, 100, OTHER

With this in mind I'm going short on 100

[www.scoop.co.nz] Scoop article about the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association calling for 100bps cut. It seems that the NZMEA has quite a big influnce on monetary policy decisions in this country, with them having started the calls for the agressive OCR cuts to date - might be something to keep in mind.

At the moment I'm still favoring the 75 and 50 bps cuts, but may also cover myself with the 100bps option too!!

I've shorted 100, but I've been burned before by Bollard being softer than I've thought sensible.

For the avoidance of doubt the most up to date poll conducted by Reuters has 9 of 14 economists looking for a 50bp cut, 1 looking for 75bps and 4 looking for 100bps (one of the 4 - Westpac only gives a 30% chance of -100 and says that -50 and -75 are equally likely!). Market is pricing about 65bps still.

PS Sodd001....NZMEA having been calling for 200bps in prior meetings so if they are only calling for -100 I'd take that as suggesting that -100 was too much!

IMHO If the OCR drops 100bps then I hope they have a big box of aspirin for the dollar.

Yeah, I can't see a cut of 100 points at this meeting. It looks like 75 is most likely, then 50, then perhaps either 100 or 25: [www.dailyfx.com]

Dow Jones closes up 379 points, financial stocks up 16%, more food for thought for the RBNZ ahead of tomorrow.

New OCR and RBA stocks tonight fyi